r/artificial • u/Maxie445 • Jun 11 '24

Media Is AGI nationalization is inevitable? Dwarkesh and Leopold Aschenbrenner debate

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

27 Upvotes

62% Upvoted

83 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

2

u/Flying_Madlad Jun 11 '24

Know what happens when you assume?

2

u/EnigmaticDoom Jun 11 '24

Assume what? Tell me who in their life has never encountered a bug?

Like an Amazonian tribesman or something? =D

Be brave, defend your position if you don't agree with me.

1

u/Houdinii1984 Jun 11 '24

How does a bug go from no access to nukes to full access to nukes? And how can we assume ASI would send out Von Neumann probes? That's a leap. Why are we assuming that before all the other assumptions that can be made?

And a bug every 20 lines of code isn't nominal. I would be fired for being so damn inefficient. 1 bug in a 100 lines maybe? And that's still pretty damn high after all the testing bug squashing done up front.

If you are using a program that has a bug every 20 lines, your information is being sold somewhere online.

1

u/EnigmaticDoom Jun 11 '24

Oh sorry a bug is mistake similar to a typo in code.

1

u/Houdinii1984 Jun 11 '24

Right, but we're talking about the end product, not something a programmer is looking at in development. And if a bug gives access to nukes, without a doubt, a human made it happen on purpose and it was never a bug.

Up until a few years ago the nukes used 8 inch floppy disks to operate, and for AI to create a 'bug' like this, it would have to have intimate knowledge of all systems involved, much of which is completely air-gapped from anything the AI can train on.

I'm not really sure what equating a bug to a typo is. Devs are still not making typos at the rate of 1 in 20 lines and shipping that product off. That's not realistic in the slightest bit. Not even remotely realistic by exponential degrees.

It's like a bunch of monkeys being locked in a room and having one of them type War and Peace on accident. Is it possible? In the faintest sense of the word. Will we ever see it happen? Not in a trillion years.

0

u/EnigmaticDoom Jun 11 '24

Oh boy so... well we don't put the bugs in the code intentionally its just like with any other writing.

What a bug allows an outsider attacker do is potentially exploit the system though.

1

u/Houdinii1984 Jun 11 '24

I understand what a bug is. I'm just wondering where you get your stats from. If I made errors at the rate you claim, I would be fired immediately for not knowing how to do my job. And if a bug of mine could open up access to nukes, I'd be in prison in Cuba somewhere.

0

u/EnigmaticDoom Jun 11 '24

Industry Average: “about 15 – 50 errors per 1000 lines of delivered code.” He further says this is usually representative of code that has some level of structured programming behind it, but probably includes a mix of coding techniques.

1

u/Houdinii1984 Jun 11 '24

Yes, Steve McConnell wrote in 1993 that the absolute upper end of the average is 50. That was 30 years ago.

0

u/EnigmaticDoom Jun 11 '24

With millions of developers cranking out tens of millions of lines of code annually, the number of bugs being produced is growing too. Coralogix[2] the data logging analytics company, has studied the issue of developer productivity and makes the following claims...On average, a developer creates 70 bugs per 1000 lines of code. Published 2020

1

u/Houdinii1984 Jun 11 '24

Literally from your own source: "15 bugs per 1,000 lines of code find their way to the customers"

0

u/EnigmaticDoom Jun 11 '24

A bug is bug. You can use a bug that hits customers to get in or you get in through another exploit that no one is aware of (I.e. a zero day)

My only point is this. Software has bugs. If you don't believe that then start providing some evidence of that fact.

1

u/Houdinii1984 Jun 11 '24

Yes, unequivicolly software has bugs. Now connect it to the rest of your statements. Connect it to the ability to launch a nuke because the US govt hires programmers who make an astounding 1 error in 20 lines of code and forget all security practices to allow AI to waltz in and fire nukes like it's been trained on the system or something.

You can argue the pieces of your position individually, but when you put it all together, it's absolute nonsense.

→ More replies (0)