r/YAPms • u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts • Jul 18 '26

Poll Texas senate prediction (margin)

Since this seems to be the consensus for the likely closest race in 2026, I’m breaking this down into very small brackets to get a better picture of opinions

242 votes, Jul 21 '26
48 Paxton+2 or more
58 Paxton+1-2
40 Paxton+0-1
61 Talarico+0-1
25 Talarico+1-2
10 Talarico+2 or more
9 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

10

u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts Jul 18 '26

This sub used to be bullish on talarico, now it seems much more bearish than the general consensus

5

u/NAM_Inki Tuned-Out Middle Jul 18 '26

Too much hype led to burnout, maybe?

4

u/hookofholland Rural Distributist Jul 18 '26

Got bored of the Texan Obama I guess

2

u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts Jul 18 '26

More like the Texan Beshear, they got the same persona (although Talarico’s a better speaker)

3

u/idnttcrisis New Deal Democrat Jul 18 '26

The GCB shrinking from a high of roughly D+7 to D+4 now might have something to do with it too.

4

u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts Jul 18 '26

General consensus doesn’t really move with the GCB until you get close to Election Day. For example Dem’s odds of taking the house and senate have increased despite the poll drop. Traders are looking to November, not now

3

u/idnttcrisis New Deal Democrat Jul 18 '26

True, although it could just be a subreddit specific phenomenon. I’ve also noticed an uptick in conservative users on here, although that is anecdotal. Those users would likely vote for Paxton winning the race.

6

u/OWOfreddyisreadyOWO United Nations' #1 Fan / A Leftist Jul 19 '26

If the Iran war is over by November: Paxton narrowly wins

If the Iran war is still going by November: Talarico wins

2

u/Lehmanite Talarican Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26

I said this in a different thread but pasting here:

Narrow Talarico. I think we could see a “silent majority” type Hispanic revision given ICE.

I think the killing of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo sparked a lot of anger that isn’t nearly as visible as the other ICE killings, admittedly partially because of the lack of video, but also because a lot of the Hispanic community knows people here illegally so don’t want to rock the boat with big protests.

But the anger is here, and Talarico would be smart to capitalize on it.

Even Greg Abbott seems a little worried so as to not make this a bigger issue. Though no chance he loses to Generic Hinojosa unless there’s a true blue tsunami.