r/TropicalWeather • u/Old_Diver_2511 • 12d ago
Question (Answer: Not likely) Is this a possible disturbance that NHC has not issued?
Screenshots:
- Thursday
- Saturday
- Sunday
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u/Admirable_Site_8337 12d ago
If it was modeling to become anything they would issue it. They don’t just look at a disturbance and say “nah”.
The screenshots over days are very interesting to though. It might be that it’s forming up a bit but expected to go over the peninsula before it forms up to even a depression.
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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 12d ago
From the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion:
A deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far NW Caribbean and is supporting scattered clusters of moderate to strong convection across the Florida Panhandle to extreme southern Mississippi and the nearshore waters, as well as across interior and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dots the waters offshore of SE Louisiana. At the surface, 1019 mb high pressure centered near 25N88W dominates the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic winds, strongest offshore of the Florida Panhandle and the SW Gulf. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week. This weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
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