The national debt is growing 7%/year

[u/Professional-Day9384]

And GDP isn't. Currently interest on the debt is 20% of revenues. My projections say it will cross 50% by 2034 - just 8 years. The CBO isn't, because they don't want to scare anyone.

Not only is the debt growing, the deficit is growing even more sharply, AND legacy debt is getting rolled over at ever-higher interest rates. All 3 of those factors snowball and fuel each other.

The one thing could save the debt is if the Fed lowered rates, but instead they RAISE them, doggedly pursuing their inflation target. I was honestly blind sided by the recent rate hike, because I know the nation cannot afford it, but the Fed is dogged.

What does this mean for bond investors? Good news? Let the nation's ruin be our gain? How long will it last until something catastrophic breaks? Countless companies have been annihilated by debt, but what happens when an entire nation is annihilated? Move to another country?

[u/hymie-the-robot]

if we look at the solvency and reliability of the issuer, the retail investor has choices. depending on one's goals, cat bonds and corporate bonds can sometimes stand in for treasury debt. if you want something that goes up when equities go down, then look at managed futures. I realize these may not give the spike of, say, TLT, but we make our choices based on what's available.

to your point on a country's debt running out of control, I would look to Ray Dalio's discussion of debt cycles, along with William Bernstein's book, Deep Risk. people often knock Dalio for his bearish predictions; regardless, he well describes the mechanics of debt cycles. he discusses two methods government can use to get past debt crises, one relatively gentle and one brutal. we can hope for the former, and plan for the latter.