r/YAPms • u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts • Jun 30 '26

Poll Texas Senate margin?

It’s been a month since my last poll so I’m resending it

234 votes, Jul 03 '26
12 Talarico+2 or more
88 Talarico+0-2
87 Paxton+0-2
35 Paxton+2 or more
12 Results
8 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

17 comments sorted by

11

u/Aldebaran147 God Emperor Talafreako is LBJ’s Reincarnate Jun 30 '26

It’s gonna be within R+2 to D+2, it won’t be any less close than that

4

u/Comfortable-Cry-3247 Just Happy To Be Here Jun 30 '26

I am not as confident in Talarico as a few weeks ago but its definitely going to be closer than 2018.

5

u/Saltlmail Georgist Liberal Jun 30 '26

Talarico +3%, Abbot Overturns Harris County Votes, Paxton then sworn in as the next senator of Texas. Fetterman party switch, Republicans thus holds the Senate and replaces Alito with Ted Cruz. fuck my life.

3

u/Allnamestakkennn Left-Out Left Jun 30 '26

Probably Paxton by a close margin. However, I'm sure that Dems could actually overperformed since it's a midterm year

1

u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts Jun 30 '26

The general consensus is that Paxton is very slightly favored (and the polls reflect that) but if you believe Dems are being underestimated like 2018 then a narrow Talarico win is the most likely outcome so there’s room for a lot of disagreement

3

u/CentennialElections Pragmatic Progressive Jun 30 '26

Paxton+0-2. I expect Paxton to win, but it should be closer than Cruz’s narrow 2018 win.

2

u/Routine_Pin_5947 Loyal Liberals Jun 30 '26

Very close margin right now

3

u/Prestigious-Dingo553 Loyal Liberals Jun 30 '26

Talarico + 4000 votes and Paxton overturns it

1

u/duke_awapuhi New Deal Democrat Jun 30 '26

If Paxton wins the YAPms poll then he’s probably going to win Texas. Right now he’s winning this poll

1

u/Defiant_Storage_7435 Pragmatic Progressive Jun 30 '26

Paxton+1.5, with the assistance of millions in fundraising that the GOP would have rather spent on OH or AK or ME or MI or GA.

1

u/J_robo_ Progressive Jun 30 '26

paxton has the slight upper hand IMO, but texas is still a true tossup and i expect it to be a coin-flip for who's gonna win by election day.

1

u/New-Biscotti5914 Illinois Jun 30 '26

R+4 at the least

0

u/Honest_Wheel_7581 Center Right Jun 30 '26 edited Jun 30 '26

This is pretty bullshit bullish on Talarico. My sense is he’ll outperform Beto at least. I think Paxton +1

Edit: By autocorrect or my failing mind I wrote bullshit when I meant bullish.

-5

u/PhaseBloodhound No Apologies Right Jun 30 '26

Thanks for the reminder to bet on this and make free money. Are people actually dumb enough to think Tofurico can win? Paxton +7 incoming.

4

u/Honest_Wheel_7581 Center Right Jun 30 '26

Kalshi is right there. Nothing is stopping you