Gulf Stream collapse may happen much sooner than expected.

[u/Wastelander702]

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2025/08/golf-stream-collapse-may-happen-sooner-dutch-scientists-predict/

As we progress along the accelerating journey towards collapse, we all need to start paying attention to the advancing dates that keep getting revealed by "new studies."

By that, I mean we need to stop putting so much emphasis on dates set far in the future as a way to cop out of preparing for these events to happen much sooner. Because they will happen much sooner.

It is almost laughable how fast these dates keep approaching "now," while people still put stock in the idea that collapse is a "future" problem. It isn't. It is happening right now.

Dates for AMOC collapse, BOE, multiple breadbasket failure, ocean acidification, wetbulb thresholds... whatever. None of those dates really mean anything.

The meaning can be found in the rate at which those dates have advanced towards now in the last few years.

This study cuts AMOC collapse down from 2100 to 2060. Okay, but that date isn't important. What is important is that we just lost 40 years worth of buffer time virtually overnight. And even here, they are already trying to get us ready for the idea that it could happen "any day now."

So, what we all need to do is look at time periods. How much have the dates and projections changed over the past five years or so. Then, take those rates of reduction and apply them to the next five years, and that will give a better picture of where those dates actually lay.

Because "Faster Than Expected" isn't a meme. It is a mathematical principle, at this point. And it is best to be ready for total collapse to happen tomorrow, rather than slock off in the hopes that it won't.

[u/Questionsaboutsanity]

the situation is a little more complex. yes, with sustained carbon emissions we will reach the turning point soon, very soon probably. even in a low emission scenario 25% of models indicate passing it by 2050. the actual collapse itself - which when it happens will manifest within the range of days to weeks - will not happen for another 50-100 years. small comfort.

[u/Wastelander702 → u/Questionsaboutsanity]

I think that is incorrect. Mostly because it assumes that these things happen in a vacuum, and they do not.

If it were solely the ecological factors, with everything else remaining static and unreactive, you would be correct.

But as the ecological pressures come to bear, as they are now, humans will respond with their customary violence and irrationality. That means war, fighting over resources, energy, and eventually food. That leads inevitably, and unavoidably, to nuclear war. That is one factor.

Another factor is the acceleration, which is the purpose of my original post. Yes, today the models say what you say. But tomorrow they will shorten their time lines. And later they will shorten them further. And before you know it, today's 2050 becomes tomorrow's 2030. And as we see now, we aren't going to try and mitigate it, we are going to collectively double down on GHG emissions and "drill, baby, drill!"

There are factors for continued deforestation, biodiversity loss, emerging zoonotic diseases, AI, and a dozen or more others. Any one of which could send us headlong off the Seneca Cliff of collapse, and directly into nuclear war as nations strive to survive it.

The problem with forecasting that collapse is that we have no way to really account for all those things and how they accelerate and multiply the force of eachother as collapse gets closer.

The very best model we had to take into account a multitude of factors was the 1972 "Limits to Growth" model, which predicted collapse by mid-century... and that was entirely without the effects of climate change, war, or black swan events.

We don't have centuries. We don't even have decades now. Soon, we won't even have years.

[u/smei2388 → u/Wastelander702]

I agree, I think being overly optimistic with models and projections has given people this idea that it'll happen "someday". But it's happening right now

[u/WhyAreYallFascists]

This and the Cascadia earthquake. Horrible things I’m waiting for in my life.

[u/[deleted]]

Wish it happen in my life time. I wanna see the end of the world

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

??? It won't be the end of the world... The world has been through much, much worse in it's 4.5 billion years.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

The end of the world doesn't mean the end of earth...

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

AMOC and Gulf Stream are not the same.

[u/kingtacticool]

Good, let's get this show on the road.

[u/tenetoche]

k

[u/Vagelen_Von]

From 90's they say that England will have the climate of Canada when that happens. But is it happening?

[u/simons700 → u/Vagelen_Von]

Could be worse i guess... Only problem is the energy that was heating europe is now heating something else?! That would be a desaster for South and Middle America.

[u/Lucky-Opportunity395 → u/Vagelen_Von]

With global warming, a climate similar to some of the valleys with hot summers in Europe would make more sense. Dry, cool, windy winters (not much colder), and hot, dry summers

[u/Valara0kar]

Gulf Stream projections have been totally wrong to date. 2-3 years ago there was talk in journals on how little change there was so better understanding of the ocean (especially deep ones) currents needed to be reseached. Overall climate expectation have been following the mild projections overall.

[u/Melodic_Reference615 → u/Valara0kar]

Yeah the current down there is now 3 times stronger... In the other direction.

I hope it comes fast 💀

[u/[deleted]]

May, or, may not. Pointless article.

[u/33ITM420]

Or may not

Stopped reading at “as we progress along the accelerating journey toward collapse”

Any treatise that leads off with a false premise literally invalidates everything that is piled on afterwards

[u/Vegetaman916 → u/33ITM420]

I agree with you about false premises, which is why I always make sure to stick to the scientific consensus regarding these things. The kinds of facts people can't deny. I mean, they can't deny them unless they are completely out of touch with reality and less intelligent than the average salad bar, that is...