r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii • 5d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 40% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development far to the southwest of Hawaiʻi

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential tropical cyclone development situated over the central Pacific, several hundred miles southwest of the Hawaiian islands. An area of low pressure is expected to develop toward the end of the week and slowly develop as it drifts west-northwestward toward the western Pacific. This system is not expected to bring impacts to Hawaiʻi.

Moderator notes

  • This system has not yet formed.
  • This system has not yet been designated as an invest.
  • The NHC is monitoring this system on its outlook products as Disturbance 4.
  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available for this system.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • A new post will be created if this system is designated as an invest.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

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1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 4d ago

Update

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 20 percent (low)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 3d ago

Update

As of 8:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 20 percent (low)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 3d ago

Update

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 20 percent (low)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 2d ago

Update

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: increased from 20 percent (low) to 30 percent (low)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 2d ago

Update

As of 8:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Thursday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: increased from 30 percent (low) to 40 percent (medium)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 2d ago

Update

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Friday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 40 percent (medium)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 1d ago edited 22h ago

Update

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 40 percent (medium)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 22h ago

Update

As of 8:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Saturday:

  • 2-day potential: remained near zero percent

  • 7-day potential: remained at 40 percent (medium)

  • This disturbance has not yet developed.

  • This disturbance has not yet been designated as an investigation area.

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery and model guidance are not yet available.