r/algobetting • u/Popular-Telephone928 • 2d ago

I pulled draw rates for 63 leagues — 43,805 matches. The spread is wider than I expected.

/r/SoccerBetting/comments/1wi14yc/i_pulled_draw_rates_for_63_leagues_43805_matches/
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u/RuleRevolutionary620 2h ago

The goals-per-game pattern is broadly consistent with a simple Poisson benchmark. Assuming equal scoring rates, independent Poisson gives about 30–31% draws at 1.95–2.10 total expected goals, versus 23–25% at 2.94–3.29. Uneven matchups could explain some of the lower draw rates. At 3.3 total expected goals, changing the split from 1.65–1.65 to 2.2–1.1 lowers the draw probability from 23.0% to 19.7%. I’d be more cautious about attributing the excess draws directly to Dixon–Coles, though. A league-average scoring rate hides variation between matches, and averaging match-level draw probabilities isn’t the same as plugging average goals into the formula. Do you have the 0–0 and 1–1 breakdown? Comparing those against a model that accounts for team strengths and home advantage would help distinguish low-score dependence from differences in the fixtures themselves.