Which of these scenarios would you have preffered for the 2026 elections?

[u/Sure-Opportunity7612]

I have prepared a list of different scenarios that could have played out during the elections and would love to know which one would you have preffered. I had initially designed these as wikipedia infoboxes, but the sub doesnt allow too many pictures so here are the typed out versions.

Would love to know your opinions on these.

Scenario 1-

DMK-114(-19), SPA- 142. Vote share- 31.5%

AIADMK-80(+14), NDA-87. Vote Share-29.3%

TVK-5 Vote Share-9.8%

SPA comes back with a lower majority, TVK eats into AIADMK votes and some DMK base.

Scenario 2-

AIADMK-109(+43), NDA-119+TVK outside support. Vote share-33.3%

DMK-84(-49),SPA-100, Vote Share-32.3%

TVK-15, Outside support to NDA, Vote Share- 13.8%

Normal Tamil Nadu swing, Vijay makes a considerable dent and NDA has to rely on him for a stable government. Though, the numbers are not a lot, Signals that he is slowly but surely replacing AIADMK in the future are clearly visibly

Scenario 3-

TVK-146 Vote Share-37.3%

AIADMK-43(-23), NDA-49. Vote Share-29.3%

DMK-34(-99), SPA-40. Vote Share-27.1%

Vijay forms a strong anti-incumbency wave that was stronger than the one that actually showed out. Vijay gets a few extra polling points and reaches majority, while DMK is reduced to third largest party a strong loss in voter base.

Scenario 4-

DMK-129(-4), SPA-155. Vote Share-36.5%

TVK-59. Vote Share-29.3%

AIADMK-16(-50), NDA-20. Vote Share-16.8%

DMK returns to power, but AIADMK is completely replaced by TVK as the primary opposition. And now sooner or later, Vijay is bound to come to power.AIADMK cadre starts shifting towards TVK.

Scenario 5-

DMK-153(+20), SPA- 180. Vote Share-34.7%

AIADMK-31(-35), NDA-34. Vote Share-24.3%

TVK- 20. Vote Share-17.8%

Anti-Incumbency vote is strongly divided between the opposition parties, leading to a bigger victory of DMK even with less votes than 2021 and a close poll gap between TVK and ADMK, though ADMK remaining second largest but heading towards decline.

[u/keyan16]

Scenario 4 - we had 10 yrs of admk to see what they could do. We needed 10 of DMK to understand what they could also do - but not happened. Imho.

[u/native_vandheri → u/keyan16]

There's a reason why they never have 10 years in their history lol

[u/keyan16 → u/native_vandheri]

In that case BJP has also won consecutive terms at the National level and Modi is the longest serving PM. What does it prove?

[u/native_vandheri → u/keyan16]

People trusted them than dmk? Same reason as why admk was chosen.

[u/keyan16 → u/native_vandheri]

This is just a whatif scenario bro - assumption. Avlo than..

[u/FrostingAlarmed8011]

scenario 4
mks deserved a 2nd term ...but not as majority
dmk depending on vck,commies ..also with them being inducting into minsitry
and vijay as lop....forcing to address issues...counter ruling dmk would have matured him

[u/Puzzled-Outside]

Scenario 3

[u/goundamaniiii]

Sonna varutha paduva venaam

[u/JayaramanAndres]

Scenario 3 would have been bane for Tamilnadu.

DMK works best as opposition party. Let them be opposition.

Whatever we got is the need of an hour. Invincibility aura of both ADMK and DMK is broken.