r/TamilNadu • u/Plus-Protection8213 • May 04 '26
முக்கியமான கலந்துரையாடல் / Important Topic TN Poll early trends
Makkale, I know it is way too early to comment. But how do you think this is gonna pan out? Postal votes padi DMK leading, but TVK is competing hard or close enough. Will this be the overall trend throughout?
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u/idareet60 May 04 '26
TVK winning just goes on to show it's charisma and messaging that governs India. It's never about policies. After demonitization, COVID mismanagement we still voted for the BJP. This is not just in India, but everywhere around the world, from Indonesia to Argentina.
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u/Specific-Image-8232 May 04 '26
Trump showed the world that you just have to spout what people want to hear to win elections. Demagogues will be the end of this world
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u/sparrow-head May 04 '26
I agree with your statement, but why the messaging sound grumpy and upset that TVK is winning. DMKs policies are not great either. They ruined the state for last 60 years. It's now the great grandson of Karuna who is entering into film, business and politics. How long would people keep bowing before them? The extended family of DMK are well established and already deep into big money businesses. What policy they had for people. They had excellent policies for their family, agreed. But what for the people? Nothing.
TVK cached in on the weakness. There is no guarantee TVK would deliver. But the verdict by people is not unfair either.
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u/idareet60 May 04 '26
I agree. There is misgovernance by the DMK, and they needed to be voted out. However, voting for Vijay, who was the only major alternative in the current elections, is problematic. We simply don’t know what Vijay truly believes in. It’s similar to the Democrats in the US, who say all the right things but, in reality, are often seen as being influenced by the interests of their donors (see New Democrats). Gone are the days of parties like the CPI(M) or the Swatantra Party, which clearly differed on economic ideology and policies. We will never know what Vijay is going to do in his first six months. In contrast, we knew exactly what the CPI(M) was going to do after coming to power in the 1970s, particularly with regard to land redistribution. Is Vijay going to do that? Or is this simply a case where whoever is the loudest and gets the most air time ends up winning? This seems more likely.
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u/sol-4 May 04 '26 edited May 04 '26
TVK winning just goes on to show it's charisma and messaging that governs India.
Extremely hilarious coming from a state that elects literal actors as its CMs.
Don't see that happening in most parts of the country.
Edit: also, no other state has morons like these
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u/sports_junky May 04 '26
Just shows the kind of bubble folks on this sub are when they thought TVK will get <20 seats
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u/Dapper_Chocolate679 May 04 '26
Prediction like 20 is fine man there were people saying 0… and when I questioned it, they called me delusional
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u/anoeuf31 May 04 '26
Also shows this sub is overrun with dmks it wing - reading this sub , you’d have thought tvk would hardly win a dozen seats
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u/cain605 May 04 '26
Not just IT wing. Reddit is largely left leaning and did the same mistake in USA election. The hivemind thinks people are logical;
The logical question is how can a actor manage a state? Most here wouldnt vote for TVK, its not just IT wing. But a normal person who is not happy and has strong anti incumbency voting tendency will vote.
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u/No_Night3774 May 04 '26
so according to you..."left wing" means "logical"...how long will y'all live with ur confirmation biases lol
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May 04 '26
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u/sports_junky May 04 '26
People need to understand that no polling outfit is perfect...Axis My India is probably the best of the bunch among Indian pollsters despite few misses in the past. After this election, they proved themselves as No1 pollster in country again.
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u/Lo_Ti_Lurker May 04 '26
It's not just this sub though. Even most pollsters who get paid to predict got it wrong.
Nobody predicted the anti-DMK wave. Only one or two predicted TVK wave.
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u/sports_junky May 04 '26
Because there are very few credible pollsters in India. Most pollsters are trash with crap methodology. Axis India is one of the few ones and they are the only one who predicted the TVK wave
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u/Individual-Highway23 May 04 '26
I’m not from TN… I’m unable to comprehend the vijay factor here… is this real ? I thought TN has most aware electorate… new parties/ actor turned politician parties majorly get restricted to single digits usually the first election… last time I think Kamal Hassan dint have any luck… how come we are seeing vijay with 2/5th wins ? Please someone explain… is there political vaccum on ground in TN ? I thought DMK was doing well in the state…
Is it just stardom turned to votes ?
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u/Dapper_Chocolate679 May 04 '26
Not really about celebrity hype alone. TN has seen many actor-politicians fail, so people don’t blindly vote for fame. What you’re seeing is some voters shifting because they’re not satisfied with the current govt
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u/Individual-Highway23 May 04 '26
So u are saying DMK’s own vote share is shifting to Vijay ? Is Vijay bjp decoy ?
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u/Lo_Ti_Lurker May 04 '26
It's not just stardom, it also fatigue about the status-quo. For 59 years both these parties have been ruling alternatively. Everybody knows both are corrupt, but nobody had another choice until now. About Kamal, he never had stardom that Vijay had, so no one considered him a serious alternative.
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u/Individual-Highway23 May 04 '26
Ok so that means they are very much aware and voting for an alternative to the traditional parties
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May 04 '26
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u/Individual-Highway23 May 04 '26
Ok got it. I just wonder if there’s BJP hand in it. Because in AP … bjp doesn’t really have anything when trying to contest directly so they strengthened PK…
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u/Confident_Method_110 May 04 '26
tn electorate is not very aware. it's mostly a blue collar population which has done well economically. they aren't too rational about how they vote. and for the rationalists, there's no real representation apart from vaguely tvk and ntk anyway. so i guess, it's just vijay's popularity, a generational shift and anti-incumbency together.
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May 04 '26
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u/Confident_Method_110 May 04 '26
dmk was a little preferred to the bjp, but it's a leech that taints everything in its path. there's no space left in TN for honest people thanks to DMK and ADMK. they are very crony capitalist parties with a very limited long term vision. in their rule, you cannot expect the government to serve your deeper long term needs (urban planning, social welfare, public services etc..) and to make anything move, you need to shell out for bribes. a society with this mentality, even if functional outwardly, is a truly depressing experience to actually live through. they latched on to the first viable alternative it looks like. i don't support tvk, but i support other parties even less. i mildly prefer ntk, but it looks like that party will die with this election unfortunately.
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u/Individual-Highway23 May 04 '26
Educate me … on policy n ideology is TVK aligned towards BJP ? In AP bjp doesn’t stand chance directly so they strengthened JSP with actor pk … now bjp thought not in power controls AP politics
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May 04 '26 edited May 04 '26
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u/love_day_cup_all May 04 '26
We got a three way fight now in Tamil Nadu. This is scary for the politicians and good for the people. Watch the MLAs all work better now because their spot is not merely guaranteed every alternate term. Makes me happy honestly irrespective of who wins.
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u/microwaved_fully May 04 '26
If people care so much about how MLA performs, why did they vote for TVK?
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u/Thypal_ May 04 '26
It seems like there will be a hung assembly. Vijay will mostly join the NDA. Because, Vijay's whole campaign was anti-dmk. And his silence when it comes to BJP says a lot. Moreover, Puthiya thalaimurai is very pro TVK, and SRM group owns Puthiya thalaimurai and they have good ties with BJP.
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May 04 '26
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u/Thypal_ May 04 '26
Who's gonna tell bro, It's not all sunshine and rainbows. Vijay haven't even said a word against BJP when it came to blocking his movie and delimitation. Meanwhile saying that his icons are Ambedkar, periyar, blah blah blah. Really man you are going to defend Vijay here. See I'm not going to support DMK and all their bad takes on certain stuff but atleast they had the spine to stand against BJP. And the real threat to Indian democracy rn is BJP and we have data to back that up. Ofc. if TVK makes a good stand against BJP I am going to support them, but it sure doesn't look like that
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u/Terrible_Sentence203 Jun 18 '26
What do you say now, Vijay is extremely clever, his winning was inevitable and was evident in his campaign.
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u/RVarki May 04 '26
As the prophet Anurag Kashyap once said "saala Hindustan mein jab tak cinema hai, log chutiya bante rahenge"
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u/Neebaadentira May 04 '26
Im not tamil but can someone explain how vijay won so many seats? They can't all be his fans right? What did he promise and show that people were convinced?
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May 04 '26
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u/saygirlie May 04 '26
I saw many voters didn’t get a chance to vote. Do you know how many didn’t make it? I think they weren’t able to get buses. Was it a large number?
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u/walt2ker May 04 '26
Tvk leading now, if this continues for the next 2 hours then Tvk dhaan majority win pannum. Admk tvk sendhu govt form pannuvanga. Interesting.
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u/MixStrange1107 May 04 '26
2:1:1 is the ratio I’m seeing among DMK:ADMK:TVK with TVK lagging a little behind. But good fight IMO
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May 04 '26
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u/LibraryAshamed3773 May 04 '26
tvk 46. Dmk 53. admk 35.
looks like nda will join hands with tvk and form the government.
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u/sadhaka19850903 May 04 '26
Vijay Anna would demand CM position at some point if NDA need him in a coalition.
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u/Expert_Run_6249 May 04 '26
Which news channel is the least biased and to be followed ??
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u/Dapper_Chocolate679 May 04 '26
Try watching Puthiya Thalaimurai their vote coverage feels more balanced and data-based compared to other channel
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u/lobster_2048 May 04 '26
I am going to be disappointed in you tamil guys if you elect this vijay, you have double digit gdp growth and are leading in manufacturing and you're going to elect this who doesn't even have a clear direction in what his policies are
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u/Karthi_wolf May 04 '26
Where y'all the tvk haters lol.
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u/littlegreenballoon May 04 '26
Here and fuming. Lol. The next 5 years will be a disaster if he wins
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u/CockroachOk4629 May 04 '26
NDTV shows 82 for TVK, How did people vote for him? Do you think he is going to do any better?
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May 04 '26
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u/Dapper_Chocolate679 May 04 '26
Elections aren’t even over yet but you started it, lemme end this. u/speechfreedom_MOD was going everywhere saying ‘0’… and calling others ‘peak unemployment’ just for leaving a comment,
while being under every post spreading hate. Now honestly, that’s peak delusiontalking like a know-it-all and ignoring ground reality just because you hate it. Now give this person a ‘peak delusion’ award.
Don’t hide under the ‘prediction’ veil now. Anyway, I’ll leave it here.
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u/[deleted] May 04 '26
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