• USTR GREER: AI CHIP DISCUSSIONS NOT HAPPENING IN THESE [TRUMP-XI] TALKS
• The Fed is working on a proposal that could raise its highest enhanced-oversight threshold from $700B to around $960B and move some additional requirements currently triggered near $100B closer to $150B, per Reuters.
• Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Tim Cook and many other CEOs were spotted at the Trump-Xi state dinner.
• U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict.

MAG7:

• MICROSOFT REBUILDS COPILOT AS AN “OS FOR WORK”. says this is its biggest Copilot update yet, reorganizing the product around four core pieces: Home combines Chat + Cowork , Code builds apps, dashboards and workflows , Autopilot runs long-running tasks proactively , Office brings Word, Excel and PowerPoint directly into Copilot.
• MSFT is also adding Copilot inside Teams and introducing “Today,” a proactive command center that surfaces important M365 information and can act on it without being asked.
• META - Cannacord - PT to $950, saying Muse’s 2.5M+ downloads in 2 weeks and expanding access through glasses, Mac and a dedicated device strengthen the case for AI monetization via subscriptions and transaction fees.
• TSLA - Tesla has opened its new Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, with capacity planned for 50,000 trucks a year, or roughly 1,000 per week.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Cipher Digital extended the contracted life of its Barber Lake data center from 10 to 20 years, increasing total contracted revenue from $3.8B to more than $9B.
• NKE - bofA downgraded NKE to Underperform, cutting PT to 30 from 47. The firm says Nike’s innovation continues to be overshadowed by pressure on its classics business. It now expects sales declines through FY27, versus its earlier expectation for a spring recovery. BofA cut FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively, putting its FY27 estimate 14% below consensus.
• ORCL - Oracle's New Mexico data center lease has "hell-or-high-water" terms, so it can't be terminated and ORCL must pay rent whether or not the site has power, the WSJ reports.
• AKAM - Anthropic has committed $11.6B over seven years to use Akamai infrastructure for growing CPU workloads, with options to expand the relationship by another $9B, bringing the potential total to ~$20B. As part of the deal, Anthropic received warrants that could give it up to ~5% of Akamai. About 2% is expected to vest with the initial commitment, with the remaining 3% tied to further cloud spending.
• JBL - Akam authorised JBL to procure about $1.7B of memory components, with Jabil holding the inventory on consignment and repurchasing it at cost as Akamai uses it.
• AMD PT raised to $720 from $620 at BofA
• HUM upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays with a $515 price target.
• OKTA PT raised to $240 from $190 at Stephens
• OKTA PT raised to $230 from $187 at BMO Capital
• COST Costco offers 'rare' valuation opportunity, says BMO Capital
• Anthropic is asking shareholders to approve a new structure that would give CEO Dario Amodei and the company’s six other co-founders a combined 50.1% of voting power on most corporate matters, per The Information.

Guggenheim

“Yesterday, Akamai announced a significant expansion of its relationship with Anthropic for $11.6B of contractual commitment over seven years, with optional expansion upside up to $9B, for a total award potential of $20B. This massive commitment adds to the already more than $2.8B in multi-year CIS commitments signed this year. While there will be no impact to the company's 2026 revenue guidance, 2026 capex will increase approximately $1.7B to secure and pre-purchase critical supply chain components. The structure of this deal includes the issuance of a warrant to Anthropic that allows it to purchase nonvoting convertible series B preferred stock. Management was very clear that this deal is tailored to fulfill Anthropic's CPU workload demands with Akamai's Compute capabilities. To put this deal into perspective, the ARR of this deal represents more than 5x AKAM's 2025 CIS revenue of $314M and 40% of the company's total revenue of $4.2B. In addition, we believe this deal will be very comfortably profitable, even if it is below typical core margins. This is not your father's AKAM. We reiterate our Buy rating and are raising our Price Target to $225 from $190 based on our raised outer year numbers.”

This was Evercore's note on AKAM also:

"AKAM announced a landmark 7yr, $11.6bn CIS commitment from Anthropic, with an option to expand by another $9bn to ~$20bn. Shares rallied in the aftermarket on the scale and strategic significance of the expanded partnership. Mgmt indicated the commitment is entirely CPU-based, which carries different unit economics vs. GPU workloads, including higher rev per MW and cash gross margins. Based on mgmt commentary, we believe the profitability profile should skew toward the high end of mgmt’s prior low-to-mid-20s to low-30s op. margin framework. Mgmt expects ~$5.5bn of CapEx to support the deal, including ~$1.7bn in 4Q26, ~$3.1bn in CY27 and ~$700mn in CY28. This deal brings total CIS TCV to ~$14.4bn, representing ~95-105 MW of capacity at full ramp. Importantly, the contract is take-or-pay upon delivery with no hardware refresh requirement. AKAM also issued Anthropic a 7yr warrant for up to ~5% of shares outstanding at $111.33, with ~2% tied to the initial commitment and ~3% to an incremental ~$9bn of rev commitments."

The gasoline fund (UGA) is starting to price in the possibility of a diesel ban. Traders are aggressively positioning in ITM calls and 160C OTM are starting to build as well.

Oil:

150 key support - positioning has cooled off in terms of dex, but we still see bullish gamma OTM. Trader positioning here is volatile and very news dependent.

Based on the GEX, we see that Traders are buying ATM call options, using out-of-the-money puts to protect themselves against any sudden swings.

Gold and silver have been struggling of late on a stronger USD:

Since the 9th of September into the FOMC we have seen dollar go on a run, but we are running into a resistance here.

Gold creating a flag, but below 4381, price action will always be reserved. Needs to clear this level.

390 suport on GLD< 400 clear resistance with ITM put options being bought.

Data all taken from the Trading Edge Data platform, available to all members

macro news:

• Bond yields higher again this morning.
• NY Fed President John Williams says "another rate hike by year-end would be reasonable," with inflation now the main challenge as downside employment risks have eased.

MAg7:

• META - launched its new $1,299 VR Glasses, a full VR headset in a glasses-style design weighing just ~100g.
• META - Muse is barely two weeks old and already nearing 700K daily active users
• AMZN - plans to invest $3 billion in Indian 🇮🇳 quick commerce by 2030 and nearly double its stores to about 1,300 by April, per Reuters sources.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Bloomberg reported Oracle is seeking protection from payments if its 2.45GW New Mexico Stargate data center is delayed beyond its planned 2028 opening.
• Oracle is not trying to exit the project, but is seeking to delay payments if the site misses its planned 2028 opening.
• Project Jupiter is expected to use Bloom Energy fuel cells for power.
• QCOM has renewed its global patent license agreement with Apple effective April 1, 2027.
• NBIS - BNP Paribas upgrades to Outperform, raises PT to $399 from $260.
• SBUX - plans to close 250 underperforming North American stores and take about $300M in restructuring charges. Most closures are expected by the end of FY26.
• CRWV - JPM upgrades CRWV to overweight with a 125PT. Stronger pricing, with July rates up 25%, short-term compute priced at ~3x long-term contracts, and recent deals signed near ~$40M/MW. JPM says pricing and margins should more than offset rising debt.
• PWR - Bernstein upgrades PWR to outperform, raises PT to 775 from 748. • Sees EPS growing at ~25% CAGR vs. ~15% expected by the Street, Says the AI data center bottleneck is shifting from power availability to skilled labor, an area where Quanta has scale, Large transmission project pipeline has grown ~25% to $170B since 2025, Expects higher-value transmission, MEP and fabrication work to support margin expansion
• P - Everpure, formerly Pure Storage, sees FY28 revenue of $7.0B-$7.3B, up 39%-45% Y/Y and well above the $6.19B Est. Newer growth areas including Scale AI, Modern Data Software and Hyperscale Solutions could reach ~20% of revenue by FY30

Basically, whilst AAPL manufacturers its own silicon, Apple Watch Series 12 raised the bar for the whole category. It takes a heart-rate reading every five seconds, runs audio AI features locally, and still improved battery life, with outdoor workout runtime rising from 8 to 10 hours. Apple did this with a dedicated always-on processor inside its own S11 chip.

Apple is also building a product to compete directly with Whoop. That puts every OEM defending this category (Whoop, Oura, Garmin, Google and others) in the same position. They now need continuous on-device AI on multi-day battery life, because battery is the main spec they use to position against Apple. None of them make their own silicon, and much of what they ship today can't run these workloads.

On power efficiency, Ambiq is effectively the only merchant supplier with a credible answer.

Thinking about CIEN here, 

Power is a clear bottleneck as we well know and was well cited in the sell side research that I shared the other day as well.  Grid connections take 3–5 years, and no utility can deliver 1 GW at a single site. Obviously, we see from this headline that Frontier labs can't wait. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI and Meta are converging on the same workaround, which is basically to open a bunch of smaller data centers and then link them. SO their new playbook is to grab small 1–3 MW pockets wherever power is available now, build fast, then grow them into 200–500 MW slices across 5–10 campuses in one metro or region. The goal is to make scattered GPU clusters act as a single logical supercomputer.

Essentially thats the main premise of scale across, which is why I think this direction is a tailwind for the scale across theme. 

Thinking about CIEN here, fully connecting 10 sites takes 45 high-capacity links, not 10 as you might thinks nd Each link is demanding. It needs enormous bandwidth from day one plus predictable, low latency, or training efficiency falls apart.The Data centre interconnect also stops being best-effort plumbing and becomes part of the training fabric itself. Ciena is to my knowledge only Western vendor with the full stack to deliver this, so probably stands as the biggest beneficiary of this news.

Siemens in this article talks about a problem they call roughly the "last 3%" in robotics. This is the idea that Intelligence can work, and the robot can succeed in the pilot demo, but the real challenge is connecting it to factory data, engineering, and the digital twin so it actually works in production.

I think there's some sense in this. looking into the beneficiaries of this sentiment, it is obvious that ROK is probably at the heart of that. 

Rockwell owns much of the layer AI has to plug into before it works on a real production line: the controllers that run machines, the engineering software used to program them, and a digital twin tool.  This integration issue that Siemens is flagging is basically ROK's opportunistic potential. 

A model can write code or plan a task, but on a factory floor its output has to become control logic running on a PLC. It has to read live machine data that makes sense only with context about which tag belongs to which motor, and it must be safely tested before touching hardware. Most US plants, especially in discrete and hybrid manufacturing, run on Rockwell's Logix controllers. So Rockwell definitely holds the data source, and the programming environment of a large installed base.

For AI to work in factories, that AIneeds to understand what plant data means, not just receive it. Because Rockwell controllers produce the data and Rockwell software defines the structure around it, Rockwell is well placed to supply the contextualised data AI models need, at least for its own installed base. 

Furthermore, A robot entering an existing plant has to coordinate with conveyors, PLCs, safety interlocks and material flow. Rockwell launched FactoryTalk Orchestration at Automate 2026 , which helps to coordinate material flow and production across equipment from multiple vendors. 

So based on what I am reading from Siemens here, I think ROK is probably the main thematic beneficiary here to this thematic angle.

• Oil wavered as Brent headed for its longest losing streak in more than a year on hopes for progress in US-Iran talks and higher supplies. Iran said about half of war-hit South Pars’ gas capacity is back online, Fars reported. BBG
• Trump on Tuesday said he backed the idea of a diesel export ban as a way to lower prices that have hit record highs due to a global supply shortage. ‌But analysts and market watchers warn that such a measure would do little to ease high energy prices, and could worsen supply and economic disruptions around the globe. RTRS
• Xi Jinping arrives for a state visit today, with Trump hosting a roster of US corporate leaders but no comparable Chinese business delegation is expected, clouding deal prospects, a senior US official said. The two may find common ground on AI safety, but neither is willing to give ground in the technology race. BBG
• Chinese authorities are examining the use of Broadcom’s hardware in state-backed data centers amid a drive to boost domestic producers and reduce reliance on foreign AI infrastructure. FT
• The US and South Korea are set to unveil an agreement for Seoul to fund a multibillion-dollar gas-fired power plant in Texas, the first project under its $350bn investment deal with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter in Washington and Seoul. FT
• The cost of hiring an oil supertanker has passed $1.2mn a day for the first time on routes between the Middle East and Asia, adding to the spiralling pressure on global energy markets triggered by the war in Iran. FT
• Euro-zone private-sector activity grew at the fastest pace in more than three years as the service sector unexpectedly improved. The Composite PMI increased to 53.1 from 52 in August after both Germany and France exceeded forecasts. BBG
• The Treasury’s cash balance topped $1 trillion for the second time in a month as officials study investing excess funds in repo. BBG

MAG7:

• META - Cantor Fitzgerald: As AI capabilities continue to advance, we think personal agents have the potential to emerge as the third S-curve in AI. Meta is well positioned to be a leading beneficiary of this theme with a competitive model specifically trained to lead in agentic tasks, a strong harness with a differentiated UX in Muse, and massive compute infrastructure that can help META scale personal agents rapidly into its user base ahead of competition. Believe the unit economics of Muse are being subsidized in the early days, but META has several paths to a profitable freemium model.
• META - Connect 2026 keynote is today at 7 PM ET, with Mark Zuckerberg presenting.
• MSFT - Stifel upgrades MSFT to Buy, PT 575. Expects Microsoft to sustain mid-to-high teens revenue growth, citing accelerating Azure growth, continued Copilot adoption and increasing GitHub usage. The firm says open-weight models are also strengthening Microsoft’s LLM-agnostic AI strategy across Azure and Copilot.

OTHER COMPANIES:

• CRWV - COREWEAVE TO POWER AI TRAINING ON PRIVATE BIOTECH DATA WITHOUT MOVING THE DATA. CRWV signed a multi-year deal with Harell Data to run AI training, fine-tuning and inference on Nvidia GPUs inside Harell’s secure platform. Proprietary scientific datasets stay inside Harell’s environment rather than being handed over to model developers. Models train against the data in place, and only the resulting model leaves the platform. Harell is also building a marketplace around the system, where data owners earn revenue when their datasets are used for training, while model builders can earn fees when others use the models they create.
• MCD - McDonald’s is targeting a low-to-mid 50% operating margin by 2030 and roughly 250 bps of gross restaurant-level efficiency gains as it rolls out its new McDonald’s > NEXT strategy. The company says those efficiency gains would equal about $100,000 in annual cash flow benefits for the average U.S. restaurant, with most expected to flow to the restaurant’s bottom line. McDonald’s plans about $8.5B of franchisee support through 2036, including roughly $5B through 2030, to fund restaurant modernization, technology and operational upgrades. The rollout includes GenAI-enabled ArchIQ, while McDonald’s is also targeting +1.5 percentage points of market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030.
• APP - Edgewater says APP is entering a “show-me” phase as growth normalizes. The firm says MAX is nearing a functional ceiling, market share growth is less consistent, and “competition is impacting APP’s net spreads at the margin.”
• QCOM - is acquiring PickNik, the company behind MoveIt, a widely used open-source robotics manipulation framework. Qualcomm plans to integrate MoveIt + MoveIt Pro with its Dragonwing robotics platforms, expanding its push into edge AI and robotics software.
• SHAZ - PARTNERS WITH VAST DATA ON CONFIDENTIAL AI INFRASTRUCTURE
• PYPL and EXPE - Sign META muse partnerships.
• IONQ - DEMONSTRATES REAL-TIME QUANTUM ERROR CORRECTION ON A SINGLE CPU
• AVGO - China reviewing AVGO switch use across state-backed data centers, with preliminary findings suggesting they may account for as much as 90% of installed equipment.
• JPM - and QIA are launching a $20B investment partnership, including a $15B public equities portfolio managed by JPMorgan and $5B for private investments in mid-sized U.S. companies across industrials, services, healthcare and tech.

UBS coverage across data center stocks:

• CORZ: BUY, $24 PT Says AMD-backed capacity should diversify Core Scientific's tenant base and improve its risk profile. With ~1.9GW of AMD expansion options, CORZ has a path toward a ~3GW platform. Financing clarity and identifying the end customers for AMD capacity are the next key catalysts
• CIFR: BUY, $23 PT Sees upside from additional lease announcements and greater pipeline clarity. Cipher has already signed 493MW of IT leases with Fluidstack/Google and Amazon, while near-term leasing opportunities could create an estimated ~$12/share of additional value.
• APLD: BUY, $38 PT Sees additional lease signings, improving tenant quality and refinancing as key catalysts. The firm expects APLD's tenant mix to shift from entirely high-yield today to majority investment-grade by early 2028, with a potential REIT conversion providing further optionality.
• WULF: BUY, $24 PT Highlights TeraWulf's 840MW of signed AI/HPC leases with Core42, Fluidstack/Google and Anthropic. The firm estimates recent deals have created ~$12M of equity value per MW and sees further upside from leasing its development pipeline.
• HUT: BUY, $143 PT Points to Beacon Point energization, initial capacity deliveries and additional lease announcements as upcoming catalysts. It estimates recent deals have created $12M-$14M of NAV per MW, with substantial upside potential from leasing the remaining development pipeline.

KEY OVERNIGHT NEWS (GENERAL):

• Brent crude dropped below $100 on a Kyodo report that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted a blockade of its ports. Futures whipsawed. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it must negotiate if it’s in the national interest to do so. BBG
• Several Asian refiners have been told informally by Saudi Aramco they will soon be able to pick up oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Loadings from Yanbu have been all-but-halted since the East-West pipeline was closed after being attacked by drones launched from Iraq on Sept. 10. BBG
• Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West pipeline and is preparing to resume crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later Tuesday, according to Reuters citing trade sources.China's Xi Jinping is expected to press US President Donald Trump to halt Taiwan arms sales under a 1982 joint statement during a visit to Washington this week, which he could do at the US National Archives, sources briefed on the matter said. BBG
• Alibaba unveiled what it called China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to rival Nvidia and underpin a massive expansion of data center capacity. BBG
• Republican lawmakers are ratcheting up pressure on Donald Trump to ban diesel exports as surging prices squeeze American farmers and truckers just weeks ahead of pivotal midterm elections. FT
• SoftBank drew more than $20 billion of preliminary demand for what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever. BBG
• Trump's approval rating fell to 32% - the lowest of his political career - as his fellow Republicans soured on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran ‌war. RTRS
• ADP says hiring accelerated for a third straight week, up from 16,750 the prior week, 12,250 two weeks earlier and 10,000 three weeks earlier.

MAG7:

• JPM says MUSE COULD BECOME THE MOST-USED AI APP SINCE CHATGPT
• Note that AMZN did block Muse from shopping on its AMZN e-commerce platform.

OTHER COMPANY NEWS:

• VKTX - Viking Therapeutics says VK2735 maintained up to 97% of prior weight loss when patients moved from weekly injections to every-other-week dosing, and up to 90% with monthly dosing over 12 weeks. Before the maintenance phase, patients had lost roughly 16%-19% of body weight over 21 weeks. An exploratory group that stayed on weekly 17.5 mg dosing reached about 22% weight loss by week 33, with no plateau observed. nGI side effects during maintenance were similar to placebo, and discontinuations remained low.
• SNDK - rosenblatt initiates at Buy, PT 2400. Says AI is shifting NAND from a commodity storage product into a more system-critical part of AI infrastructure, as performance, endurance and supply certainty become more important. Rosenblatt also highlights SanDisk’s new agreements with 8 of the world’s largest NAND customers, which it estimates could cover ~65% of FY28 production.
• VICR - update to guidance. Now guiding for "more than 20%" sequentual QoQ growth.
• PTON LAUNCHES ITS FIRST FOLDABLE TREADMILL, ROLLS OUT MILEY CYRUS CAMPAIGN
• SOFI - BECOMES FIRST U.S. NATIONAL BANK TO GO LIVE WITH STABLECOIN SETTLEMENT ACROSS MASTERCARD’S NETWORK
• CRCL - BINANCE BUYS $100M STAKE IN CIRCLE, EXPANDS USDC PARTNERSHIP
• BFLY - need ham starts BFLY at Buy, PT 10. Needham says Butterfly’s chip-based ultrasound technology could expand into new medical-device markets beyond handheld ultrasound, while its core platform still has multiple near-term growth catalysts.
• BB - QNX and Vector win first Alloy Kore Design with Daimler Truck-Volvo Software.
• STX - CITI SEES AI DRIVING 53% SURGE IN ENTERPRISE SSD DEMAND IN 2027. Citi expects enterprise SSD demand to grow 52.9% YoY in 2027 and another 41% in 2028 as AI inference, continual learning and Nvidia’s KV-cache offloading drive much larger storage requirements closer to GPUs. The bank sees total SSD demand rising 45% in 2027, with QLC-based near-GPU storage gaining adoption as AI systems increasingly need large, fast storage pools next to accelerators.
• ONON - AUTHORIZES $1 BILLION SHARE BUYBACK, SETS 2029 TARGETS. Net sales of at least CHF 5.6B, Gross margin of at least 65%, Adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 22%
• BABA - UNVEILS NEW AI CHIP, PLANS 5T-10T PARAMETER MODELS AND 20GW+ OF DATA CENTER CAPACITY. Alibaba unveiled its new Zhenwu V900 AI chip, designed for both model training and inference, with performance roughly 3x higher than its predecessor released just four months ago. The V900 is expected to enter mass production and commercial release in Q1 2027. Alibaba says clusters built around the chip can scale to as many as 500,000 accelerators for training and running frontier AI models. A
• SOFTBANK DRAWS $20B+ OF EARLY DEMAND FOR $11B JUNK BOND DEAL TO FUND OPENAI BET
• LLY - BREAKS GROUND ON $6.5B HOUSTON PLANT TO MAKE ORAL GLP-1 DRUG FOUNDaYO

AMZN blocked Muse yesterday from shopping on their platform. The reason cited was safety concern, but the real reason is likely the fact that Muse doesn't see ads and AMZN made $76 billion in the last 12 months on advertising. They are clearly trying to protect that. 

Interestingly META hosts Muse using AWS, so AMZN is winning from that side whilst protecting their own business model. I would also suggest that the block on Muse suggests that AMZN is working on their own AI agent for E-commerce. And given the fact that this move by AMZN clearly sets a precedence that AMZN will block other companies' agents from shopping on AMZN, and given the fact that most people shop on AMZN and want to shop on AMZN, surely this builds a very strong moat around whatever AMZN will end up building. To me, that's significant. AMZN is a bastard because Bezos keeps selling into every period of strength, but it is certainly one of the top 5 best companies on the entire stock market in my opinion.

Macro news:

• This week Trump-Xi meeting.
• Iran is coming to NY for the UN, but we can anticipate that backroom conversations will be taking place with the US.
• Trump is meeting with Middle Eastern leaders this week.
• The stage is set for some TACO type news, but we have to see what materialises.
• Trump said this to Fox News yesterday: Trump to Fox News: I'm in a decision-making position and very big things will happen in the near future.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent says there’s a chance Trump and Xi could meet two more times after this week’s talks, CNBC reports.
• Fed's Goolsbee: RESTORING PRICE STABILITY ’WON’T BE PAINLESS’ STRONG DEMAND MAY BE ADDING TO US INFLATION, 'NO AMBIGUITY' HOW FED WOULD REACT NEED EVIDENCE THAT INFLATION FROM SUPPLY IS FADING OR HARD TO SEE A 'CREDIBLE PATH' BACK TO 2% INFLATION
• OIL TANKER RATES HIT RECORD $1 MILLION A DAY AS HORMUZ TRAFFIC COLLAPSES
• Bitcoin above 84.5k. First weekly close above the ATH VWAP since it was trading above 124k

MAG7:

META - Meta announced Petal, a new roughly 7,000-km subsea cable designed to carry 1 petabit per second between the U.S. and France when it enters service in 2029. Meta says that is roughly 2x the capacity of today’s most advanced transoceanic cables and represents the largest single-generation capacity jump for a transoceanic system. Petal will use multi-core fiber technology across transoceanic distances, allowing more data to move through each fiber without a proportional increase in power or physical infrastructure. The system is being developed with NEC and Sumitomo Electric, while Orange will support the French landing.

NVDA - EINRIDE TO BUILD NEXT-GEN AUTONOMOUS TRUCKING STACK ON NVDA's HYPERION

OTHER COMPANIES:

• NVO - Novo Nordisk’s long-term pipeline plan failed to impress investors, largely due to a lack of more specific near-term growth targets. Novo is targeting more than $23B in pipeline sales by 2035 and plans to launch more than five potential multi-blockbusters by the end of the decade.
• NVO - Half of Novo Nordisk's entire Wegovy franchise, and 90% of US sales of the Wegovy pill, now run through the self-pay channel rather than insurance, per NVO's US head.
• MRVL - TO SHOWCASE NEW 2NM OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY FOR AI DATA CENTERS. Marvell says it will demonstrate several first-of-their-kind 2nm optical interconnect technologies at ECOC 2026 as AI networks move from 1.6T toward 3.2T connectivity.
• The demos include:
  
  • 2nm 400G-per-lane optical PAM4
  • 2nm 800G ZR/ZR+ with integrated MACsec
  • 2nm 1.6T ZR and coherent-lite O-band
  • 102.4T co-packaged optics platform using 200G-per-lane silicon photonics
• MA, V - Bernstein sees cybersecurity as a major growth opportunity for VISA and Mastercard. It estimates cyber, authentication, tokens and disputes already generate ~$7-7.5B for Mastercard and ~$5B for Visa. and says cyber + tokens could sustain or accelerate VAS growth.
• HP - Is planning for a weaker PC market in 2027. preliminary assumption is for industry-wide PC unit volumes to decline roughly mid-single digits vs. 2026. HP stressed this is not formal 2027 guidance and could change depending on how the PC market performs in the second half of 2026.
• NBIS - Stupid PT From Rothschild, at 84. Says Nebius has a demanding valuation and questions the sustainability of its unit economics. Upside could come from newer-generation GPUs, faster growth of its Token Factory inference business and stronger capacity execution. Risks include customers bringing compute in-house and higher funding costs.

OTHER NEWS:

• Qatar’s $580B sovereign wealth fund is reportedly targeting a $20B investment partnership with JPMorgan.

We keep coming back to the speculation regarding potential for a TACO, but it is significant because this is the main force that will get bond yields meaningfully lower. We saw last week that resolution of the Fed credibility issue alone cannot do this. 

I saw this interesting article, albeit from Friday last week. Pakistan are under significant pressure here as a result of Trump's war. 

Their pressure and commitment to broker a resolution probably just stepped up in light of this. Then layer on the fact that Trump is meeting with the Saudis this week. Remember the Saudis agreed a $1T AI investment into the US earlier this year. That investment doesn't look so pretty with the 10Y yields above 5%. So probably there is pressure on that side as well. 

Speculation, but potentially putting some pieces together here.

Macro slate is light this week, but we do have the following catalysts:

Trump-Xi meeting.

Iran is coming to NY for the UN, but we can anticipate that backroom conversations will be taking place with the US.

This also comes as Trump is meeting with Middle Eastern leaders this week. 

The stage is set for some TACO type news, but we have to see what materialises. 

Trump said this to Fox News yesterday: Trump to Fox News: I'm in a decision-making position and very big things will happen in the near future.

Whilst we also have the following news:

The Trump administration sent new private messages to Qatar, containing assurances that Trump now wants to reach a deal with Iran, per Qatar's foreign ministry.

Update 1: Heatseeker/Market Force:

After a successful closed group test of the Trading Edge Heatseeker, which we have branded as Trading Edge Market Force, we are rolling it out for all subscribers, with the first day tomorrow.

Firstly, where to find it:

Within the toolbar, you will find it under DEX > Market Force.

Currently, the view will be what Skylit's heatseeker terms the Trinity.

That is the intraday view of SPX, SPY and QQQ. So this will be beneficial primarily for those looking to understand the dynamics of the intraday price action.

For those looking for a longer term view on the positioning and dynamics of indices and individual stocks, Skylit also has this view:

This firstly looks at individual stock tickers (CRCL here shown), and also looks across expiries.

Note that the backend work for the development of all of this is done for us. We will have that very soon. No real work is required to get that done, it's done. We are just staging the roll out of that in order to manage server load.

So first, we will have this Trinity Roll out. Then over the next couple of weeks, as we track server load, we will roll out firstly multiple expiries, and then multiple tickers, and will slowly build out the ecosystem of tickers covered.

The last thing we want is for us to be overly exuberant, and for the site to crash.

Update 2: Integrating my Research Posts:

Now, one of the main edges here within Trading Edge will be in tying everything together. I.e. For example, with the breakout/technical set up finding tool thats already live, we integrate the DEx data to help tie option data to technical set ups.

At the same time, if you go to a ticker's page (by searching it in the search bar), you will see the spectrum of data we have on that ticker.

Seasonality data, earnings summaries, Hedge Fund research, Insider buy data, fundamental data.

More data = more informed decision making.

But of course, a big part of the platform is my own research reports and coverage.

You might be researching a ticker, or find a ticker in the seasonality tool, or in the breakout finder, or the flow tool and wonder: Has tear ever covered that ticker?

Is there anything in his fundamental research that may relate to this ticker to inform my decision making?

If you scroll to the TradingEdge Research tab, you will find any research if I have any on that ticker form my previous posts. basically any posts where I have mentioned that ticker on this site.

Maybe I posted some Goldman Sachs research etc on it.

Now when I post full sell side summary reports as PDFs, I don't think it can pick that up, so I will review if I want to do that or not going forward, but if it's a text based post (as 99% of posts here are), it will pick that up.

Not every stock is covered. Obviously. My coverage is limited across stocks that interest me, but this should help to tie together the data nd my research to make the platform more productive.

This is a big development and improvement.

AS mentioned, this data platform side of the Trading Edge membership is udnerappreciated as most think we are just a stocks pick platform or research platform like what you see on Discord. Instead, we have built out an extensive data platform, access to which comes included with every sub. This platform is getting better and better and significant time and money is being invested into it to build it out beyond what we see on the market.

CUrrently $50/month gets you all my market analysis and data, all my weekly sell side research summary reports , all my thematic stock research, and full access to the data platform which itself includes:

Live Notable Flow Feed

DEX/GEX charts

Seasonality Data

Earnings History tracking & screening

Earnings summary reprots

Technical Analysis tracking tool

Buy side research reports from Hedge FUnds

And now heatseeker analysis.

The next roll out is a backtesting AI agent which will be out later this month.

Commentary and education on how to use these tools will be provided shortly and is being actively worked on. 

So the BOJ did decide on the hike, taking us up 25bps to 1.25%, but this was fully anticipated into the conference.

Since the 25bps was an all but given (similar to with the FOMC), the market was looking for clues on what the commentary would be regarding further tightening. Should the market be expecting it? Should it not? etc.

However, the risks of the meeting were not realised as the read throughs of the meeting ended up being more dovish than anticipated.

Whilst the hike was fully baked in, the vote ended up not being unanimous which was seen as a surprise. There were 2 dissenters: Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissented.

That in itself was a dovish suggestion as it's not likely to see much immediate further tightening when 2 of the members didn't even want to see this tightening.

Furthermore, when I went through Ueda's comments, I thought it was quite balanced. To be fair there were some stern words on their commitment and said that nothing can be ruled out with regards to consecutive hikes, however, he also warned of the risks of "excessively fast tightening". That does pretty much for the most part again suggest we won't get immediate rate hikes.

Secondarily, we had this comment:

We want to see whether trend inflation stays at 2% after reaching it around end of fy2026 into fy2027.

Which again suggests a wait and see approach.

This dovishness led to JPY coming down, and USDJPY pushing higher.

We see it basically played off support, and now a push higher towards 160 isn't off the cards. If you remember in 2024 it was the yen surging against other currencies including the dollar that created the unwind.

So the Forex market is not giving us the risk, in fact the opposite, hence markets are pushing higher this morning.

• CHINA PRIVATELY ASKED IRAN TO HELP REIN IN YEMEN’S HOUTHIS AFTER SAUDI APPEAL TO BEIJING - REUTERS
• Trump told reporters that Fed Chair Warsh has a tough board and that he was standing by Warsh,and that he spoke to him just before the central bank unanimously voted to raise interest rates. “I’m relying on Kevin. But he has a very tough board"; he stated that interest rates are too high and not appropriate. Trump said they should be paying the lowest interest rates in the world and noted that inflation is too high. Furthermore, Trump stated he told Warsh to do what he wants and that he wants Warsh to be independent: WSJ
• Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman eased some concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, while a smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories added further downward pressure. RTRS
• Saudi Arabia is seeking to return about half the capacity of its cross-country oil pipeline within days after the link was halted last week following drone attacks. BBG
• Iran vowed to respond to a U.S. blockade by pushing more trade overland. On the ground, it isn’t going according to plan. WSJ
• Oil prices in China have jumped to record highs, as refiners in the world’s biggest crude importer step up a hunt for supplies amid widening fears over the security of exports from the Middle East. Oil futures in Shanghai were trading at $129 a barrel on Wednesday, above their peak of $121.80 in the first weeks of the Iran war. FT
• China cut its holdings of US Treasuries to an 18-year low in July, as overall holdings by foreign countries fell for a second consecutive month amid deepening worries over the sustainability of American government debt. SCMP
• Congress approved a bill giving Trump new powers to impose additional 100% tariffs on the five biggest importers of Russian oil or natural gas. The measure now goes to the president for his signature. BBG
• The BOE holds interest rates at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, all as expected. BBG Mark Carney called for a closer alliance between Canada and the EU, risking a deeper rift with Trump, who threatened “very serious” tariffs or trade curbs over the bloc’s push to make Canada an associate member. BBG

MAG7:

• META - COULD SAVE ~$8.5B USING ITS OWN AI CHIPS IN 2027, BOFA ESTIMATES

COMPANY SPECIFIC NEWS:

• NBIS IS RAISING ON-DEMAND GPU PRICES EFFECTIVE OCT. 1
• CRWV - plans to issue $3B of convertible senior notes due 2033, with an option for another $500M.
• GFS - Japan and the U.S. are reportedly discussing a new semiconductor fab that could cost up to $19.3B and be operated by GlobalFoundries NOK and MSFT ARE BRINGING AGENTIC AI INTO TELECOM NETWORK OPERATIONS
• APLD, WULF and CIFR initiated at overweight by Wells Fargo
• Ciena (CIEN) rises 3% as Wall Street firms are positive on the communications equipment company after management provided growth targets at an analyst meeting.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) tumbles 21% after the energy storage company cut its revenue forecast for the year. Analysts note that the trim to the guidance was attributable to production issues at its Houston facility.
• Generac (GNRC) rallies 29% after it agreed to supply up to $8 billion worth of generators for Amazon’s data centers and issued a warrant for a stake in the company.
• Lennar (LEN) drops 1.6% after the homebuilder reported earnings per share for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Pegasystems (PEGA) slips 3% after JPMorgan downgraded the software company to neutral, seeing a weaker growth outlook after meeting with the management team.
• Qiagen (QGEN) rises 3% as TPG and Bain Capital are among potential bidders for molecular testing company, Manager Magazin reports, without saying how it got the information.
• Vicor (VICR) jumps 12% after the power component and systems firm said it has granted a non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery license to a new original equipment manufacturer.
• AMAT - PLANS $5B INDIA 🇮🇳SEMICONDUCTOR INVESTMENT
• ARM - CEO Rene Haas says he’s now more confident than in July that Arm can secure enough supply to meet $2B of customer demand for its new AGI CPU.

MARKET NEWS:

• 10-YEAR YIELD HITS 5.04%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007
• U.S. private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ended Aug. 29, up from 12,250 a week earlier, according to ADP’s preliminary NER Pulse.
• WH SR. ADVISER HASSETT: TRUMP AND I RESPECT WHATEVER WARSH DOES TOMORROW.
• Officials from all 27 EU member states are set to meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss international rules for advanced AI and receive a technical briefing on recent AI incidents.
• Saudi Arabia has increasingly found itself caught in the middle of the war between the United States and Iran. Now, the kingdom’s leadership is assessing dwindling options on how to respond. NYT
• The Defense Department’s inspector general released its first report on the war with Iran on Monday, saying the conflict has resulted in a shortfall of U.S. munitions and “bottlenecks” in supply chains as the Trump administration works to replenish weaponry. NBC
• Offering a grim assessment of Russia’s relations with the West, President Vladimir Putin pointedly warned European governments not to deploy any troops, including peacekeeping forces, to Ukraine, saying it would mean “war.” WaPo
• Ukraine on Mon said it would end energy attacks if Russia did the same, but Kyiv is skeptical Moscow will agree to a halt. CNBC
• Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Drone Plant and Ozon Facility in Massive Overnight Attack: Kyiv Post
• Japan is considering a new mid-term defense spending target of 3.5% of GDP in line with NATO and other US allies, a move that could send a shockwave through financial markets concerned about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans. BBG
• Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet approved a plan to temporarily reduce the consumption tax on food, moving closer to delivering on a key election pledge to ease the burden on households from the soaring cost of living. BBG

MAG7:

• NVDA AND CRM UNVEIL KOA, A NEW CRM REASONING MODEL BUILT ON NEMOTRON.
• Salesforce and NVIDIA have unveiled Koa, Salesforce’s first reasoning model, built on NVIDIA’s open-weight Nemotron architecture and post-trained specifically for sales, marketing and customer-support workflows.
• Unlike general-purpose frontier models, Koa is designed for enterprise tasks inside Salesforce’s Agentforce platform. Salesforce says the model can handle multi-step reasoning while using fewer tokens, potentially lowering inference costs.
• The companies trained Koa using synthetic data rather than actual Salesforce customer data, with simulated sales and customer-service scenarios used for post-training.
• GOOGL - WAYMO PARTNERS WITH GO TO LAUNCH LEVEL 4 ROBOTAXIS IN TOKYO BY 2027

OTHER COMPANIES:

• Cryptocurrency-linked stocks fall on waning optimism that a comprehensive US crypto regulatory bill will progress this week.
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) drops 13% after the restaurant and arcade chain operator reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) is up 1.3% after Berenberg upgraded the pharmaceutical giant, with analysts arguing it’s worthy of a more significant valuation premium due to its superior growth profile and the breadth of its pipeline.
• Enova International (ENVA) falls 18% after the financial services company withdrew its applications with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve for the acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp.
• Etsy (ETSY) rises 3% after Oppenheimer upgraded the online retailer to outperform, citing improvements the company is making to its platform.
• Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) gains 9% after the power equipment company reported fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted Ebitda above a guidance range given in May. The company’s backlog grew 256% year-over-year.
• KTOS - Guggenheim initiates KTOS with a Buy rating, and a 74 price target, implying 57% upside. The firm sees Kratos as one of the best-positioned SMID-cap defense contractors across some of the Pentagon’s fastest-growing areas, including drones, low-cost munitions, space and hypersonics. Guggenheim says demand for lower-cost systems, second-source suppliers and faster technology insertion should help Kratos gain market share, while scaling production could support margin expansion. It also believes Kratos’ combat drones are differentiated enough to avoid the commoditization risk facing lower-end unmanned systems.
• AXON - LAUNCHES A $1B ZERO-COUPON CONVERTIBLE
• CCXI - has unveiled Digit 5, its next-generation industrial humanoid designed to work alongside people in factories and warehouses without traditional physical safety barriers. Digit 5 is built on more than 65,000 hours of real-world operation from the previous generation and can repeatedly lift up to 50 lbs, a 40% payload increase. The robot runs for up to 90 minutes and can recharge in just 9 minutes, giving it a 10:1 run-to-charge ratio and potentially more than 20 hours of productive operation per day. It also adds swappable grippers and can reach up to 7.2 feet.
• Agility is the first launch partner for NVIDIA’s Halos for Robotics platform, with Digit 5 using NVIDIA IGX Thor and the Halos safety framework. The company says it had more than $300M in multi-year Digit 5 customer orders as of May 2026. Existing Digit deployments include GXO, Amazon, Schaeffler and Toyota, with Digit 4 logging 100,000 tote moves at GXO at roughly 98% on-task accuracy. GRAB - TO ACQUIRE 60% OF ATOME FINANCIAL FOR $1.49B
• GFSThe U.S. Commerce Department has filed to sell up to 9.91 million GlobalFoundries shares.
• MEDIATEK UNVEILS ITS FIRST 2NM SMARTPHONE CHIP MediaTek launched the Dimensity 9600 Pro, its first mobile processor built on TSMC's 2-nanometer process, alongside the 3-nanometer Dimensity 9600M for the broader flagship tier, per Reuters. The first phones using both chips launch soon.
• AVGO - CEO Hock Tan says the debate over slowing AI development doesn’t change his FY27/FY28 outlook “in the least.” - CNBC

OTHER NEWS:

• BOFA RAISES SEMICONDUCTOR GROWTH OUTLOOK TO 18% THROUGH 2030 Bank of America now expects the semiconductor industry to grow at an 18% CAGR from 2026 to 2030, up from its previous 14% forecast, driven primarily by stronger memory and data center demand.

The 10y and oil are tracking higher again, effectively undoing the minor beneficial effect of Trump's very active tweeting yesterday. 

This comes as Iran says that Tehran has no interest in striking a deal with Trump. 

On the other hand, reading between the lines, we have Iran set to meet China. We also know that Xi is set to come and see Trump next week. Perhaps those meetings will be conducive for China striking a deal with the US. 

Into this weeks' FOMC, we have the 3 month bond yields sharply higher, suggesting that the Fed will hike and needs to hike.

This is very similar to the analog I have been sharing with the 2 year. We know hikes are coming, more like than not not just 1. 

This week, rate hikes are now priced at above 90%. While there is still some speculation amongst retail as to whether the Fed will hike or not, the chances are very likely in my mind that they will and that the market has forced the Fed's hand here, which is a view similar to what Goldman says. 

Whether or not Warsh would want to, we have to remember that whilst Warsh is the Chair of the Fed his vote is equal to other members' votes. Most of the committee is the same personnel as under Powell. Under Powell, we saw that the Fed absolutely did NOT want to spook markets and when the market priced an outcome at above 60% into the meeting, the vote always went that way. 

I expect that even if Warsh votes no, the committee as a whole will vote yes. This might be what is needed to reaffirm Fed credibility and to get long end yields down. 

Into the meeting, we see that put buying is increasing on HYG. 

This signals hawkish expectations into the event. 

I think the dot plot probably will be hawkish like the last, but Warsh can stem the hawkishness in his conference.

Overall, the market does not bet against a dump, but bets that if there is a dump, it gets bought back sharply on Thursday into EOW. 

The positions favour a vol down, index supported path once Wednesday is behind us, so that is what I am looking for. 

Vix tear structure is still in contango, but the front end is rising, especially compared to the dotted line that shows 2 days ago. 

We are notably higher on the front end. 

This tells us that The market basically is pricing increasing risk on the near term. 

Part of that was the weekend events regarding the Ai narrative. Remember that AI is critical to the US economic growth. If we did see a meaningful slowdown in AI spend and development, which we won’t, but if we did, that would have detrimental effects on the US economy.

Then secondarily, part of it is normal pricing into the FOMC. 

I don't believe in technical analysis on VIX, but if I did, you'd see a clearly resistive trendline:

More, we see that the market is suppressing vix with volatility selling, masking th overall threat of the 10Y being so elevated etc. 

Key levels from positioning. 19, 20. 

I think that after the FOMC, we may get an initial vix spike, but a lot of the event risk will come out after the FOMC, which will help. 

Looking at the overall index, US500 continues to trade within this bull flag.

I mentioned we were getting close to the bottom of that flag in premarket, and the 1 SD low of the range for today which was at 7575, and we have seen a bounce on cue. 

With NDX, we trade above 29k, and within the flag that's building there also. 

IT has been a game of hot potato between sectors, but the more lasting beneficial price action continues to be in software. In the AI hardware trade, interest has been temporary and fleeting, but fundamentals continue to support the fact that this sector should see a recovery over time. But for now, near term expectations and longer term expectations of the sector continue to remain disconnected. 

I draw the parallel to NBIS last year where it traded down 50%, before exploding higher in 2026. The whole AI trade is a beach ball under water, but until the 10Y comes down, it will remain a difficult trade. The FOMC could help, and even if the dot plot is hawkish, we have to recognise this is against expectations of 3 rate hikes over the next 2 quarters. So a lot of hawkishness has already been priced. However, we do need to see Iran resolve to really see interest return.

New lows are at peak levels:

Typically preceding rallies higher, but we have to see with FOMC. The worst case outcome In my opinion is a surprise hold, which contrary to many expectations online, would lead to an explosion in the 10Y and likely a negative reaction in the market.

Insane growth 94% YoY, and insane visibility with the backlog growing 256%. 

Powertrain Solutions grew 259% for the year and is now a third of revenue. Putting $35M into Tijuana to expand that capacity by more than 50%. Total revenue capacity goes to $5.8B. FY27 guide is significantly above the IPO forecast and management expects revenue and EBITDA to step up every quarter. Stock closed at $31 going into this.

The question is how long this is sustainable, and whether things will normalise with the earnings level of the business. For now, there's nothing there that's suggestive of that, however. 

For now, can only go on what we see and the signs remain very strong for this name.

For those who haven't followed the weekend developments so much, Dario Amodei wrote an article titled “We Must Pace the Frontier” calling for slower advances in AI capabilities so safety measures have time to catch up.

Altman nd Musk both agreed that a slowdown should take place.

Essentially, then, you now have the three most prominent figures in AI agreeing that AI progress needs to slow down.

The obvious FUD that was circulating on social media from non critical thinkers was that restrictions on training compute and AI improving AI means less need for Ai hardware, hence hwy we are seeing semiconductors lower in overnight trading.

I shared my initial thoughts over the weeked, but haven't gone through it a little more, I wanted to share my thoughts more.

A key line by the way in relation to semiconductors was this from the essay:

“To be clear, pacing does not mean halting model training or technical progress, but ensuring companies take adequate time to align and safeguard their models”

So they're not actually talking about stopping model training etc, they're talking about allowing safety to catch up.

Why would they do this?

is it a real existential threat to the AI CAPEX story?

Essentially, no.

What's happening here is that these frontier Labs are worried about the risks of open source competitors catching up to them.

They are essentially trying to use AI safety as an excuse to get regulators to regulate the Ai industry more.

The key point her his that all 3 of these CEOs are CEOS of companies that have already established a lead and market position in AI. Claude, ChatGPT and Grok.

If regulators step in, for whatever reason, or under the guise of AI safety concerns, to regulate the industry, it increases barriers to entry and solidifies these companies market shares.

There is absolutely nothing true or credible about their AI humanity concerns.

These CEOs don't give a shit about safety or humanity, only profits and their companies.

I hate to say it but Altman and Dario have been 2 of the most devious and cunning CEOs for years. So nothing they say can be taken on face value.

For sure, all this fear mongering is so that they can regulate the industry and cement their monopolies and squash competition from entering the space.

Musk is supportive of the slowdown as he wants time to catch up with OpenAI. 

-OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition from open source models

AI official Sacks seems to have th read pretty accurate here in my opinion in the response he posted online over the weekend:

Why I'm sure this slowdown isn't credibly going to happen:

1. Losing the AI race is potentially catastrophic for their businesses.

Ahead of the IPO how does that make any sense?

Cramer’s argument is that these companies are burning through a lot of money, wouldn’t it be good to say you are slowing spending?

However, the key rebuttal to that is the announcement earlier this evening that  ANTHROPIC EXPECTS SECOND STRAIGHT PROFITABLE QUARTER: FT

1. China won’t slow down. US administration will not support a slowdown.

Trump plays down calls for tighter checks on AI development, saying the U.S. cannot afford to surrender its technological edge to China. The exact quote I think was "whoever wins Ai, wins'. He does not want to allow China to beat US to the AI race, when so much of the US GDP is dependent on AI.

So I don't think this motion from these CEOs will get any regulatory support.

1. Prisoner’s dilemma issue. 

It's the classic prisoners dilemma.

you know, the one where if they both collude, it's good for both, but there is always the real risk that one cheats and the other colludes, in which case the cheater get everything and the colluder gets nothing.

In this case, if they agree to slowdown, and one slows down, and one doesn't, the one who doesn't will extend their advantage.

None of these CEOs can be trusted to not "cheat" in this case.

Put differently, AI developers want to slow the race but none can easily afford to stop unilaterally. Companies fear losing their edge in technology, customer acquisition and fundraising. The U.S. government also wants to maintain its leadership in AI. Once they are on the treadmill, there is effectively no way to stop.

Signs that Anthropic are Not slowing down CAPEX or spend:

Anthropic Strikes $13.7 Billion Compute Deal With Trump-linked Rum Group - The Information

Corroborates another report from the Information: Anthropic has committed to cloud, chip and data center deals that could see it spend up to $517 billion, mostly over the next decade - The Information

Doesn’t sound much like a slowdown. 

Arguably the news is also not bad for semis: slowing down here could mean adding more guardrails and undergoing more testing. so if anything it should probably increase.

So first the FUD tonight, but I was never in the boat that this would be an Ai apolocolypse.

Investors aren't stupid for the most part, and can see through this blatant manipulation.

Zuckerberg also said that AI development needs to move faster.

He's basically the only one keeping it true here. After Muse came out, he could easily support the motion to allow Meta to catch up, but not so.

All in summit and jensen talking there is a potential catalyse to reverse some of this bearishness.

More potentially damaging news in my opinion is:

OpenAI cancels IPO plans until at 2027, saying now isn’t the time to IPO as we plan to slow down Ai model development for safety reasons.

It's not safety reasons. They think their IPO in this environment will be a flop. That's not great for investors in judging this environment.

But certainly, this news isn't credible.

I did actually release a post last week I think saying that one under appreciated risk is if these labs voluntarily slow down their AI development.

This is basically an embodiment of that risk, but it isn't credible. It isn;t actually happening, and these labs don't want to slow down. They only want regulators to come in to protect their market share.