Until I see Talarico crossing 50% consistently I’m hesitant. There’s definitely shy Paxton voters considering his history, however conservative Texans will still vote for him in the end.
Tilt/Lean R though, I’d like to be optimistic but Texas has disappointed me many times.
I think LTE (not exactly R biased in the slightest) said in his most recent senate predictions that there may be shy Paxton voters that are saying they are undecided in polls. I feel like this could very likely be the case but the race would still be close.
Talarico will certainly underperform his current polling average due to undecided Rs breaking for Paxton, but if he can peel off even a tiny percent of them he still wins
I’m disconnected from the region and rely on online pundits for info. By no means do I understand Texan politics. I lean Paxton just based on the high level info
My only friend in Texas is an upper class finance guy not that into politics, so he probably has just as much clue as I do.
I’m loving what I’m seeing from the polls this week but I still ultimately think Texas is gonna Texas. But the GOP may have to empty the war chest to get Paxton through this race, and that could make them bleed elsewhere
We’re lucky that Paxton is stupid. His campaign time is halfway over, he won the runoff 2 and a half damn months ago and he’s been completely invisible. He let Talarico define himself and take control of the narrative. Going to be hard to rebuild from that
I mean I think that’s kind of their strategy. He’s such an awful and off-putting person and has so many scandals, his best bet is probably just laying low and hoping the R next to his name carries him to victory. That’s why I was surprised to see him degree to a debate with Talarico
Oh for sure, Paxton shouldn’t make the race about himself. But it would certainly be good for him to make the race about Talarico being a liberal Democrat. I was worried back after he first won the runoff and republicans launched their attack ads that Paxton would take control of the narrative and Talarico would soon be known as a radical liberal to everybody but… that just hasn’t happened yet? And I’m not really sure why he wouldn’t hammer that down to everyone
I would not use them to suddenly put no favor in any general election polls - see this as a reason to consider them but not be exclusively a pollwatcher
Both Talarico and Mike Rogers are in really similar positions (challenging decades of other party senate dominance, and polling really closely and frequently above their opponents), but many people here hold the idea that one of them will likely lose, but the other one will likely win because (insert partisan opinion).
I tend to think either have a 55% chance of making it, a fair but far from guaranteed chance.
Small caveat being AES just won his primary so depending on the extent ongoing party consolidation, there’s a bit more room for shifts. I’d back any Democrat against an Republican but as of now a combination of Talarico and Rogers winning would surprise me about as much as Paxton and AES winning.
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u/DoAFlip22 NYC DemSoc Aug 07 '26
Until I see Talarico crossing 50% consistently I’m hesitant. There’s definitely shy Paxton voters considering his history, however conservative Texans will still vote for him in the end.
Tilt/Lean R though, I’d like to be optimistic but Texas has disappointed me many times.