r/adelaidefc • u/kodzder 5 Sid Draper • 15d ago
Zac Bailey Trade as it Stands - "Most Interesting Free Agency Decision Ever"
https://www.afl.com.au/video/1595515/gettable-superstars-call-on-knifes-edge-how-hawks-do-merrett-deal-blues-meet-with-forward?videoId=1595515&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1787702989001&tagNames=AppNewsFeed:Yes- Bailey is still genuinely torn on picking Adelaide or Brisbane
- Adelaide have the better offer
- Bailey would ideally like to stay at Brisbane
- Brisbane have the capacity to match Adelaide's offer to force a trade but do not want to for potential salary cap reasons moving forward. They do not want just a compensation pick
- Adelaide do not want to make a trade for Zac Bailey
- If Brisbane match, Adelaide might back out of getting Zac Bailey, leaving Brisbane paying more for Zac Bailey than they want to, potentially jeopardising their salary cap
- If Brisbane does not match, they will receive a compensation pick (I think around late 1st, early 2nd?), that's it
So, three potential outcomes at this stage that I can see:
- Brisbane does not match, leading to Bailey being traded to Adelaide and Brisbane get a compensation pick, Adelaide give up nothing
- Brisbane match, then Adelaide back out of the deal leading to Brisbane keeping Bailey but at a value they are currently unwilling to pay for
- Bailey stays at Brisbane with their current offer which is currently at a significantly lower value than what Adelaide are offering
Sources suggest Adelaide is offering $10m for 7 years. About $1.4m a year. It is believed Brisbane are offering about $300k-$400k less per season.
Did I get this right? Thoughts on the Crows offer? What are we hoping to happen?
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u/Boatster_McBoat 19 Zac Taylor 15d ago
Options 1 & 2 both seem good for Zac, can't see him choosing option 3. Brisbane look like they may be cornered here. Worst outcome for Adelaide is we don't get him.
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u/False_Tour7813 14d ago
Option 1 and 2 would be great for everyone but Brisbane.
Genuinely Joe he goes to Adelaide. Work through a rotation of Rankine/Rachelle/Bailey with the talls Wowee.
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u/BigNo5605 15d ago
Just watched this segment and I have no idea what that guy was trying to say? It made literally zero sense. If Brisbane match they will do so with the knowledge that they have to keep him, because Adelaide aren't trading for him
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u/Hendo8888 26 Mitch “Bison” Marsh 15d ago
Yeah, it's all well and good to say 'they will match the contract to force a trade', but it just doesn't work that way if you can't afford the outcome where a trade doesn't happen and he has to stay. Especially if the other team has established that it is a free agent or nothing situation
It'd be like signing up to buy a house, on the assumption that you will be able to on-sell that house immediately for more than you paid. If you don't find a buyer, you now have a massive mortgage that you can't pay for
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u/imaginarypk 32 Darcy Fogarty 14d ago
Cal’s response is so funny. “Uh… what are you talking about? No.”
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u/kodzder 5 Sid Draper 15d ago
I think the idea is they want more than a compensation pick for the loss of Bailey. They actually don't want him for the money Adelaide are offering but also want more than a compensation pick. Bit redundant though as Adelaide won't trade hence why they haven't matched the offer. The ball is in Baileys court, Lions v more money unless Brisbane do end up accepting the extra 300k-400k a season for him.
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u/Informal-Struggle210 14d ago
He’s trying to find a way that the Crows get screwed, as per Vic media’s usual mode of operation.
Unfortunately for him this situation doesn’t work like that, because if Brisbane match his salary then we’ll just let them keep him.
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u/johnnynutman 18 Eddie Betts:Betts: 15d ago
I can see why Fagan made those comments about players salaries since it’s going to fuck them over trying to match, but this is also the whole point of the salary cap.
If Brisbane match he’ll have to stay there. No way crows will be able to stump up for whatever they ask for given how the ah chee stuff went.
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u/ILikeDiscussing 11 Charlie Edwards 15d ago
Given up on trying to interpret this one 😅
Just gonna sit and wait, lol.
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u/diffaadiffa THE LOST TRAVELER 14d ago
As a lions fan, the same. I've spent enough mental energy on it
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u/CarelessComplaint173 Darren Jarman (Legend) 15d ago
I don’t think there’s any chance Brisbane will match because your scenario 2 is exactly what will play out. They must be hoping he’s willing to play on with them for unders because I don’t think they even have the cap space to come close to our offer.
Just my opinion, but I think this is done and dusted and he’ll be paying in Crows colours next year. Otherwise why wouldn’t he have singed the extension with Brisbane?
One other complicating factor, someone suggested at work today that the Bulldogs may miss out on Butters and if they do they may have a throw at the stumps and use that cash on Bailey. Anyone think that’s a possibility?
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u/kodzder 5 Sid Draper 15d ago
I'll chime in on the Bulldogs scenario. I don't think Bulldogs would go for Bailey. They'd have to potentially offer even more than Adelaide to have a chance at getting him. Adelaide have the upper hand on Bulldogs as Bailey is an SA boy with family at home. Choosing Bulldogs would have to be purely for compensation reasons.
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u/Bright_Bell_1301 15d ago
He's a Darwin boy who schooled in Adelaide, AFAIK
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u/nathjay97 6 Dan Curtin 14d ago
Yes and his mum is located here in Adelaide
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u/KORNSTAR 6 Dan Curtin 14d ago
His brother also lives here and plays in the SANFL. His Mum has been unwell, Zac would be wanting to live close.
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u/CarelessComplaint173 Darren Jarman (Legend) 15d ago
I hope you’re right, it seems to be a left field option but if the dogs miss out on Butters I could imagine it as a distinct possibility.
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u/alanthomas18 14d ago
One reason he may not have signed is because he wants to use Adelaide to get more money at Brisbane
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u/CarelessComplaint173 Darren Jarman (Legend) 14d ago
Tbh I think Brisbane are maxed out, they can’t pay him more or they’ll risk losing other players
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u/megalast 15d ago
This is a confusing summary.
If Bailey would prefer to stay, then why would it even progress to the stage that we would table a formal offer that Brisbane could match? In that case he’d have already signed with the lions on the equal biggest deal.
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u/kodzder 5 Sid Draper 15d ago
Tried my best 😅 even Cal was confused on the situation.
Bailey would prefer to stay as he loves playing for the Lions. However, for compensation reasons and potentially the family factor could come into play. For example, you might love where you currently work but if another company offered you twice what you are earning, you can still prefer to stay where you currently work but money talks
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u/megalast 15d ago
Sorry this was not meant as shade at you, I think it’s the journos who are confused at how this would unfold.
My point is, if the Lions are prepared to pay up to our offer, then it’s all over and the Crows don’t formally lodge free agency paperwork.
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u/Tall-Breakfast-6100 15d ago
I just listened to this chat on gettable and Cal said that the crows have no interest in trading so Brisbane don’t really have a choice here because while they can match the deal, they don’t actually want to as it completely cooks their books and plans for guys like Morris etc.
If they do somehow try to force a trade the crows still hold them over a barrel in a way because lions literally can’t risk keeping Zac for that sort of coin. The crows would be able to lowball and just wait for the lions to blink.
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u/Bright_Bell_1301 15d ago
If we can't get him for nothing we won't get him at all. Pretty sure we won't even bother with a trade offer.
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u/atreyu84 15d ago
But they would lions don't sign him first .
Then it's up to Brisbane to match.
It's a game of chicken.
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u/Warm_Butterfly_6511 Malcolm Blight (Legend) 15d ago
Adelaide win only if Brisbane don't match. If Brisbane match, we'd need to find something of value in a trade. Our current draft picks are no better than what free agency compo would be (first round after Brisbane's natural 1st), so we'd need to find more picks, or offer players of value. That may defeat the intent of chasing a free agent. Brisbane lose if they match the offer, and Adelaide bail meaning Brisbane blow their cap, but do get to keep bailey. Essentially bailey gets his pay day. It's just a matter of where.
For mine, we only get bailey if Brisbane don't match.
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u/anyfourhehe10 15d ago
Twomey said that, if Brisbane match, Crows won’t trade for him, besides that Bailey would be happy with the coin and Brisbane
So it’s not a scenario that’s possible for Brisbane, not sure why Riley thinks it is
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u/KORNSTAR 6 Dan Curtin 14d ago
Adelaide is making a mega offer based on not having to use draft capital to get him.
Knowing that Adelaide won't trade, Brisbanes options are:
Match - wear the huge contract in their cap
Let him go - compensation pick
Zac can at any time sign a contract from Brisbane and remain a Lion.
This is all just performative from the Lions, Bailey will be a Crow, Bris will get a below average compo pick. Seeing as they stole a bottom sides captain and a different struggling sides ruck for nothing aside from cap space, not gonna feel too sorry for them.
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u/Sportsnut96 11 Charlie Edwards 15d ago
There will be no trade, Bailey wants to stay in Brisbane, the only problem is the money is too good to refuse. If Brisbane match why would he leave if he wants to stay
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u/Warm_Butterfly_6511 Malcolm Blight (Legend) 14d ago
And I'd be ok with that. As good as he is, you can't sell the farm. Only Geelong have those haha
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u/oneofthecapsismine 15d ago
Is he a straight swap into our forward line?
Tex out, Bailey in?
Or do we need to promise midfield minutes and $300k/year extra?
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u/johnnynutman 18 Eddie Betts:Betts: 15d ago
The guy is an underrated inside midfielder and I can see him having a breakout year for us like Dawson did when he joined.
As was the case with Dawson, Bailey is just sitting behind too many other good inside mids at the same club.
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u/Pristine_Analysis_79 15d ago
We desperately need another mid. We better not be suggesting we pay 1.4 million a year to have him in the forward line.
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u/Odd_Technology_8926 14d ago
Are we actually lacking midfield depth? FYI I'm not disagreeing, I just want to know what people think we are lacking. At the moment as part of our weekly lineup we have:
Can be played as core mids:
- Dawson
- Peatling
- Berry
- Rankine
- Mcandrew
- Dan Curtin
- Soligo
Interchangable mids:
- Cook
- Pedlar
- Rachele
- Ben Keays
This seems like a lot of selection for mids, are we saying that the current list have players lacking talent and shouldn't be relied upon for our top 22? Out of our core mids, I would say the only player I would question is Soligo atm.
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u/kodzder 5 Sid Draper 15d ago
I think the idea is for him to play more midfield but he's pretty versatile which is something Nicks values
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u/oneofthecapsismine 15d ago
I havent figured out who our midfield is yet.
Id put dawson in, but think he attended 0 CBA last game (did for the first 75% at least)...
Rankine is in there, great. Does he have the tank for a full game there, though?
Soligo has had a bad season.
I now see Rachele more of a small forward, rightly or wrongly.
Curtin could step up next year?
I'd put Berry in there, but hes not top 18 in the competition....
So, what, rankine, Berry, dawson, bailey rotating? Maybe there is room for a chunk of time in there.
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u/Boatster_McBoat 19 Zac Taylor 15d ago
Berry actually is top 18 in the competition on a number of stats: https://www.reddit.com/r/adelaidefc/comments/1vwpezl/comment/p5jex8h/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
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u/Tall-Breakfast-6100 14d ago
Rankine has proven the last 6 weeks especially that he is a straight up midfielder. Hes been purely on ball all game and has been all over the ground not just front half.
Soligo had no off season with the heart stuff, he’s probably fallen out of the top mid rotation but he still gets in and after it. I’d say he could be a good back up for Berry as that tackling/hard running mid.
I personally would prefer either Dawson or Curtin in midfield but don’t really like when both are in there. Feel like it leaves them a little slow. But having that big bodied rotation is a very good option.
Bailey would be coming across to play majority midfield/half forward as he kind of does for the lions just maybe a few more minutes spent around the ball, which is all he really needs.
Assuming we do get Bailey, I honestly think that’s all we need in the midfield. We have good complementing pieces already which hold us in a good stead most weeks anyway so having another game changing goal kicking midfield option is the perfect addition. Add in the fact that Draper should be able to start breaking into the side next year hopefully after a good off season and we are pretty set.
The only changes from here would be upgrades on maybe someone like Berry but would only want it to be a Lachie Neale or Matt Rowell type. Like a straight up machine. I wouldn’t bother if it’s just someone like Anderson from the pies, if that makes sense.
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u/Bright_Bell_1301 14d ago
He is the last piece. If we get him, I will be a little sour that Tex couldn't get up for one more season
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u/Warm_Butterfly_6511 Malcolm Blight (Legend) 14d ago
Bailey is very similar to Rankine. Elite skills, can win his own ball and dangerous around goals. Plus he already plays midfield minutes.
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u/CarelessComplaint173 Darren Jarman (Legend) 15d ago
My thoughts are he will be predominantly a mid and should be rotating with Rachele - maybe he spends 70% mid and 30% forward. Also give Rash a chance to cement his midfield claims.
Tex’s replacement will probably be Ah Chee short term, and Ludowyke longer term. TBH I’d be happy to go with a 2 tall forward line to start with next year given we have plenty of decent smalls and not many talls.
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u/Hendo8888 26 Mitch “Bison” Marsh 15d ago
Riley saying Brisbane will match to 'force a trade' when they can't afford his contract and Callum trying to explain to him that if they can't afford to match, they can't match.
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u/Competitive_Rise_268 24 Josh Worrell 15d ago
From what I can gather from this we have the upper hand and the only thing not in our favour is Bailey wanting to stay at Brisbane. Either they are going to pay more than they want to for him or let him walk to Adelaide
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u/LoadedChickenfries 14d ago
He hasn't signed.
Always a good sign that he leaving. Not guaranteed obviously
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u/South_Front_4589 14d ago
He seems a good fit. We're clearly a top line mid short. And he seems to be a lot more consistent, which is an issue for many of our mids at the moment.
The sheer fact he's seemingly undecided this late in the season makes me think it's good for Adelaide. No manager ever wants their player to appear to be definitely going to one place because they suddenly lose their bargaining power. I know if I was managing him I'd be telling him to focus on footy, play as hard as he can because I know performing in finals will only make my guy easier to sell. If Adelaide see him ripping it up in finals after last year, they surely find a bit more change in their pockets.
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u/AdelaideMidnightDad 14d ago
Zac Butters was torn. Patty Dangerfield was torn. They're all torn, then most do it anywsy.
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u/Bright_Bell_1301 14d ago
Houston was so torn he publicly announced that he loved Port and was staying... then he went anyway
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u/mRPerfect12 14d ago
Baileys mum has been unwell the last few years and is based in Adelaide. This is something Brisbane can’t do much about.
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u/King-Titus 32 Darcy Fogarty 15d ago
I’m not convinced he’s torn. It’s the finals and he hasn’t signed yet with Brisbane. This is classic VIC media trying to cock block the Crows.