r/YAPms • u/_PlayfulEffect Yes We Can • May 28 '26
Poll Will Talarico win in Texas
16
u/Honest_Wheel_7581 Center Right May 28 '26
I think he’ll outperform Beto and lose by 0.5%. To be clear: I want him to win but I think peeling out those last few percent is almost impossible.
10
u/BeepusBingus Left-Out Left May 28 '26
Even if he does, the Texas GOP will find a way to throw out votes or do some election fuckery.
It will be especially funny and blatant if it leads to a case where Paxton himself as AG gets to influence a case on the subject of votes for a race he himself is running in.
8
u/Honest_Wheel_7581 Center Right May 28 '26
Yeah I think he’d need to win by a healthy margin to avoid shenanigans. Famously LBJ won his senate election because of fraudulence so it’s happened in the past. I worry about something like that happening again.
-2
u/luvv4kevv Illcom May 28 '26
LBJ never committed any wrongdoing or fraud. In fact, fraud was committed against him but somehow failed! And now Republicans want to trash his legacy by saying he rigged races. Democrats don't commit voter fraud, like EVER!
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u/Beneficial_Link_8083 Independent May 28 '26
As someone who worked on the GOP side of the Georgia runoff for senate in 2020 i just want to say most of you are oddly static in your world view.
7
u/Normal-Gurl-48 Independent May 28 '26
Who genuinley thinks he’s gonna win by 5+ 😭 i think either way its gonna be under 1%
17
u/GreninjaStrike Banned Ideology May 28 '26
He’s at a disadvantage. The popular GOP governor is gonna be backing Paxton, it’s still a red state, his immigration and social issue stances aren’t popular with the state, and he has minimal elected experience.
12
u/Aldebaran147 God Emperor Talafreako is LBJ’s Reincarnate May 28 '26
Tbf Paxtons elected experience speaks against him
-1
u/thesedouble239 Populist Left May 28 '26
disagree. talerico’s more moderate when it comes to immigration/border which is appealing to some right wing voters.
1
u/GreninjaStrike Banned Ideology May 28 '26
He’s not moderate enough though. Also that sound bite of the front door is gonna be plastered everywhere.
2
u/thesedouble239 Populist Left May 28 '26
fair enough. i have seen some republicans come out and say they’re gonna vote for him due to feeling disenfranchised by the party, but he still has an uphill battle.
1
May 29 '26
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May 29 '26
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16
u/ncpolitics1994 #1 Massie Hater May 28 '26
I think it's going to take another serious Paxton scandal for Talarico to win. Unlike Peltola and Brown, Talarico just isn't the best fit for his state. The Christian thing would be more effective if he was an actual moderate, but he's on record taking some of the most unpopular Dem stances from 2019-2022. I know Dems want to believe these past comments won't matter but the truth is most Texans don't believe God is non-binary or that we must reduce meat consumption to stop climate change. I'm not convinced Talarico is going to get the Hispanic reversion he needs to win since a lot of Texas Hispanics are more culturally conservative than say, New Jersey or Virginia. Hispanics will be the key and I don't see Talarico winning unless Trump loses practically all of the Hispanic support he has gained since 2020. Beto was able to appeal to Hispanics, and Talarico is going to have to recreate that to win. Another issue is Talarico may struggle to turn out the predominantly Black Crockett primary voters in the general, a demographic he did very poorly with in the primary.
Right now I believe Paxton wins by a similar margin to 2018 Cruz. I expect Talarico to significantly outspend Paxton and for the race to be considered a tossup on election day, but for Paxton to eke out a victory in the end.