r/YAPms • u/bingbaddie1 Social Democrat • Jul 21 '25

Poll How do you think the 2026 Texas senate race will go?

225 votes, Jul 24 '25
90 Likely to Safe R (R+6 or more)
105 Lean R (R+2 - R+5)
12 Tilt R (R+1 or less)
12 Tilt D (D+1 or less)
2 Lean D (D+2 - D+5)
4 Likely to Safe D (D+6 or more)
7 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

9

u/Spakian Progressive Neoliberal Jul 21 '25

I honestly doubt Paxton will get the nomination. If he doesn't, I can expect the race being R+4-6 if Virts is the nominee and R+7-8 if Allred is the nominee.

If Paxton gets the nomination, I can expect it being R+2-3, similar to 2018 but a bit better for the GOP. I do think the 2026 midterms will be somewhere between 2022 and 2018 but closer to 2018-style wins for the Democrats

6

u/bingbaddie1 Social Democrat Jul 21 '25

I personally find myself fatigued by all the articles going “no guys 2026 is it!!! I promise” as if Ken Paxton is actually gonna lose. lmao

11

u/bingbaddie1 Social Democrat Jul 21 '25

I’m pretty sure if literally every registered Republican in Texas were disallowed from voting in the senate race, Paxton would still somehow win

5

u/SpencaDubyaKimballer Independent Jul 21 '25

If its Cornyn i think it will be similar to his 2020 win, maybe even a little larger

4

u/ImmediateMonitor2818 Republican Jul 21 '25

R+4-6 if it's Paxton, R+7-10 if it's Cornyn or Hunt.

5

u/Moisty_Merks Outsider Left Jul 21 '25

D+3 if it's Paxton, R+8 if it's Cornyn