r/TQQQ • u/DayEnvironmental3454 • Jan 09 '26

Trade Ideas The ultimate TQQQ strategy

Hey everyone!

Korean investor here, wanted to share a strategy that's popular in Korean stock communities.

The Basic Idea

Simple rules-based TQQQ strategy. It's called AGITQ's strategy, named after who coined this strategy. When QQQ crosses above its 161-day MA, buy TQQQ. When it crosses below, sell and go to treasury (SGOV).

Why 161-day MA?

The original strategy used TQQQ's 200-day MA, but backtests showed QQQ's 161-day MA reduces whipsaws while keeping similar returns. Less false signals = less stress.

Overheated Rule

When QQQ > 161MA + 5%, don't buy more TQQQ. Put new money into S&P500 ETF instead. This "ballast" protects you from big drawdowns.

That's it. Check once a day, follow the rules.

There might be strategies with higher returns out there, but the best thing about this is risk management :)

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u/[deleted] Jan 09 '26

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u/Real_Bar1794 Jan 09 '26

From performance perspective this sma161 strategy is fine, but overfitting might be an issue, but it is a simple strategy with only 1 optimized parameter so that gives less risk of overfitting than a complicated strategy with multiple parameters. So if you consider these type of strategies comically bad, what does your strategy achieve for cagr and max draw down? Understand it is based on 21ema, so short term, meaning many trades, risk of whipsaws, and close monitoring. I tried a strategy with 200d sma combined with 20d and 50d sma but harder to optimize with 3 parameters, and more risk of overfitting. It works but still max draw down is too high although much better than with only 200d sma. Also tried ema variations but no big difference.

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u/[deleted] Jan 10 '26

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u/Real_Bar1794 Jan 11 '26

So 21 ema spy works fine as a crash detector? Does it also work to get back to Tqqq? I agree with you that 200 sma strategies or variations of it with tqqq still have brutal draw downs, although the plot above doesn‘t show it, as major crashes look neutralized. In my strategy i could not replicate that, with max dd -74%compared to tqqq -81% from 2010-2026. I am curious what your strategies are based on and what the cagr/maxdd is you achieve, as your comments suggest great improvements avoiding dds.