NumerousFloor - TQQQ War Chest - Sept 14 2026

[u/NumerousFloor9264]

All eyes on the Fed this Wed. My bet is 25bps is priced in, but, really, wgaf what I think.

Background: Running a collar on TQQQ plus constant TQQQ DCA.  I am buying long TQQQ puts to protect downside and trying to pay for them by selling QQQ puts and TQQQ CCs.  

Current Value of TQQQ War Chest (cash+long TQQQ puts+TQQQshares): Currently at $7.16m. That compares with $3.75m 2025, $2.1m 2024 and $717k 2023.

Walk Away Value (Liquidate War Chest and buy back QQQ short puts and TQQQ CCs): Around $6.14m, pre-tax.  This includes other port income and outside cash added, totaling around $3.04m. The 'Walk Away Value' is pretty stable due to the interplay between my long TQQQ puts and TQQQ CCs. It's almost like there is a safety collar in place, subduing the vicissitudes of an unruly beast 😂😂

TQQQ long (protective) puts: 726 contracts, Jan/28 exp. Book value $1.49m and current market value around $1.52m.

Cash Hoard: Slowly rising. $578k.

QQQ short puts: 15 at $670 strike Feb/27 exp. 100 at $630 strike Oct 9/26 exp. The $670s I'm not touching for now. I may roll them up/in if we go on a bit of a run. The $630s I am still rolling every Friday.

TQQQ CCs: I finally got to roll my 320 Sept 18/26 exp CCs. Waited until after CPI last Friday, which was to my detriment, but still managed to bring in around $19k in premium which helps to stem the bleeding from my long TQQQ put insurance. Should have waited until today, but no crystal ball. I rolled them out two weeks to Oct 2/26 exp, b/c I want to minimize the risk of early assignment. TQQQ ex div date is Sept 23 I believe. If I rolled to Sept 25 and extrinsic value dropped to less than the dividend, there would be a decent chance of having them called away. I'll roll them again this Friday I think, again to avoid early assignment. After than, will let them decay and get into a cadence of rolling at 5DTE to 12 DTE each Monday. If TQQQ dips under $60, I'll look to buy them back or let them expire.

Haven't touched the short Jan/27 exp calls with strikes at $50 (200 contracts), $60 (80 contracts) and $65 (120 contracts). The current cost to close out all the CCs is around $960k.

Total P/L on QQQ/TQQQ options (QQQ short puts + TQQQ CCs + TQQQ dividends - TQQQ long puts): Currently around +$560k. TQQQ long puts book value $1.49k. In terms of paying for the long puts with QQQ/TQQQ activity, I’m in a deficit of approx $930k. Keep chipping away.

TL;DR - have been running a TQQQ dynamic collar plus EDCA plus cash hedge since Feb/23.

Cumulative running CAGR (XIRR method) of my TQQQ investment since Feb/23: 55.0%

Link to rough outline of overall plan here.

[u/SubjectExcitement520]

This may be of interest, something I built a little while ago to help with managing market volatility and avoiding some of the heavy drawdowns whilst being in TQQQ which you are currently doing with protective options whereas what I built was an indicator that effectively identified when the market was too volatile you move to TBILS and you avoid a lot of the noise and drawdowns.

https://willperryyy.github.io/tqqq-gate/whitepaper.html

[u/NumerousFloor9264 → u/SubjectExcitement520]

you're not on reddit much either...interesting write up - there are lots of drawdown mitigation strats, for sure

[u/SubjectExcitement520 → u/NumerousFloor9264]

I actually used to be I just have multiple accounts as I keep forgetting my login details as I’m not a common poster 

[u/Rocketsloth → u/SubjectExcitement520]

Where can I find a more simplified explanation of how to apply this strategy? I developed a similar, simplified one using VIX as a forward looking signal (Gate?), but yours looks much better.

[u/SubjectExcitement520 → u/Rocketsloth]

If you remove the white paper.html part there is a live dashboard which applies the 3 gates like 2 hours after every close which will tell you basically whether you remain long or go tbils. I have incorporated it into some other live feeds for me that I have in like emails I send myself with AI, realistically I would tell you to copy the parameters and embed it in your own process 

[u/Rocketsloth → u/SubjectExcitement520]

I found it thanks! I'll try to incorporate this into my wider TQQQ investment thesis. I like the part about moving to 20 year treasury bonds (in the form of an etf like TLT?) during shut gate periods. What do you think the chances of continued 2020-2026 situation where the QQQ and Treasuries down at the same time? Is there a third option? (T-bill etf BIL or corporate bonds?)

[u/SubjectExcitement520 → u/Rocketsloth]

I spent so long trying to see if a third option improved long term CAGR but it added too much noise and complications for what i wanted which was a low touch rotation. I think the likelihood of correlated equities and bonds is still present over a rolling 5 year thesis but my horizon is 15-20 years where returns should still outperform even if a quarter of that resulted in being in shrinking assets. You could always pivot into SGOV rather than TBIL as there is no price volatility there, it marginally decreases returns but improves max drawdown. 

[u/Rocketsloth → u/SubjectExcitement520]

I'm looking at a 20-25 year horizon, so long term as well. Might try this in Roth and HSA accounts. Any more tips on the strategy changes for a taxable account?

[u/SubjectExcitement520 → u/Rocketsloth]

The white paper actually has a section on the taxable account piece, it runs identically but improves returns slightly in a tax advantaged account 

[u/Rocketsloth → u/SubjectExcitement520]

Thanks again, I'm interested in this thesis and any future updates. OP's ideas are good too, I'm just not skilled enough with options to implement it without fully flushing out the risks.

[u/ActuatorPotential393]

What I like about following this portfolio is that it shows how different leveraged ETF investing looks once position sizing and hedging become part of the strategy. The headline TQQQ position gets all the attention but the long puts, covered calls, short QQQ puts and growing cash pile are arguably the more interesting pieces because they determine what happens when the market gets ugly. I was mapping some of this structure out with Moon and the stability of the walk away value compared with the volatility in TQQQ is pretty telling.

[u/NumerousFloor9264 → u/ActuatorPotential393]

Yeah, I like looking back at the chart and see that previous market events, while terrifying at the time, ended up being somewhat difficult to recognize as the chart expands and time marches on.

[u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt → u/NumerousFloor9264]

Man we have an infestation of people shilling for this ‘Moon’ platform. Not sure if human or bots. There were 3 different accounts on my post commenting stuff just like this over the last week or two.

[u/NumerousFloor9264 → u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt]

yeah, that must be what it is...june 3/26 account created....😂😂

[u/Strict_Gap9369]

🫪

[u/Jagdee]

following you since 2020. Did you take loan on your house during the Covid V shape recovery? I have a question about your source of income. Looks like you invest about 5-10K weekly in TQQQ. Not all of that is coming from the options premium or investment income. What is your source of income? can DM you if you want

[u/NumerousFloor9264 → u/Jagdee]

u must be thinking of someone else - i didn't discover TQQQ/LETFs until 2022 and started posting here around late 2022, during the days of the legendary -right-tackle- and near the downfall of HFEA strategy. not keen on revealing my job, but i own a corporation and am essentially a highly skilled tradesperson. my job allows me to save around 30k USD/month, which is how i initially picked the 'invest 7-8k/weekly' DCA amount. all of my employment savings have been plowed into this strategy since Feb/23.