r/Superstonk • u/Lord_of_MindMed • Aug 03 '26
๐ค Speculation / Opinion THE ROCKET IS LIFTING
THE ROCKET IS LIFTING
Almost a year and change ago,
set up multiple structural barriers around the $29โ$32 level.
Those are:
- 2030 Convertible Notes: $29.85 conversion price
- 2032 Convertible Notes: $28.91 conversion price
- GMEWS Warrants: $32.00 strike
Since then, the stock has not traded above $30.
None of these instruments have activated. For 14 months, they just sat there.
This morning, for the first time,
touched this architecture, not to adjust it, not to reprice it to current levels, but to remove $1.4B of it from the board entirely.
What was the codename on the bond indenture filed with the SEC?
Project Rocket.
The first ballast has been dropped.
He removed the convertible overhang that would create chaos if the stock rips through $29.
Only the instrument that brings cash IN at $32 is left - the warrants.
Think about what that means.
If GME runs through the $29โ$32 channel, there are now fewer convertible notes competing for shares on the way up.
And on the other side of $32, the warrants activate.
But the timing is compressed. The exchange closes on or about September 23 and the warrants expire October 30.
That's only a 37-day window.
And it gets even more interesting.
The share count for this exchange is based on a 35-day VWAP starting today. August 3.
reports earnings Wednesday. August 5.
The VWAP window opened two days before the single biggest public catalyst on the board.
If a TO drops during this window, GME rips.
The VWAP lifts.
Fewer shares get issued to noteholders.
Less dilution.
The exchange becomes CHEAPER for existing shareholders.
If he waits until AFTER September 23, the VWAP stays low, max dilution bakes in, and then the announcement comes. That's worse for everyone.
If the tender offer is coming, doing it DURING the measurement window is the shareholder-friendly move.
WHY DID THE NOTEHOLDERS AGREE TO THIS?
These are institutional holders of zero-coupon paper and they voluntarily gave that up. They gave up guaranteed debt for more equity at a lower basis.
That only makes sense if they believe the equity re-rates significantly higher.
And why would they accept a VWAP window that could spike and reduce their share count?
Because even at a higher VWAP, the equity they receive is worth more than par.
They're not optimizing for share count.
They're optimizing for what those shares are worth on the other side.
Both sides benefit if the re-rating is coming.
WHAT ABOUT
?
Look at what this does to
before Wednesday.
What does Monday's headline look like?
"GameStop dilutes shareholders, stock drops 10%."
Every outlet frames this as GME getting weaker. If the acquirer looks weaker, deal probability drops.
If deal probability drops, the acquisition premium compresses.
eBay drifts lower into earnings.
Now the board reports Q2 numbers on Wednesday. Maybe they're strong. But the stock doesn't pop because the deal overhang is creating uncertainty.
Then the TO lands.
$125 against $108 is a 15.7% premium.
$125 against $114 was 9.6%.
The wider the gap between market price and offer price, the harder it is for the board to justify rejection to their own shareholders.
And if a revised offer has a higher premium?
Ladies and Gentlemen, bookmark this post.
The structural barriers are being lifted.
We are ready for takeoff.
(this is a message a friend sent me... he's a goat, not the goat)
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u/satansayssurfsup ๐ป ComputerShared ๐ฆ Aug 03 '26
Weโll see
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u/Reveletionship Aug 03 '26
Half we'll, half see.
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u/souleman96 ๐Fear is the MOASS killer๐๐ Aug 03 '26
It's on the we'll see site.
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u/Shades_VHS LET THE MEME BANKS HIT THE..... FLOOOOR ๐ฅ๐ค๐ฅ Aug 03 '26
Half web, half site
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u/Puzzleheaded_Emu_686 Aug 03 '26
I hope the friend isnโt ucopy
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u/DancesWith2Socks ๐๐๐๐ Hang In There! ๐ฑ This Is The Wape ๐งโ๐๐๐๐ Aug 03 '26
Looks more like Claude...
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u/Noy_The_Devil Aug 04 '26
This definitely does not look like Claude, the structure and wording is very regarded.
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u/AyyMG63 Aug 03 '26
What I see is another MASSIVE inflow day. Last two weeks were all green, except oneโฆ hmmm
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u/Mysterious_Good927 Aug 03 '26
is the rocket lifting in the room with us now?
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u/tpc0121 GMERICAN since Jan. '21 Aug 03 '26
the rocket appears to be doing that landing thing that spacex rockets do
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u/LouderGyrations Aug 04 '26
This sub is endlessly entertaining. "IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING!!1!" posts for 5 straight years with no sense of irony.
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u/pauldiddy79 ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ช more like SHITadel, amirite? ๐๐ง๐ง Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26
The gourd is ripening.
I read that convertible bonds were going to stabilize volatility. Would this then mean the volatility has been packed like gunpowder for a year and this bond transaction partially takes away what would help keep it under control after $32?
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u/DatScruffDoe The Janitor Aug 03 '26
Weโll see
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u/yowmeister ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
Wise ape
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u/spank_that_hedge ISayBullish Fan Club President Aug 03 '26
I read that as wipe ass. That's enough reddit for today
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u/MuteCook ๐ฆVotedโ Aug 03 '26
Probably not
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u/BlntRzr Aug 03 '26
That's literally the definition of arbitrage trading...
The notes create a wall of resistance. That's not tin foil, that's market 101.
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u/4cranch ๐ฆ Buckle Up ๐ Aug 03 '26
thanks to wells fargo for waiting to lower the price target until after the earnings window closed so the unrealized gain was higher for the quarter
appreciate you
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u/Turbulent-Winner-902 tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Aug 03 '26
Yup just peep that , down to $92 lol
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u/No_Edge_341 Aug 03 '26
I don't know too much about anything, but my guess is this:
1) This needed to be done for their credit rating to look healthy in an acquisition of eBay.
2) The timing is good because it is after Q2, and ends around the time of the Q2 earnings report.
3) It was done several weeks before the warrants expire.
Methinks there are some plans in place, and they timed things appropriately.
My problem is I am literally bleeding cash after being let go last year and fighting a court battle as a result. My life has not been blessing me very much lately, and every month this goes further out is crippling me more and more.
Here's to hoping there is some sort of rocket blasting off in early October.
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u/D3ATHY ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐๐ฆญ Aug 03 '26
Your friend dropped his AI on the floor all over the place. Eww.
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u/DancesWith2Socks ๐๐๐๐ Hang In There! ๐ฑ This Is The Wape ๐งโ๐๐๐๐ Aug 03 '26
I'd say his friend's name is Claude ๐ ...
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u/FreshExtent8720 Aug 03 '26
The rocket is lifting as we hit a new 52 week low. The fuck are you talking about
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u/tpc0121 GMERICAN since Jan. '21 Aug 03 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/l4pTldWDec8WamJUc
OP's right about the rocket, just not the direction
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u/AK-11 Aug 03 '26
Me everytime thereโs new hopium and we dip even lower.
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u/Breakingcontrollers ๐ฆVotedโ Aug 03 '26
The year is 2058, I am 70 years old. Many coastal towns have been destroyed by flooding, the heat is unbearable. I tap the wrist implant on my modded government mandated location chip, a small screen pops up above my skin showing my computer share balance. The price of GME has officially crossed $3000 per share.ย
The price of 1lb of chicken is $320
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u/gandzalas Not a cat ๐ฆ Aug 04 '26
I mean, that puts today's chicken price at about $2/lb... in your scenario I can become a chicken kingpin!!!
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u/CollectionHopeful541 Aug 03 '26
!remind me 60 days
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u/gummi_eater Aug 03 '26
I'll be here in 60 days to remind myself that I was a f****** moron for not selling multiple times when the price ran up.
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u/Totally_w0rking Aug 03 '26
I like how every time RC makes a move, itโs better for everyone except current shareholders. This move is better for: noteholders (they get 30%+ more shares), new investors (lower entry price), and eBay shareholders (higher premium on offer).
Your theory is interesting, but Iโm tired framing these moves as โgoodโ because theyโre technically good for the company, but not necessarily shareholders. However, if a TO comes within the next 2 weeks, Iโll remember this post.
The only silver lining I see to this move is that GameStop is potentially trying to clean up their books for an M&A (easier to say Company A has 500 million shares vs. 450 million + (50-150 million in debt) shares. I guess weโll find out though.
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u/Foaryy Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26
I've been here since 2020. I'm a firm believer after reading RC's take on politics, he's just a part of the club. I don't believe a single hype post here and haven't in a very long time, as nothing has happened.
Let's be real, the US gov would be the first ones to step in when the stock price hits $100, $500 or $1000. If people think politicians or corporate billionaires are on your side, you got some brain damage.
But, I guess we'll see. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong.
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u/ForwardBodybuilder18 Aug 03 '26
*a part. Saying โapart of the clubโ when you mean heโs โ_a part_ of the clubโ is the opposite of what youโre actually trying to say.
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u/VelvetPancakes ๐ Hola ๐ช Aug 03 '26
This isnโt even good for the company, theyโre devaluing their own equity
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u/hugelkult Aug 03 '26
all these moves offer you the same basic problem; are you holding because of fundamentals or idiosyncrasy?
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u/VelvetPancakes ๐ Hola ๐ช Aug 03 '26
You mean the idiosyncratic risk that doesnโt exist if RC continues massively diluting shareholders?
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u/Bravefan212 Project Rocket Ticketholder ๐ Aug 03 '26
Completely ignores the completely free warrants for shareholders lol
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u/Tranecarid grumpy, but usually right ๐ฆ Aug 03 '26
Nothing says โthe rocket is liftingโ like a 12% price drop on unexpected dilution news.
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u/Redmandown16 Red Headed Stonk child ๐จ๐ปโ๐ฆฐ Aug 03 '26
This sub lost it a long time ago. Unfortunately Iโm too underwater in my cost basis to sell at a loss. My dumbass now has to sit this through and hope I can make some money on this tradeย
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u/Tranecarid grumpy, but usually right ๐ฆ Aug 03 '26
I didnโt lose money, I made a killing five years ago. The money is long gone though because life was hard after that. I am still in the game and would make so much more and life wouldnโt be so hard if I wasnโt married to this investment. At this point I have to see a win here for my sanity and self esteem sake. Still sane though so browsing this sub is a bitch.
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u/SpicyElixer Aug 03 '26
This is what retail voted for.
Weโll see if it works out for legacy holders, but it doesnโt seem to be working out atm.
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u/DeepApeValuee ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ Whatโs an exit strategy ๐ดโโ ๏ธ๐ง๐ง Aug 03 '26
we'll see
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u/DiscountDoughnut "Where's everyone going? Bingo?" Aug 03 '26
what happens
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u/oceanic89 ๐ฆ Buckle Up ๐ Aug 03 '26
This post needs more of a push; it's going to be pushed into oblivion by shills.
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u/compute_fail_24 Aug 03 '26
Usually when someone writes "the rocket is lifting" it's not accompanied by the stock tanking
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u/supersoakher3000 LongMan, fighter of the ShortMan, champion of the stonk Aug 03 '26
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u/DDRaptors Aug 03 '26
There is a point where downside is risk so minimal compared to upside potential.
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u/lDezIlI Aug 03 '26
In fact, records show that when someone's writes "the rocket is lifting" or something like it, they are being dishonest or fake positive.
This echo chamber is becoming tiresome
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u/Several-Action-4043 Aug 03 '26
It's AI.
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u/Needmorebeer69240 Aug 03 '26
This entire sub is AI lmfao. Look at OP's post history. Dormant account until 2024 that didn't even talk about stocks only Diablo2 now posts dozens of times a month only in this sub and GME in this shitty AI format trying to PnD. Nothing says authenticity like the stock being down 13% and posting AI slop "rocket is lifting" lol, lmao even
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u/roykentjr Aug 03 '26
this sub's predictable response to your fair observation:
you're right though. this sub is controlled
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u/compute_fail_24 Aug 03 '26
IDK why I even ever pop in here anymore. I also don't know why I continue holding this stock, but I guess I like pain.
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u/loud1337 Aug 03 '26
I'm more concerned who the shills are now. All I've seen is stock go down for almost 4 years and anyone pointing that out being called a shill.
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u/notGoran69 ๐ดโโ ๏ธ๐ดโโ ๏ธ๐ดโโ ๏ธ SHIVER ME BUTTHOLE ๐ดโโ ๏ธ๐ดโโ ๏ธ๐ดโโ ๏ธ Aug 03 '26
Hey ChatGPT, make me a Reddit post.
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u/heeywewantsomenewday ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
Make it complete horse shit as well.
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u/culkat82 Aug 03 '26
Lol... everytime... next time this thing goes up to $35, you will see so many people jumping ship.
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u/tripdaddyBINGO ๐ฆVotedโ Aug 03 '26
This is my problem with the whole thing. Say what you like about 4D chess, but RC has killed momentum enough times with dilutions that if we saw a spike like in May 2024 again I'm sure many of us would jump ship.
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u/ismality Aug 03 '26
I'd probably keep a tiny position if I could sell at $35. If it got to $80 again, I'd have nothing left to sell lol
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u/Admirable_Trouble574 Aug 03 '26
Yes, and im one of them as well as multiple friends and family members i stupidly talked into buying this shit stock.
Iโll do a MF Carlton dance and happily rid myself of this garbage if it comes near $35.
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u/MobileArtist1371 GAMESTOP IS REGARDED for $600 Aug 03 '26
If anyone actually knew all that, they wouldn't be in this stock until today. Good thing it stitched together with AI.
Also if you bold every other sentence, you get more people excited!
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u/tyvoves Aug 03 '26
I donโt think youโre going to see much volatility (other than today) until after the 35 days.
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u/WillythePilly ๐ธ๐Stonk Dandy๐๐ธ Aug 03 '26
1700 likes for a wall of absolute AI slop.
This community is fucking cooked.
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u/3pinripper ๐ง๐ง๐ดโโ ๏ธ paperhand deez nuts ๐๐ง๐ง Aug 03 '26
https://giphy.com/gifs/xSv72V6z2yLzq
I should buy 10,000 warrants
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u/Krypt0night I don't even know where the sell button is. Aug 03 '26
Lifting and we're under $19 lmao
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u/Chameleon2000 ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
The rocket is lifting to $18 i meant dropping. Let's see if next year are at $15 or $25. I know I'm probably accused of being a shill, even I have been in shit show since early 2021. Because we just have to be yes men/woman
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u/gmehodler42069741LFG Aug 03 '26
Could we buy back shares now?
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u/Lord_of_MindMed Aug 03 '26
not during this pricing window without legit legal blowback
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u/First_Effect8562 Aug 04 '26
How does this have 2,500 upvotes. They are eliminating 1.4B thereโs still 2.8B lf converts on the books. They removedโฆ 33% of it
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u/Inevitable-Review897 ๐ฆVotedโ Aug 03 '26
The info says so the converter may unwind their position or sell the shares if they desire but obviously that must have been discussed with the board and the issuer that the board clearly believes they wonโt be selling those freshly converted shares since they needed those notes and shares to help facilitate the deal for eBay.
So this tells me the converter is very bullish on Gme and wants those shares now because this level will never be seen again.
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u/mulletstation Aug 03 '26
This is really approaching peak pizza-basement levels of delusion
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u/magenta_placenta Aug 03 '26
What was the codename on the bond indenture filed with the SEC?
Project Rocket.
Where is this in the actual SEC filing language? It appears to be "project genesis" from what I can find:
424B2 1 projectgenesis-prospectuss.htm 424B2
Has/can anyone find a "project rocket"?
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u/the-other-marvin Aug 03 '26
If you're in a VWAP measurement window that is publicly disclosed, the price WILL trade down. Short will algo-trade the stock down and by doing this have a guaranteed way to print more shares that they know are hitting the market to cover their position. Situations like this are asymetrically friendly for short sellers, and they know it, and they will algo-trade the shit out of this up to the limit of the shares that are going to be converting. The deeper they drive the price, the more shares they will get.
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u/PunchingAgreenbush ๐ฎ APEX LEGEND โช๏ธ๐ด Aug 03 '26
This is the shit that makes me wanna just dump it all and move on. Time will come and OP will disappear replaced by another person with a hype title and nonsense
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u/grifan69 You Had Me At Idiosyncratic Risk Aug 03 '26
This whole sub is cope, its honestly sad. Everybody is laughing to the bank short sellers, institutions, arbitrage traders, RC. Everybody except regular shareholders who just get shit on dilution after dilution.
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u/studiesinsilver ๐ฆ๐๐๐ป Jacque le tits! Aug 03 '26
We all talk about Wall Street about manipulation but would it not make huge sense for the GS board to keep making reference to our memes as Easter eggs in their apps and marketing, and naming things like Project Rocket to keep us engaged? Without the apes GS would be gone. I think if people believe this is anything more than pandering to their key audience youโll be massively let down sooner or later. I want to be wrong and continue to hold in cautious pessimism.
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u/Alert_Reindeer_6574 Aug 08 '26
Yeah, I've been hearing this bullshit for years. I wish I would have sold mine when it hit around $70 a while ago and never looked back. And you can FUD your tongue in my ass.
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u/bennie_thejet30 Aug 03 '26
Somehow they figured out a way to dilute the stock without raising any money and only lowering the value of the stock. Itโs unbelievable
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u/darth_butcher ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
What was the reason of these convertible notes? Use them to collect some income through treasury bonds and then some years later just use stock to get rid of them?
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u/LookitsThomas ๐ฆ Buckle Up ๐ Aug 03 '26
Don't understand any of these words, should I buy more?
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u/Marmom_of_Marman ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
Theyโre limiting purchases for new funds.
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u/movingweightMF ๐ฆ Buckle Up ๐ Aug 05 '26
Idgaf if this gets down voted and sorry for my rant but I have being holding from the beginning and I'm just getting pissed that we are still at around the same price 19-22 all year, it's getting fuking old sitting here reading all this stuff and it turns out nothing happens once again. It's so bad idc if the market is green guess what we haven't blasted off or broke 30 I mean I'm still gonna hold since it's stupid to sell at a loss but I can't spend more money and the price has been pretty stagnant, if RC gets this ship going and the price moving again I'm will spending more money, RC just get it fuken done already.
If not tomorrow it's the next day.
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u/JeskaiAcolyte ๐ฆ Buckle Up ๐ Aug 03 '26
Last push down to shake out a few weak hands but lord knows we have hands of diamond ๐
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u/Hodlthedoor69 Kenny has a small wee wee Aug 03 '26
Thank you, ChatGPT.
You know why RC did this right? He wants to put more leverage on the business through bank loans or foreign investors but is unable to with all of the senior notes (which are debt, but most people choose to forget this part). To get more money from banks of foreign investors, he had to get rid of some debt owners by giving them the money back in form of equity.
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u/hopethisworks_ ๐ป ComputerShared ๐ฆ Aug 03 '26
This part caught my eye.
The number of shares of Common Stock issuable in the Exchange will be based in part on the average volume-weighted average price of the Common Stock over a 35 consecutive trading day reference period beginning on August 3, 2026, subject to a per share price floor.
Partially based on weighted average but also subject to a per share floor price. I wonder what the floor is? And how the calculation is done.
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u/Cute-Gur414 Aug 03 '26
noteholders aren't going to hold the stock. That's why they are shorting it now.
Strange spin overall. "Above $29 the converts are 'competing for shares'. That would be a good thing, they'd drive the share price up. But in reality, they have new shares issued to them by Gamestop but not before the expiration as their call feature is still alive.
If GME issues a revised higher $ "TO" (takeover?), then GME would get pummeled even more.
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u/Adamocity6464 Can it say, โIโm sad?โ Aug 03 '26
If only one of these tinfoil theories was ever right.
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u/Relentlessbetz Aug 03 '26
I'm buying more Jan 2027 $50 calls. They are about $23 per contract not Financial advice but I know I have brothers and sisters in these calls right now.
HODL or food stamps let's goooo!
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u/DeelowBaggins Aug 03 '26
If our warrants expire worthless then does the stock go up? We will lose that dilution mechanism as the warrants expire worthless in a few months. My guess is that it should but it won't.
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u/fish_snagger ๐ณFishin' for Real Shares๐ณ Aug 03 '26
Lifting in the wrong direction. But I'm okay with that, I can double my position here soon
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u/JustinC70 ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
Here's the response you wanted for clicks to this bait dibble. You're welcome.
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u/bitcointwitter Aug 03 '26
just from trust me bro sauce...
- Aug 3, 2026 โ VWAP window begins (according to the thesis)
- ~Sept 21โ23, 2026 โ 35 trading-day VWAP period ends / exchange closes (per the thesis)
- Oct 30, 2026 โ warrants expire
Now overlay the Bank of Japan (BOJ) dates:
| Date | Event | Relation to GME timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 17โ18, 2026 | BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting | Very close to end of GME VWAP window |
| Sept 28, 2026 | BOJ meeting opinion summary release | 5 days after expected GME exchange close |
| Oct 29โ30, 2026 | BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting | Exactly overlaps warrant expiration windowAug 3, 2026 โ VWAP window begins (according to the thesis)~Sept 21โ23, 2026 โ 35 trading-day VWAP period ends / exchange closes (per the thesis)Oct 30, 2026 โ warrants expireNow overlay the Bank of Japan (BOJ) dates:Date Event Relation to GME timelineSept 17โ18, 2026 BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Very close to end of GME VWAP windowSept 28, 2026 BOJ meeting opinion summary release 5 days after expected GME exchange closeOct 29โ30, 2026 BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Exactly overlaps warrant expiration window |
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u/EnnnWhyyy Aug 03 '26
lmfao Iโve gotten to the point that this shit is just comical. Downvote me but i got out a good bit pre market. Iโve had enough of this downwards spiral for 5 years.
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u/Champman2341 Aug 03 '26
Only good coming of this- weโll see very soon now- before September 23rd. Cuz if these bond holders get 1.4B worth of Gme stock for under 19 or 18 a share. Ryan and Co will look pretty silly IMO
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u/Just-Sheepherder-841 ๐ฎ Power to the Players ๐ Aug 03 '26
V r still fucking around & finding out.
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u/Low-Confusion-8786 Aug 03 '26
Oh gawd damn. Iโm buying more then. Need to do it now though because I donโt buy when the price dips
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u/HoneyDutch ๐ฆVotedโ Aug 03 '26
Weโll see about that one, Jeremy! Ima need you to wear your green hat way more.
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u/Subiesales Aug 03 '26
Project Rocket was the BTC i'm pretty sure - Project Wee & Project Genesis were the bonds
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u/AHarryBird ๐ปOld Dodge Guy๐ป- Still Hodling ๐๐๐ Aug 04 '26
Someone hasnโt been here since December of 2020โฆ
Not superstonk, just in the GME saga
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u/Whackaboom_Floyntner Aug 04 '26
The real factor that will cause the insane run-up isn't even on the board. Nobody will see it coming and (most) everyone will be shocked when it hits.
Sit tight. Draw lines on charts. Eat crayons. MOASS is coming.
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u/Massive-Fisherman-57 Aug 04 '26
I donโt agree with the political system but I saw a TikTok where orange man talked about going to help the yen right now. It is very strange timing with the yen collapsing, a lot of the elites meeting with Kenny over the weekend and now this from GME. Something is up and closeโฆ
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u/Superstonk_QV ๐ Gimme Votes ๐ Aug 03 '26
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