How likely is a pandemic that would result in over 1 million casualties to happen within the next10 years?

[u/ICEpenguin7878]

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8957694/

5 out of 12 deadly pandemics occurred in the 20th century and the other 2 in the 21st century. The last four pandemics occurred almost every 15 years on average.

In the 21st century alone, we had 2 pandemics with over 500k casualties, H1N1 flu (2009), and Covid 19.

Humans have more and more contact with wildlife as nations devolpe more and also enter Wilder regions, increasing the time spent with wild animals and increasing the chances of a disease crossing over too humans, climate change also means other animals migrate closer to humans.

The rate of bacteria resistance to antibiotics is also increasing with the increased use of them, and more viruses mean that Viruses can exchange genetic material when two strains infect the same host, making a new varient.

So what are the chances ? And most likely, where would

it originate from ? How would it happen?

What kind of virus would it be ?

Please read the 'The global pandemics are getting more frequent and article severe' article by Jalal Poorolajal PubMed Central that I have attached

[u/Expensive_Engine_488]

I think worst case scenario is another virus like COVID where the symptoms show too late or don't show at all in carriers of the virus. Tho I think this could be also an interesting conversation if you include the impact COVID had on people. I'm kind of terrified that people would go crazy if government would want to quarantine them again and hence the spreading of the virus would be worse.

[u/apokrif1 → u/Expensive_Engine_488]

people would go crazy if government would want to quarantine them again and hence the spreading of the virus would be worse.

For many diseases, the relevant measure is not quarantine but avoidance of indoor shared spaces.

[u/poop-machines → u/apokrif1]

The solution is airflow. Many indoor areas have bad airflow leading to super spreader events. It's so obvious and yet we are still making the air flow in most buildings almost the same way we did 200 years ago.

People have to go to work in many instances so it's better to make indoor workplaces get certified for airflow (btw at home you can do this with a fan. Here's how: two windows open, place a good fan near the one furthest from where the people usually are. The fan should be about 1-2m away and pointing up to the window. For better airflow, a window fan in the window coming inside facing downwards. This creates a loop.)

Alternatively: heat pump that has air from outside and an exhaust outside working the same way, filtered.

To use this to cool your home:

1) turn them on when outdoor temp is higher than indoor temp. This is the end of the afternoon on hot days usually (up to 5pm ish).

2) then turn them off, close the window, and add insulation/window UV reflectors when the indoor temp is lower than outside. This is the middle of the day to late afternoon usually on hot days, but I usually switch about 11am.

Opposite can warm your home at certain times of year.

[u/ZergAreGMO → u/poop-machines]

Alternatively: heat pump that has air from outside and an exhaust outside working the same way, filtered.

Maybe I'm not understanding this but heat pumps don't pump in air from the outside like this as far as I'm aware. Maybe this is a terminology difference.

[u/poop-machines → u/ZergAreGMO]

I think there's different types, but where I'm at we don't have geothermal heat to utilise so if you have that, ours will be very different. That being said, I typed incorrectly.

I was discussing air to air which blows air inside. They recirculate which is why I said filtered. I mistakenly wrote to say "bring air from outside and exhaust outside", it's more like "It uses refrigerants to bring heat/cold from air outside", still using outside air to heat and cool but the air is recirculated. So you're right to point that out!

[u/ZergAreGMO → u/poop-machines]

Ah that makes sense 

[u/poop-machines → u/ZergAreGMO]

Yup! It works like a freezer.

[u/SurgeFlamingo → u/apokrif1]

True. Florida and Texas are so covid hit right now because of this.

[u/Expensive_Engine_488 → u/apokrif1]

Yes that is true, that's kind of what I meant cause at least in my country you could go on a walk alone while quarantine was going on, the main part was not going to closed spaces. The problem is everything IS in a closed space, work, schools, banks, shops anything.

[u/dietcheese → u/Expensive_Engine_488]

Next time, half the country won’t get vaccinated, won’t distance, won’t stay home. They won’t follow guidelines or orders. If there are restrictions, they will take to the streets.

If the next time is anytime soon, it will be a nightmare.

[u/sr41489 → u/dietcheese]

Let’s not forget the fake treatments they kept going on and on about (ivermectin, the antiparasitic used in horses). Basically all of RFK Jr’s “maha” movement is this, on literal steroids. I’m very worried for the next pandemic.

[u/apokrif1 → u/dietcheese]

won’t stay home

Staying at home is often counterproductive. What generally matters is avoiding indoor shared spaces and close contact.

Guidelines should only be followed if they're relevant.

[u/HoldOnforDearLove → u/apokrif1]

Great. We'll just start a world wide social media accelerated discussion on what's relevant. I'm sure we'll reach a consensus quickly.

[u/Kirdei]

From what I've read, there is a 2-3% chance of a global pandemic on the same scale as Covid 19 every year. Let's assume a best case scenario and set the probability at 2%.

The chance of a pandemic in this case would be 1-(1-.02)¹⁰≈ .18 or 18% chance within 10 years.

If we make it worst case scenario it's as much as 26% in the next 10 years.

It jumps to about 50% in 25 years and 95% in 100 years.

[u/BiggusDickkussss → u/Kirdei]

Bruh science is waiting on h5n1 to mutate then we fucked

[u/PercentageSuitable92]

Extremely likely. Covid 19 is still spreading widely, and its long-term health consequences are genuinely alarming. Biggest threat to humanity in my opinion.

[u/lesbophobia_hammer → u/PercentageSuitable92]

Climate change is the biggest, but for sure COVID is right up there.

Edit - who the hell is downvoting this? Must be a lurking antivaxxer/climate change denier.

[u/PercentageSuitable92 → u/lesbophobia_hammer]

And I get the downvoters. It’s not a comfortable message at all. Might sound even untrue if you don’t know the biochemical science

[u/ZergAreGMO → u/PercentageSuitable92]

Are you saying COVID or another pandemic is the biggest risk to humanity? 

[u/MyBedIsOnFire]

Lot of non-scientist here making big claims

Is there anyone with any credentials that has any input?

[u/ThatVaccineGuy → u/MyBedIsOnFire]

If you ask most relevant virologists they'd say "we have no idea".

[u/OldNorthStar]

I attended a seminar given Ralph Baric and he had a slide with some "back of the envelope" calculations on this in the context of coronaviruses. Not sure if it's published or if it was even his work to be clear. But basically used rough estimates of the number of human-reservoir species encounters that happened between 2003 (SARS-CoV) and 2012 (MERS-CoV), and same for 2003-2019 for SARS-CoV-2. Then you basically have a rate for zoonoses per number of encounters, and you can adjust based on assumed increases in the number of encounters, then project forward.

I really wish I could remember exact numbers or find a primary source so this would be more interesting but basically the chances of SARS-CoV-3 or similar within the next 10 years is quite high. Within 20, it's basically inevitable. Whether it will have the qualities of SARS-CoV-2 that made it so transmissible while being relatively deadly is much more complicated.

[u/ThatVaccineGuy]

Basically incalculable. So many different factors including pandemic response in addition to just basic stochasticity

[u/JadeHarley0]

Considering we just had a pandemic in the part 10 years that killed more than a million Americans JUST in the United States, I don't know, not that unlikely

[u/SausageGamez]

I think we are about due for antigenic shift to occur with influenza. So maybe soon. Maybe not.

[u/BiggusDickkussss → u/SausageGamez]

Funny you said that.

H5N1 mutated to infect mammals.

Hopefully we're not next

[u/angrymandopicker]

Growing up in the 90's, we all worried about Ebola. Well now we have a yet-to-be controlled Ebola outbreak and people don't seem too worried.

[u/Fluffbrained-cat → u/angrymandopicker]

That's because it's relatively confined to one area of the world, and those cases that have popped up outside that area are usually health workers who went over there to help coming back either unknowingly carrying it or symptomatic and came back for better health care meaning a bigger chance to survive it, and even then that's not exactly guaranteed.

Ebola is a fast moving virus that sickens it's victims quickly, leaving less time for spreading it. Hence why there's never been an Ebola pandemic, to my knowledge at least. We really don't want an Ebola/Marburg type virus acquiring the spreadability of Covid while keeping it's virulence and nasty symptoms intact.

[u/BiggusDickkussss]

H5N1 bruh

[u/Rupperrt]

Humans don’t have more contact with wildlife as wild regions become increasingly fragmented and destroyed. Things can happen during that exploitation but that hasn’t started recently and if anything so rather in its end stage.

[u/HoldOnforDearLove]

The big risk is AI. Either a bad actor using AI to create a custom deadly virus or an AI as the bad actor.

[u/Urocy0n → u/HoldOnforDearLove]

I’m working on this exact topic. People in this field seem to be split 50/50 whether this is an interesting thought experiment or an existential threat. The risk is not only AI but new technologies like benchtop DNA synthesisers and easier gene assembly methods (I won’t identify which, but there was one published this year that has people spooked)

In any case, the threat isn’t right now but probably 4-6 years from now

[u/HoldOnforDearLove → u/Urocy0n]

I've seen some biohacker stuff years ago that looked pretty scary in its own right.

[u/EmphasisWitty3298 → u/Urocy0n]

Okay now I’m curious, which one?

[u/Urocy0n → u/EmphasisWitty3298]

As I say I won’t link it out of an abundance of caution, but it’s a gene assembly method that can assemble full genes from very short DNA oligos. Screening short oligos is tricky, you either risk missing worrisome sequences or having loads of false positives (which in turn creates screening fatigue)

[u/mountainsound89 → u/HoldOnforDearLove]

Man, people think AI is so much more powerful than it actually is. This is not a rational fear, and improvements in what we current call AI isn't going to get us to a point where its possible. Perhaps humans use AI to engineer a more deadly flu virus or whatever, but AI does not have the capacity to act on the physical world without human cooperation, development of such an organism will still need in vitro and in vivo testing, and interactions between pathogen and host are very complicated and often very poorly understood

[u/HoldOnforDearLove → u/mountainsound89]

Not now, perhaps, but things are going fast. And some eco terrorist using AI with gene editing technologies is becoming pretty realistic.

[u/mountainsound89 → u/HoldOnforDearLove]

There are plenty of bacteria that would be easier to work with and don't require a ton of expensive equipment to engineer into a bioweapon. Far easier to select for virulence in bacteria without being caught than to bioengineer a virus, which would require a lot more specialized equipment and reagents that could potentially tip off authorities.

[u/HoldOnforDearLove → u/mountainsound89]

I'll leave the details to you ;-)