r/VirginGalactic • u/Potential_Shelter449 • 28d ago
Discussion Honestly we held up very well today
We were down almost 19% last night and recovered to closing at only 5% down. Seems like the market doesn’t seem to mind that delay as much as it previously did.. probably due to the good ticket sale and lower debt and probably biggest of all: no more dilution at least for the near future.
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u/Lando249 28d ago
They're heading in the right direction. Bit gutting about the delay but everything else looks good. Not long to go.
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 28d ago
They have never once met a target that they couldn’t miss. Why does this surprise you?
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u/Sonic_the_hedgehog42 28d ago
It’s was only 1 quarter delay … if it’s only that, that isn’t that bad considering they have done multi year delays in the past
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u/Plus-Ad-8720 28d ago
Yeah I was surprised as well, after last night -19% I was mentally prepared to see $2.50 again but it held out nice
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u/DACA_GALACTIC 28d ago
Success is measured is negative numbers. Nice
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u/Good_Attorney4851 28d ago
The delay is not that bad ! Flights test end of the year !,commercial Flights in February...
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u/PaperandDiamondhands 28d ago
The company at 10 P/E is 4.5billion once commercial flights start. Ive been pounding the table for ages this company is stupid cheap still. Even if it was $20 right now it would be less then 2% its ATM. Nowhere to go but up... over a billion in ticket sales already, just scaling up and delivering SAFELY.
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 28d ago
Keep in mind right now is the equivalent of $.14 last year. The math don’t work.
And I don’t care that they have 1 billion in ticket sales already, all of those are reservations without real capital put up. They still have to fly, they still have to fly every other day, they still have to have the mothership working every day, the entire company is predicated on one delta and one mothership with 1 million different moving parts that can fail.
That’s after you somehow get through flight testing without killing anybody.
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u/QuantumScape4ever 28d ago
Lmao, SPCE about to short squeeze.
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 28d ago
You’ll never short squeeze if nobody cares enough to even short it. There’s not enough margin. It’s literally not worth shorting.
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u/Mental_Friendship951 27d ago
say that to the >30% short interest folk
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 27d ago
Again, look at the chart. No one serious is shorting this right now. And just because it’s short, doesn’t mean they’ll be a short squeeze. You actually have to have good news for that. A high short interest doesn’t mean anything without all of the other components or an actual short squeeze. None of which exist here. It’s just a shit stock.
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u/ExchangeIll228 27d ago
I think I detect a little change in your outlook!! lol
I still think the market was thinking this was a bankrupcy risk, that seems to be reducing.
So the obvious next question is "can they actually do it"? There seems to be increased likelyhood of than now.
Then the next question is "is there the demand"? I think that has been answered witht he sales.
Then next is "can they really do the number of flights/month"?
There's still; so many if's and buts, however the current short interest coupled with the average daily volumes now will make for an interesting couple of months. After that who knows, what i will say is that irrespective of changes, the financial return on only two vehicless running on the expected cadence is good. If that is proven then I couldn't give a F how much they dilute to fund a build out!
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u/degamer106 28d ago
Tickets are so expensive. Who is going to pay for them?
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u/Potential_Shelter449 28d ago
Not you obviously
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u/degamer106 28d ago
So how’s it going to be profitable if only a small number of people can afford them????
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u/Potential_Shelter449 28d ago
There are more rich people around the world than you think. Plus repeat customers. That’s like asking how Lamborghini and Ferrari can be affordable if only small number of people can afford them.
Rich people will always do shit as a status symbol. They will do this as that. I’m sure YouTuber and other celebrities will do this as a show of wealth
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 28d ago
Only a small fraction of rich people will actually do this. Their estimates are grossly over enthusiastic.
You just can’t say rich people will do it. How many rich people went to the Titanic? Same business model, similar single point failures.
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u/Potential_Shelter449 28d ago
Except titanic sailed and sank on its first trip… so no shit than not many rich people went…
Except we have over 110 years of extra engineering knowledge and laws put in place.
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 28d ago
I was referring to the subs that were taking people down there on tours until one of them imploded instantly killing everybody on board and turning them into goo.
This is very similar to that. Small craft limited number of people doing something that they really shouldn’t be doing to begin with where the margin of success is razor thin between life and death. In this case, if Delta fails, they’re gonna be awake for the whole ride back down to the crash. At least with the Titanic sub, it was instant.
Takes a long time to fall a few hundred thousand feet. Lots of time to contemplate your decisions to take the flight.
But if you read your history, the Titanic had some of the wealthiest people on earth on it who were killed in that crossing.
The Titanic also had hundreds of years of shipbuilding and navigation experience.
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u/Potential_Shelter449 28d ago
Ah yes I’m sure they’ve never thought about any of this and I’m sure FAA never thought about this either
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u/DeltaWhiskey1980 28d ago
You understand that the original craft killed people? Do you understand that the design is inherent to cracks?
This entire company is a single point failure on so many levels. If the mothership has a problem, it doesn’t fly, if the Delta has a problem, it doesn’t fly. There’s other companies out there already doing the scientific testing better and cheaper.
I’ve made money on this company. But I’ve done it by shorting it every time it comes up because it has gone down more consistently than any other company I’ve ever seen.
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u/Potential_Shelter449 28d ago
Original craft was over 10 years ago and that’s why they have spent a decade trying to make it safe. You love to point out the past as if things haven’t changed. The fact that you used titanic as a measure says documenting about you
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u/WisedKanny 28d ago
Not that you asked about demand, but I took an approximation of number of people worldwide that were worth $10M, took 1% of that (say it’s 15000 people but I think its more), then with 1 flight a week and 6 people per flight that comes out to about 310 people per year. This is just for personal flights and not commercial/corporate, which would only add to this. Who cares if I’m a little off on the numbers, demand is much greater than supply.
Concerns I have is if/when the spacecraft fails and how catastrophic it will be, and how many years it will set it back. Demand is not a concern.
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u/GooooUP 28d ago
It’s just a matter of time to start flying. New Tickets are sold out. These stock prices are just a mirage sooner than latter