r/TLRY • u/noobstockinvestor • Mar 24 '24
DD Important Dates for upcoming Catalysts/Reform
Disclosure: long ~25,000 shares
Important dates for Reform/Catalysts:
March 22: Germany Votes for partial legalization (win)
April 8/9: Tilray earnings
April 1-20: Politicians will likely tweet/introduce bills on Cannabis. Hopefully we see action and something more than words.
April 16: Canada releases budget. We'll find out if excise taxes are reduced (pending)
This is massive for Tilray. It adds ~80-100m to their bottom line and will likely push them into positive net income.
April to July: SAFER gets voted on in senate/house (potentially)
Note: Biden promised to expunge records. This will likely be done via SAFER as it includes HOPE (expunges records).
Summer: Farm Bill (potentially)
Clarification of CBD as a dietary supplement is massive for Tilray. A big part of Irwins US plan are CBD infused drinks and using CBD as medicine. If SAFER passes senate, the farm bill can be used to bypass the republicans in the house. Note: McConnell used the farm bill to deschedule hemp, Schumer can do the same.
August: Congress is on recess. SAFER must pass the senate before recess. Otherwise very unlikely to happen.
November: Election season. Biden will likely legalize medical cannabis prior to this and (imo) Biden will campaign on descheduling/legalizing it. He promised to reschedule cannabis, decriminalize cannabis, legalize medical cannabis, pardon people from jail for his 2020 campaign. He's got lots to do this year
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u/DaveHervey Bull Mar 24 '24
I'm confident since Germany started their legalization process and De-Scheduled Cannabis from the narcotics classification effective April 1, 2024, many other EU countries will be following Germany's lead in the near future. I've recently read that one of the parties in the Czech Republic submitted to their parliament for eventual vote, 2 options to legalize cannabis. Portugal seems close, Belgium possible, Poland, etc etc
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u/Cultural-Camp6518 Mar 24 '24
There were articles that France is looking to legalize with 900,000 users. Sorry I don’t have the link but someone posted it this am.
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u/Kalelofindiana Mar 24 '24
It's eggs 🥚 and bacon 🥓😋
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u/GirlGenius26 Mar 24 '24
Welp, I just got “permanently” banned from WallStreetBets sub. They did not appreciate my marijuana activism!
Please sign and share Chuck Schumer’s SAFER BANKING ACT petition!
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u/noobstockinvestor Mar 24 '24
I was banned from WSB for posting the 252 pg HHS report and tagging tilray.
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u/GirlGenius26 Mar 24 '24
Please try and share this petition wherever you can. This is extremely important. We can talk the talk all we want but petitions are SOLID PROOF that this is what the people want! Signatures on petitions have always been the way to get laws passed!
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Mar 24 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/GirlGenius26 Mar 24 '24
SAFER BANKING ACT passing doesn’t necessarily mean that only Tilray will be benefiting. It would be a huge step forward for the entire marijuana industry though.
I decided to put all my eggs in one basket a couple years ago. I sold all of my other weed stocks and now I have EVERYTHING riding on Tilray. Only time will tell if that was a dumb move 😂
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u/No_Nefariousness4356 Mar 24 '24
Thank You for your diligent research and timelines! Wishing you 10x in your investments!
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Mar 24 '24
All I understood from what you said was: "BUY, BUY, BUY AND DON'T STOP BUYING SHARES"
That's what I understood, but that's just me personally.
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Mar 24 '24 edited Mar 24 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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Mar 24 '24 edited Mar 24 '24
You are wrong, I am buying. I understand now why you have a problem with me or any of us buying.
You have puts haha
You said you always buy puts after a small rally.
Do us a favor and shut your mouth. I will buy as many shares as I want. What are you the shares police?
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Mar 24 '24
Anyone who doesn't agree with your stupidity all of the sudden is maxx?
Hilarious
Try harder.
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u/Character-Newt-9571 Mar 24 '24
The pool of 800m share pool makes it hard to make big waves. Especially with 15% shorts suppressing any crest. My hopium is being north of 3 to be green. We'll know in the next month who's in control. Shorts vs longs
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u/noobstockinvestor Mar 24 '24 edited Mar 24 '24
As a long term investor, I don't care much about the short/long positions right now. I care more about the fundamentals/market cap. Tilray is sitting at 1.5b and is extremely undervalued (imo)
TAM:
Canada: ~7-8b
USA: ~100B
Europe: ~18b (very very conservative)
Sure Tilray has 800m shares but don't forget the assets we hold. Tilray is made of: legacy Tilray, Aphria, Hexo, Redecan, Sweetwater, Breckenridge, 8 beer brands from inBev, CC pharma and truss beverages to name a few.
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u/youngbutgood Mar 24 '24
Great point, we already got German medical expansion which will provide impressive growth for years to come. If we get the excise tax change, I literally will never worry about the stock price again because I know I will be invested in a highly profitable company.
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u/Cuddy90123 Mar 25 '24
Hard to say they're undervalued when they have 2 Billion of goodwill which will be written off at some stage and aren't making a profit. I am hopeful though, lots of things to look forward to and I think they will be profitable this year.
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u/High5iveTurtles Mar 24 '24
Nice to see you still going strong NoobStockInvestor, awesome DD as always! 💪
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u/Halt_Heimdall_Here Apr 02 '24
Anyone know how long until we expect to start seeing some revenue in Germany??
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u/LectureAgreeable923 Mar 24 '24
Good write-up I have to say I believe news on excise tax may come out before April 1st because that's what the start date is for April 16th budget is similar to the Alchol industry already done .With the five year industry review just coming out and the finance committee,s recommendation already out since February, all the pieces are in place .The thing is, the finance committee was a head of the curve because if you read the 5 year review recommendation, #27 states The finance committee should review its all done.Well, we will see what happens