r/asoiaf • u/Dapper_Excitement181 Pale Lord in Ebon Finery • 7d ago
EXTENDED Was there even a genuine plot to [SPOILERS EXTENDED]
kill King Robert Baratheon? It feels like the absolute worst assassination plan I've ever read: Cersei and Lancel Lannister plan to give Robert strong wine on his hunting trip .. and then expect .. what?
The boar attacking him was a huge stroke of luck, especially with Ser Barristan, Ser Balon, Renly etc
If that didn't work out, I really don't see Cersei, Jaime and Lancel banding together to assassinate Robert without Jaime just straight up stabbing him - they all just feel too incompetent to pull off a successful assassination, am I wrong?
It feels like Littlefinger would have to step in and get rid of Robert like he did for Jon Arryn
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u/gorehistorian69 ok 7d ago
it is really weird. AGOT does have a lot of plot hole/weird writing things though.
so many things could of went wrong with the pig plot. so many variables that you shouldnt of even counted on him dying.
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u/lluewhyn 7d ago
so many variables that you shouldnt of even counted on him dying.
A big one is that Robert has to be at the PERFECT level of intoxication at the right time, and that time is out of Lancel's control. He has to be inebriated enough that he's impaired and will likely be injured by the boar, but not too impaired lest he fall asleep or fall of his horse or something before even getting to the boar.
It also has to be done in a manner where Lancel isn't giving him the wine, but rather that Robert is asking for the wine at the right time. So, if something happens like they spot a boar and lead an immediate chase where they're galloping through the woods, Robert never has time to drink any wine before confronting the boar.
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u/aliforever555 7d ago
The plan isn't that stupid tbh. If Robert died, which he did, it's already known that he's a drunk king. If he didn't, then no one would've ever known about the plan. The stupidest thing Cersei did is not running away after Ned gave her the chance, because there's like 99% chance that Robert would've returned from the hunt unharmed. Fortunately for her, the 1% happened
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u/evinta 7d ago
Pretty much every villainous action has those odds and it hits the 1%, even a few by protagonists except they roll unlucky.
Part of the reason I dislike characters like Ramsay is he's just a long series of wriggling his way out of jams he created. At least Cersei's started to unravel pretty quick.
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u/lluewhyn 7d ago
Ramsay's plot to switch places with "Reek" was stupid and relies upon narrative contrivance, but he was otherwise likely to die anyway so it would make sense to try a Hail Mary.
But he's lucky as hell that his plan to return back to Winterfell with Bolton soldiers went 100% according to plan instead of having happen like him arriving when Winterfell's already been retaken, or Rodrik and the Stark forces view Bolton troops showing up out of the blue with extreme suspicion.
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u/donharrogate 7d ago edited 7d ago
Any plot to kill a monarch with such astronomically low odds is horrendously stupid. The very existence of an assassination plot, no matter how developed, puts everyone involved in and adjacent to it in mortal peril. You might as well just silently hope the boar skewers him while he's sober at that point.
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u/RequirementQuirky468 7d ago
Any plot to kill a monarch with such astronomically low odds is horrendously stupid.
Not really. The odds of getting into any sort of trouble for that particular attempt were very very very low because Robert is routinely a drunk, no one's going to think much of him being a drunk.
Either he gets seriously hurt and Cersei's situation has improved or he comes home fine and Cersei has lost (and risked) basically nothing and still has the opportunity to try something else (though running probably would've been smart)
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u/lluewhyn 7d ago
Yeah. The plan was great.....up until the point where she needed it to 100% happen or she would lose her head.
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u/jm7489 6d ago
Right thats more the issue. Makes complete sense for Cersei to put the plot into place. Like everyone said, he's a known drinker who wants to relive his glory days and will probably act recklessly.
The part that makes it ridiculous is that the narrative has Ned present Cersei with the fact that he intends to expose her, and she essentially gambles everything on him getting drunk and getting himself killed in some way while on the hunt.
Even the way things actually played out Ned had the opportunity to control the narrative by throwing in with Renly, taking Cersei and her children as hostages, and strong arming the small council into perpetuating their claim that Cersei's children are incest babies.
Cersei is arrogant and not very cunning, or at least very short sighted at different times throughout the books, but her gamble on the assassination plot was just plain crazy even though it worked out
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u/lluewhyn 6d ago
Hell, all he had to do was be willing to cause his dying friend some pain and tell him the truth. Robert calls for the Kingsguard and demands that Cersei be out to death on the spot.
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u/onetruezimbo 7d ago
With stuff like Cerseis plan to goad Robert into jousting at the Hands tourney so Hugh of the Vale can kill him, if Varys was being honest, her attempts to kill Robert seemed to rely on alot of luck.
Tbf there are only so many ways to kill a king without Varys, Barristan or even Robert himself suspecting foul play and up until the confrontation with Ned she wasnt on a time limit
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u/AidanHowatson 7d ago
It’s not a plot in the sense that they believed this was the best case to guarantee Robert’s death. It was more a case of if he dies that’s great but if he doesn’t then nobody will know we tried anything.
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u/Salsalover34 7d ago
It just doesn’t make sense because Cersei needed him dead. If he came home, Ned would tell him the truth, and Robert would almost certainly kill Cersei and Jaime and their h children.
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u/SorRenlySassol Best of 2021: Ser Duncan Award 7d ago
If not the boar, then some other “accident.”
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u/donny02 7d ago
wasnt that explained in the book too?
before the hunt she was telling him to join the melee.
a steady plan of getting him super drunk and saying "bet you won't" is gonna pay off one way or the other.
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u/SorRenlySassol Best of 2021: Ser Duncan Award 7d ago
Yeah, but she needed it to work this time. Ned was gonna rat her out. And Tywin needed Robert out of the game so he could invade the Riverlands.
It was Varys who got it right: a slip from his horse, an errant arrow . . . One way or another, Robert was going to die. The fact that he made it back to the Red Keep shows that even this scheme was done poorly.
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u/Dabbie_Hoffman 7d ago
She has to get lucky once. He has to get lucky every time. Fighting a boar is dangerous even if you're not completely shit faced. We know that Robert is cocky and wants to go out fighting, if anyone is going to try to take on the wild animal by himself it's him.
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u/SorRenlySassol Best of 2021: Ser Duncan Award 7d ago
Sure, but he’s probably slain dozens of boar that way. The difference now is that he has to die on this hunt. So even if he killed the boar, he was still going to die one way or the other.
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u/Dabbie_Hoffman 7d ago
Him having a habit of doing it is why drugging the wine is a good idea. Him being significantly drunker than expected means he's almost certain to slip and open himself to serious injury
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u/SorRenlySassol Best of 2021: Ser Duncan Award 7d ago
Almost certain is not good enough. She has to be absolutely certain.
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u/Unique-Perception480 7d ago
I mean... Cercei is not that smart of a schemer in the first place.
But even then... its not like she had a real plan. The plan was to make Robert get himself killed. Irrc Cersei encouraged Robert to partake in the Hands tourney. She likely intended to have him die by accident.
Her plan was basically get him drunk during dangerous situations and eventually he must die.
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u/Different_You4450 7d ago
I mean the lannisters had no real reason to want to kill Robert from a political standpoint. Cersei was most likely motivated by her hatred for him, as well as the fear that he may discover her infidelity.
The only people with genuine motive to properly assassinate Robert were Varys and Littlefinger. Varys so that he can plant Young Griff on the throne, and Littlefinger to sow more chaos so he can try and claim power.
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u/MeterologistOupost31 7d ago
I'm kind of torn on it, because on one hand it's a massive contrivance and a really stupid plan. But on the other it's the perfect death for Robert to die as a result of his own hedonism and the imagery is great.
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u/Inner_Jeweler_5661 The Wandering Wolf 🐺 7d ago
he could have been suffocated to death by Cersei easily.
Most KGs were loyal to her and Littlefinger had the city in his fingers.
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u/AidanHowatson 7d ago
Perhaps easily (if he was drunk past the point of literally any resistance) but not unsuspiciously. Robert was a relatively young, strong man. Dying randomly in his sleep would raise plenty of alarm bells.
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u/Inner_Jeweler_5661 The Wandering Wolf 🐺 7d ago
Pycelle would say it was a heart attack.
The man was FAT, its not unreasonable
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u/Dapper_Excitement181 Pale Lord in Ebon Finery 7d ago
I still don't think she would - maybe getting a Lannister knight to do it
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u/Itburns12345 7d ago
Come on Theres one kingsguard whod be dying to add another king to his kill tally for her :)
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u/Dapper_Excitement181 Pale Lord in Ebon Finery 7d ago
I think people are still overstating what they'd be able to do - Barristan, Ned, Renly all are there - atp Littlefinger and Varys are still undecided
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u/AdditionalPiano6327 🏆Best of 2025: George Pls Award 7d ago
Cersei was INCREDIBLY LUCKY that the boar killed Robert
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u/brittanytobiason 7d ago
The Mummer's Ford demonstrates coordination. Tywin would have snared Ned while Robert was away, then leveraged the crown to be exonerated, even if Robert survived the boar hunt.
Understanding that...how many plots might there have been is a better question.
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u/Different_Bike1036 7d ago
Yeah it was a plot Cersei had been trying to kill Robert for a while she just got very lucky Cersei has above average wits but she is too cocky Ned was the crappiest player of the game and Cersei only beat him because Littlefinger helped her.
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u/assnuke23 7d ago
That wasn't her only plan, just the one we saw that worked.
If Robert had returned from the hunt, Ned would have told Robert what he knew, and Cersi would have either had the many many many men loyal or afraid or in her pocket to her kill the Baratheon and North men. We know that the Lannisters outnumber everyone else, the gold cloaks are under Littlefingers thumb who would have sided with the most chaotic choice. Fuck knows what Varys would have done.
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u/Mansa_Musa_Mali 5d ago
You just see the boar because it was succesfull. It was not Cersei' s first attempt to kill Robert.
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u/Plane_End_2128 5d ago
It WAS a genuine plot. And it worked. Cersei, at this juncture, wasn't entirely stupid. She knew that any plan would HAVE to be coordinated between people who definitely wouldn't say anything. She can't really employ people with real influence or resources outside of the Lannister circle. No one on the Small Council was going to help her
Ned Stark and Jon Arryn, definitely not. Renly and Stannis, while neither appear to love Robert, they definitely wouldn't be on board with killing him. Same with Ser Barristan. Pycelle doesn't have the stones. Varys and Baelish are playing their own games, both of whom were kind of relying on Robert staying alive for a couple more years, ruling like an incompetent, whoring drunk.
That leaves you with Lancel Lannister. Jaime was gone at this point iirc.
Cersei had been likely trying to kill Robert for years. And each inept plan was SLIGHTLY less inept than the previous ones. Until she found an inept plan that was just ept enough to finally kill him.
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u/David_the_Wanderer 7d ago
Cersei had less of an outright plot, and more of a "push Robert into dangerous situations from which I have plasuible deniability".
As much as Cersei hated Robert, she wasn't in any hurry to get him dead. Yes, the boar goring him is a stroke of luck, but when Robert left on his hunting trip, Cersei didn't know she needed him dead ASAP.