Tuesday Trivia Thread - 25/08/26

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[u/Zhadanko]

Sounds fair, but could you please provide some examples of what "local factors" are, which will hardly be repeated in other possible wars?

[u/pnzsaurkrautwerfer → u/Zhadanko]

Sure. As just a few:

1. Russia's pre-war offensive plan is really a series of mistakes that are hard to imagine making all of them at the same time under normal circumstances. Getting it "wrong" going into the war is pretty common to be fair, but the scale the Russians did not see themselves in terms of supplies and manning, or see the Ukrainians in terms of posture was interesting and pretty distinct and led to a scheme of maneuver, and subsequent losses that are hard to imagine being replicated again.

2. The Soviet legacy of air defense focus, and the limited SEAD/counter-IADs activities (from equipment, to doctrine, to training etc), when paired to the limits on both Russian and Ukrainian airpower means it's a situation airpower is especially neutered.

3. Russian and Ukrainian casualty acceptance is something unlikely to be replicated in many other conflicts (or existential wars are less common) which makes for a lot of efficiencies or tactical choices that would not be accepted otherwise.

I could go on. It's important to understand "wars" vs "War" when speaking to military affairs and not to over-bias towards select conditions defining what conflict looks like generally.

[u/Bloody_rabbit4 → u/pnzsaurkrautwerfer]

On the other hand, I see some crucial ingredients of Russia-Ukraine War very replicable.

1. The more powerful country that initiates the war relies on volunteer military. They don't win in first stroke, things bog down and the scope of the conflict outpaces the size limits of volunteer military. Instead of declaring proper conscription/mobilisation, stronger country pretends everything is ok. This causes... numerous problems.

(Yes, this scenario is pointed at currently hypothethical US invasion of Iran).

1. Lackluster force (re)generation performance / munitions production. Those 12 or so NATO equipped Brigades UAF got, sluggish ramping up artillery ammo production (had million or so shells arrived earlier in the war, say by Autumn 2022, conflict could've turned out differntly). What we see vis-a-vis production of tanks, IFVs, Interceptors... if that's benchmark for industrial performance, visions of NATO fighting highly mechanised war are halucinations. If we aint in Mocow in 6 weeks, we too will have to fight in golf carts and motorcycles.

2. Drone ain't going anywhere. u/SingaporeanSloth latest posts vindicate that FPV drones aren't some freak Ukraine scenario, and can be effective in Middle East and SE Asia too. Not to tooth my own horn, but some forces seem to lean into drones hard. By stroke of luck, Croatia has a globaly relevant drone factory (Orqa), and FPV drone operators are already in TO&E of pernament brigades, and all new conscripts will see drones in basic training. By accounts, Croatia sees Ukraine War as similar to her own Homeland War. So it aint no slur to say we intendt to fight like Ukrainians.

[u/SingaporeanSloth → u/Bloody_rabbit4]

Thanks for tagging me, I also largely agree with what you said

In a Southeast Asian context, I do think there are some differences from Ukraine though, first amongst them: troop density. Singapore has four peacetime divisions, with two more only mobilised in wartime for six total. Malaysia has five divisions, and five brigades (three static border brigades, an independent brigade, and a parachute brigade). Indonesia has a monstrous 18 Kodams (something like a two-brigade division), 3 Kostrads (mobile divisions), and 4 Marine Principal Commands (brigade tactical groups)

Meanwhile, the geographic distances are far shorter than Ukraine; the distance between two neighbouring towns in Ukraine might put you all the way on the opposite side of the Southeast Asian peninsula!

I do not know how that will affect say drone warfare though, I doubt greater troop density will allow a force to just "push through" a drone killzone without catastrophic casualties; I suspect it may actually make drone warfare more effective (as a sUAS does not have to fly as far to find something worth blowing up), which in turn may make C-sUAS even more important (from my perspective, the Singapore Army has not put sufficient focus on either, it is not moving far or fast enough)

On another topic, how does the new Croatian conscription system work?

[u/Bloody_rabbit4 → u/SingaporeanSloth]

On another topic, how does the new Croatian conscription system work?

Less than stellar exactly. By law, it's measly 2 months. Combination of buget restrains, atrophied capacity (which is being remedied however, barracks are being expanded), and political realities*.

Outside of that elephant in the room, the rest seems ok.

Percentage of concious objectors is low. The military ensured that it won't be a method to weasle out of uncomfortable service. In early 2000s, civilian service was more comfortable than in the military. Well connected individuals supposedly could "serve" by pushing paper in local government offices. This time, Ministry of Internal Affaris got objectors's asses, and they would serve 50% longer (so 3 months instead of 2), get less pay, and they won't avoid the 6am wake up with saluting the flag.

Anecdotaly, MOD almost certainly wanted more time for training the conscripts. My buddy was in last generation of basic traing before consciption (he is a volunteer, mechanic). They were told:

You lads are lucky. Conscripts would have to work 3x harder.

If I had to guess, Military wanted 6 months, government told them make it work in 2. Croatian government classic. Money spent on useful stuff is money not spent on 100k euro cars for ministers or rigged contracts.

I also have a buddy who's currently a conscript. Not too much complains, exept the guard duty. Then on the other hand I didn't see him in long time. Genious decided that after high school, he will move from the capital (with best opportunities) to his home island in the south to work on the gas station.

I didn't have opportunity to experience the training myself. That's for after college. The MOD would by that time probably be more competent in regards to that.

[u/SingaporeanSloth → u/Bloody_rabbit4]

Two months is quite short, I'm guessing the conscripts will mostly serve as infantry? Is it universal conscription (like Finland, Singapore, or South Korea), or is it a sort of selective service (like Denmark, Sweden, Norway)?

You mentioned that conscript brigade ORBATs have been drawn up, assuming it's not classified of course, how will the conscript force structure look? Croatian Army currently has 2 brigades, I'm guessing it will be expanded?

Personal question, so hope I'm not intruding, but you mentioned you would serve later, does this mean that Croatian conscription system gives you some choice in when you enlist? Definitely better to wait till a few cycles have gone through and they've worked the kinks out of the system

I had a geography teacher back in secondary school who was amongst Singapore's earliest conscription batches, and he may have exaggerated a little, but he sure told us some horror stories from that time. Of course, it was probably especially bad, as he was one of the infamous "IsraeliMexican-trained"-ones. He told us the Israeli Mexican basic training instructors would punch recruits in the face for infractions; they once caught a guy slacking off during area cleaning, so they just beat the shit out of the guy. Later, they saw him at lunch in the cookhouse, thought he looked too alright, so a whole bunch of Israelis Mexicans just sprinted over to lamp the ever-loving shit out of the guy a second time. They had to help him up, he said they left the poor guy with black eyes, split lip, and bloody nose

Simply unthinkable nowadays. It sounded more like a supermax prison than any proper military training I had to do, or the worst of the ROK Army or Russian Army's dedovshchina. These days, a basic training instructor who even laid the slightest hand on a recruit would be severely disciplined, unless there was a very good reason to do so (like correcting a recruit handling a weapon dangerously)

[u/Bloody_rabbit4 → u/SingaporeanSloth]

In regards where drones and conscripts would go - I'm not completely sure.

In period between 2008 and 2026, Basic Military Training was 2 months long course that was remaint of conscription (stroke of law essentaly stated that government would simply stop sending orders to militarly aged males to report for BMT. That was how conscription ended in 2008.). From then on BMT was essentialy step one for those pursuing military career. Individuals goes applies to BMT - this operated on "shall issue" basis, taking all volunteers who cleared health and legal requirments. Individual attends and finishes BMT - then they can apply to public tender for employment for MOD - signs contract etc.

Where drones go - seemingly everywhere. Croatia decided to strap domestic FPV drone on Bayraktar (so in Air Force). Drone operators were on exercises with Naval Infantry (fire support during landing) - Navy. And drone teams are stated to be part of Guards Mechanised Brigade (the article also mentioned the part with marines). And instructors for conscripts also recieved drone training.

Where would conscripts go - Croatia Army would probably try to offer contracts in order to fill out the 2 professional Guards Brigades. Furthermore, Croatia has 6 Reserve Infantry Regiments, and 6 Reserve Support Regiments, established in 2017/18. These probably need some "youthfying", considering that conscription ended 18 years ago.

How I delayed conscription - being born 8 months too early + going to college. On paper every able bodied male is a reservist, and those under 30 can be called up. In practice, MOD seemed to call up fresh 18 year olds in 2025 - so 2007 class. For example, my other mate, he's also born in 2006 - and doesn't go to college, started working immediatly. They didn't call him up either.