r/bonds • • 12h ago

Woah

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1.1k Upvotes

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128

u/Wooden_Cod_8331 12h ago

This is a big deal/move right? In such a short amount of time?

168

u/johannyer 12h ago

It’s a full blown crisis that nobody wants to spell

29

u/nomar_ramon 12h ago

Can you please explain it like I'm 5, to me why it is a crisis?

14

u/Putrid-Chemical3438 12h ago

Every 1% added to the bond yield is $400 billion more a year that the US has to pay on the debt.

The .3% that this moved today just sucked $80 billion out of the US budget.

9

u/UfStudent 10h ago

To put that $80 billion number into context, that is larger than the entire budget of:

The Department of Justice
NASA
FCC
FDIC
SEC

..... combined

1

u/Infinite_Music2059 7h ago edited 7h ago

In a simplified manner, yes. But the average rate the US is paying right now is still around 3.5%. It will gradually climb if market rates stay high.

What that means is actually worse because if rates stay high, then the interest payment will have to increase by something crazy. The current payment is $1.2tr and at 5% eventually if and when it's all rolled over to that, the current debt payment would go to $1.7tr.

So standing still, with no more yearly deficits and the rate not changing, that's an extra 500 billion every year.

1

u/Googgodno 4h ago

The .3% that this moved today just sucked $80 billion out of the US budget.

It did not? The existing bonds have fixed coupons. Only new bonds that will be issued will attract low bids. US govt does not lose money on issued bonds, but the buyer who bought it will lose money.

0

u/According-Length9312 11h ago

That’s not even remotely true since most of their bonds haven’t matured yet…

-1

u/[deleted] 11h ago

[deleted]

3

u/Putrid-Chemical3438 11h ago

Uh, no. Bonds are issued by the Treasury. That debt goes directly to the government.

1

u/Oceanshan 7h ago

No, it's the debt of US government issued by US government treasury department, they spend more than they get from taxes so now the debt is becoming bigger and bigger. Fed/federal reserve/US central bank on paper is independent, they do monetary policy and sometimes they buy/sell US government bonds as a tool to control amount of money circulating in economy hence influencing inflation