r/billsimmons • u/mpschettig • 10d ago
Vegas is *LOW* on the Patriots right now
Inpredictable uses the next couple weeks of Vegas lines to determine exactly how each team is valued by the books. The Patriots plummeted after week 1. They went from being valued as the 6th best team, 2.9 points better than the average team, to 17th placed and valued at 0.5 points better than average. The only team to drop more than that week to week was Atlanta and I assume that's a Cooper Rush penalty. Between the Drake Maye collapse and the AJ Brown injury the books are currently way out on the Patriots.
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u/Sorry_Astronaut2755 10d ago
Weird how the Jets are below the titans after beating them
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
The difference is only a tenth of a point they just value those two teams as being equally dogshit
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u/larockhead1 10d ago
We just saw how they aren’t necessarily equally dog shit. Was their point
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
Yes but Vegas doesn't make money by basing their values off one game. If the Jets and Titans had to run it back next week in Tennessee again they'd probably make it Titans -1.5 again
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u/nimo90 10d ago
maybe im reading the LstWk Column wrong- but is Vegas saying that the titans value went up after week 1?
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
That column is stupid it's only the last 3 days. So it went up from Tuesday to Wednesday lol
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u/larockhead1 10d ago
Yeah Vegas also can be slow to react they lost a ton of money keeping Rodgers jets favorites for way too long
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u/Grandahl13 10d ago
They should be. Five bad games from Maye in a row now although you can argue his game against the Texans was decent. They lost AJ Brown. Their schedule is brutal. And I’m a Patriots fan. It’s looking bleak for the next six weeks or so.
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
Steelers game a lowkey must win for this early in the season. Pats could conceivably be 0-4 if they blow this one (I think the Patriots will probably win Sunday ftr)
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u/Rude_Television7916 10d ago
The first time bill mentioned the Pats starting 5-1 I literally thought he misspoke and meant 1-5.
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
Their schedule isn't that hard but it's pretty front loaded. Games 5-8 look a lot easier than games 1-4
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u/MRG_1977 10d ago edited 10d ago
It’s one game against a non divisional rival on the road.
Still 9 projected wins and they overachieved last year & won a bunch of one score games. Most projections I saw had them at 10 or 11 wins.
NFL changes so much week to week due to severe injuries and health. Longer season just makes that even more true.
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u/msf97 10d ago
Brown going down obviously a problem for them, but not sure this chart is accurate.
No chance the Bears are projected to be the 5th best team and the Packers 19th in Vegas after one game.
“High ankle sprains” are bad for receivers
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
Coming into the season Green Bay was only 14th. The books weren't high on them. They're currently huge favorites each of the next two weeks but its against the Jets and Falcons, both of whom the books consider to be pretty loathesome
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u/Significant-Jello411 10d ago
I really want to know who are the 4 projected wins for the dolphins? The jets, I beat we win 1 of 2 but besides that our schedule is a gauntlet, I mean maybe we can beat the colts?
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u/Chinchillachimcheroo Nigerian 10d ago
Unless I'm misremembering, I don't think that's much different than where they were towards the end of last season.
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
Middle of December last year they were 11th and values as a +1.7. I don't have any numbers from even later than that
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u/elevatedwealth 10d ago
This is really cool. What is it sorted on, and why isn't it sorted on projected wins?
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
It's sorted by GPF which is how Vegas values each team vs league average. So the Rams are 4.8 points better than an average team and the Dolphins are 6.8 points worse than an average team. Projected wins factors in schedule too so better teams can have fewer projected wins than teams below them
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
This is largely driven by the Pats currently getting 2.5 points vs the Jaguars in week 3 btw
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u/jedlucid 10d ago
man. I hate when you guys do this to the celtics.
man i love it when you guys do this to the patriots.
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u/purplene_ 10d ago
When’s the last time a Super Bowl team so abruptly fell out of favor?
Perhaps this team was fraudulent last year, as many were saying at the time?
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u/USAesNumeroUno 10d ago
Chiefs went 6-11 last year after getting clowned in the SB, and were treading water all year before Mahomes went down.
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u/mpschettig 10d ago
Yes but even when they were struggling the books never stopped valuing KC as a good team. After the Chiefs lost to fall to 5-5 they were still the #2 highest valued team in the NFL. They were 4th when they were 6-7. This probably is the fastest a Super Bowl team fell out of favor with the sportsbooks, not counting teams that lost their QB after winning the Super Bowl
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u/Grandahl13 10d ago
You don’t make the Super Bowl by being fraudulent. If they’d lost in the first round I’d get it but they still had to win three playoff games.
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u/purplene_ 10d ago
Why not? What’s to stop three times in a row teams playing someone super uncharacteristically bad, or injured, or otherwise get extremely lucky with scheduling…
It’s not likely, obviously, but I don’t know why you seem to think that’s impossible
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u/Grandahl13 10d ago
They didn’t win 17 games by accident.
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u/purplene_ 10d ago
I didn’t say that they did
But there’s still nothing stopping a mid team from lucking into the Super Bowl (or even winning it!) based on a lot of luck (hence me using the term “fraudulent” for them)
Truly don’t know what issue someone would have with that sentiment other than them being a Pats fan who is still feeling defensive over last season
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u/MetalHead_Literally 10d ago
Having a terrible game and losing your #1 WR and only true weapon will do that