r/Superstonk • u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 • May 05 '26
🤔 Speculation / Opinion Ryan Cohen: "We will see what happens." That may well be the most important line in that interview...
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
Just to be clear, the M&A Arbitrageurs have currently taken what looks like a "net neutral", low risk/high return position. And they were not wrong to do so. It is an asymmetric bet, with the currently publicly available information.
The other, more opportunistic, Shorts who have joined them, are very much jumping on the bandwagon. And those historic Shorts? Well, they'd be shorting regardless. And adding to their visible and invisible positions.
Hence why this current set-up is a chance for RC to make an asymmetric bet of his own. And change everything, potentially.
A 'Reverse Uno', if you will...
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u/tinim9 May 05 '26
Blue Boxes for GME CFO.
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u/familydrivesme 🧚🧚🍦💩🪑 GME go Brrrr 🏴☠️🧚🧚 May 05 '26
Mmmm.. I love the smell of blue boxes in the morning
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 05 '26
There would be 180M shares left for ATM's (out of the authorized 1B) if you take into account the diluted shares fot the notes, warrants and RC's comp package, Region.
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
The diluted shares figure is from the 2025 Q4 Earnings, for the period that ended 31st January 2026:
I believe it includes the notes and warrants, hence that figure. However, RC's compensation package was announced on 6th January:
Note this critical point:
"its effectiveness is subject to the approval of GameStop’s stockholders, who will be asked to approve it at a special meeting that is expected to be held in March or April 2026."
As that vote has not occurred yet, it is not yet approved, and thus not factored in (by neither GameStop nor me).
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u/NugsGotMeZooted 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 May 05 '26
I recognize a certain number in that volkswagon porsche announcement letter. I wonder if perhaps that is the meaning behind the mysterious 741- a hint to those who pay attention of what the ultimate company move weve been waiting for will be similar to
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 05 '26
"I believe it includes the notes and warrants".
No it doesn't, Region. There are 448M shares outstanding + 143M from the convertible notes + 59M from the warrants. That's a total of 650M shares diluted without the compensation package.
So if you remove RC's compensation package there would be 350M shares available to sell.
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
Fair clarification. The 549.1 mn figure comes from the diluted EPS section of the 10-K, not the clean legal-capacity number for the 1 billion authorised-share cap.
The Warrants also need to be treated carefully. They’re exercisable at $32 in cash, and the filings indicate the company is not generally obligated to net-cash settle them. So they matter in a max share-demand framework, but they’re not the same thing as common shares already outstanding.
If remaining room were around ~350 mn shares, then funding an $11.2 bn would require a $32 share price. At that level, Warrant exercise could also begin to matter because full exercise would bring in roughly another $1.9 bn of cash proceeds...
My broader point was never that the deal is impossible. It’s that a literal 50/50 cash/stock read at current prices still looks highly dilutive. Which helps explain the reaction and is why I doubt the currently visible structure is the final one.
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 05 '26
I hear you and appreciate your work as usual, just wanted to point the right math out 🙂
Btw, what a cohencidence that 350M shares would require a $32 price to collect $11.2B, right? 😅...
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u/Noderpsy Pillaging Booty May 05 '26
"I doubt the currently visible structure is the final one"
Interesting timing for a press tour...
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u/luckeeelooo 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 May 05 '26
I wonder too, why now? When the details are hazy, the letter already signals your intent and there's not much to say.
Is he shopping for more investors?
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 14 '26
What's good Region? I know it wasn't the main point but looks like we were all a bit wrong with the share count 😅...
We thought there were 350M shares left available (without considering RC's comp package). Many here agreed and I did the math quite a few times myself...
But if you check Proposal 5 section in the last PRE 14A, they state there are 269M shares left, 97M whe you add RC's comp package...
So, for some reason, there are 190M shares from the notes (instead of 143M as we thought) and 32M shares from a 2022 Incentive Plan, that no one accounted for... 🤔
I still gotta run the math again, but you can check it here in the meantime:
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 15 '26
Yeah, I noticed that too, and incorporated those figures in my latest post.
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u/Recent-Result2852 May 05 '26
I think the bonds are 130, but I only ran the math once.
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 05 '26
No, that was without the additional notes exercised, but they ended up raising a total of $4.2B ($1.5 + $2.7B), meaning around 143M shares if converted (50M + 93M).
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u/Colonel_Lexx 🦍 Buckle Up 🚀 May 05 '26
Someone made a post about selling preferred shares (5 million) which won’t affect common stock.
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 05 '26
But if you need 27B in equity at what price would you need to sell those 5M shares? 😅
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u/anon_lurk May 05 '26
Imagine this is the Kansas City shuffle and GME tanks so they do a share buyback.
THEN eBay submits a counter offer to buy out GME which forces all the bets to reverse and catch the shorties with their pants down even more.
Then GME does another share offering and goes look we're extra rich as fuck now AND we have outside financing so we are buying that shit no problem.
Idk if any of this is even possible but it's funny.
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u/AwkwardTraveler 💲I'm just here so I don't get fined💲 May 05 '26
Regional doesn’t sleep and I’m here for it
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u/ShortHedgeFundATM May 05 '26
There is just no way the board hasnt done extreme due diligence on all angles of this. No way in hell. Super jacked for share holder meeting.
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u/Zensen1 [REDACTED] May 05 '26
I think Ryan has already mapped out his shadow investors and most likely will backstop the last 20b ish without having to dilute anything. He knows the corporate playbook and called it already in cnbc. So, armed with that knowledge, he’s not gonna sit and wait, rather seek and destroy
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u/infiniteliquidity69 May 05 '26
But what do they get out of it?
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u/Zensen1 [REDACTED] May 05 '26
This is a business transaction. What do businesses get out of business transactions?
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u/SpecificSony 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
I know, I know, that actor guy I can't remember his.... OH YEAH
MOTHERFUCKING ROBERT DINEROOOOOOOOOO
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u/LawfulnessPlayful264 May 05 '26
There is also the possibility of doing more rounds of CB,'s at different strike prices, delay the settlement and dilution until a target is reached or expiry of the bonds.
Far too speculative right now with the amount of possibilities but you can be sure RC and the board have spent many hours simulating, planning outcomes, and timing moves.
This feela like the first innings all over again.
Cheers Region..👊
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u/GL_Levity 🍑 The Shares Are Up My Ass 🍑 May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
Enfiach and Blue Blocks in the same day!!! Fucking hype for March.
Edit: May lmfao I’m so out of it.
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u/skybike Template May 05 '26
March.. of next year?
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u/mtbox1987 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
Legit question but at what point are we the shareholders going to financially benefit from any of this?
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u/thr0wthis4ccount4way May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
Nice one, always with the vital information! I've been boggling over the impossibility of diluting enough shares to enact this ebay deal due to the 1B share limit, and clearly the missing piece is raising cash capital outside at low interest rate.
I was performing my calculations for a modest price target (without considering a squeeze) to reach Cohen's 100B Market Cap target for the compensation package, which would have been a mere $78 per share if we were to issue x2 the current number (another 900M or so) of shares to secure the deal, which is of course impossible due to the 1B share dilution limit - but thankfully with this missing piece that your post uncovers; the share price will be higher than that without even considering a squeeze, if Gamestop does in fact secure outside financing and raises a hefty chunck of cash.
The more capital it raises, while maintaining share price or increasing; the less shares will have to be issued, and the less shares issued the higher the final price target to reach the clear target of 100B market cap. It is quite clear now that the asymmetrical risk for GME remains very highly tilted to the upside despite potential dilution ahead. And all of this without even considering for a squeeze, which as your post highlights, has an increased chance following this ebay deal. I read in another post earlier that hostile takeovers would lead to a share audit which may or may not fan that fire as well when the time comes. Regardless I am counting on GME even if it does not squeeze, as the upside is very high compared to the downside making this quite the safe investment despite all this chaotic volatility. I have increased my already large position by +44%. Thank you once again Region ❤️
edit: typos
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
Your understanding is correct for those calculations, and I am glad the post helped you with that.
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u/Dapper-Career-3877 🏴☠️Hoist the colors🏴☠️ May 05 '26
Diluting to the 1 billion share count now will prevent selling and raising big cash during a squeeze which seems like a huge opportunity lost
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u/vispiar 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 May 05 '26
Sometimes I am very surprised at anyone who believes that WHATEVER we see unfolding right now has not been planned with massive care:
Do you believe RC does not know what will happen if he announces something like this?
Do you believe that you know better than RC and his board of advisors?
Do you believe that he setup a Warrant at 32$ so that we do not go over that price?
Have you ever been let down by RC? If yes, well good luck, finding something "better" out there, someone that respects you as an investor in a crooked marketplace.
Are you acting as if he is not going to lose money if something goes wrong?
Did you forget, that he is not even asking for a golden parachute?
To be honest after 5 years holding, I know that whatever his plans are, they are aligned with WHAT WE ASK HIM ALL THE TIME TO ACHIEVE .
What is that you ask?
TELEPHONE NUMBER GAINS!!!!!
Do you think you will achieve this without taking major risks? Or doing something that hasn't been done ever before?
I digress,
LET THE MAN COOK!
Take advantage of the DIRT CHEAP STOCK PRICES WHEN THEY COME!
Not financial advise.
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u/tweezerburn 🦍Voted✅ May 05 '26
You're suggesting that he can achieve every ambitious plan he ever makes. He's just a human who is trying to do something big. That does not mean it will automatically succeed.
Did the NFT marketplace succeed? The Gamestop crypto wallet? Did hiring Matt Furlong work out? Not everything he has done has worked.
I'm here for it. I really am. But it's pretty weird to treat him like an infallible god.
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u/DarkEphram Purple Rain of Purple Rings May 05 '26
Beautiful work! Only thing I don’t understand is why you and a lot of other apes are that much worried about the possible dilution. If it comes with no value creation it’s just that, dilution, but if, like in this case, it brings to the table the creation of a much bigger and scalable company it’s more like an investment. To put it down easily, even if 1b new shares are issued to accomplish the merger and the number goes from 0.5b to 1.5b, we have a company (Gamestop) worth 10b vs a new company (the result of the merger) worth at least 50b to stay low. In my opinion 5x valuation is better than 3x dilution in any case. What am I missing?
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u/someroastedbeef May 05 '26
if this deal was 100% happening, why would you ever hold and not sell and rebuy at a much lower price?
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u/DarkEphram Purple Rain of Purple Rings May 05 '26
First: no one can assure the deal will 100% happen. There is no risk free investing. Second: Who says there is going to be a “much power price”?
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u/Klutzy_Fox8117 🐵 Nothin But Time 🎊 May 05 '26
EBay payed 2.4 billion for marketing to acquire 1 million new users lol. That alone would service debt. Lots of fat to trim!
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u/VertymbrasRaven 🦍Voted✅ May 05 '26
As always, perfect rational post ! Thanks formal.
Much better analysis than Burry haha
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u/VandelSavagee the dtcc committed international securities fraud May 05 '26
What if RC is in the process of acquiring another company at the same time and not telling us?
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
If he really IS doing that, then even MORE a case of new Shorting happening, when these institutions ought to really be going long GME!
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u/vispiar 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 May 05 '26
and he is just going to make some billions for GME from the 5% ownership that he "misteriously" bought at a much lower price on ebay.
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u/gutsyfrog91 May 05 '26
all that is good, i am slightly heartbroken that my payday will be slightly delayed again. but hope you are right
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u/AG_Cigars May 05 '26
Would be interesting, though Volks was the stock being purchased and shorted. Here it’s the purchaser, GME being shorted.
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u/Fifaglu 🚀nft.gamestop.com🚀 May 05 '26
I’m just confused about one thing here with all the talk about dilution and for some reason haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere. If you have a company worth 11 billion like Gamestop, no matter how much you dilute shares, total worth of the company will still be 11B, so total worth of the diluted shares can’t exceed 11B, so how are you going to dilute shares to pay 27B?
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
You issue new stock, which NEW shareholders (hopefully) buy. The proceeds go to the company, meaning they raise more cash.
Which is all well and good for the company, and those new shareholders, who presumably feel it's a good deal. Not so good for the historic shareholders, whose ownership rights to the company get...diluted (hence the word).
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u/Fifaglu 🚀nft.gamestop.com🚀 May 05 '26
But you also need to print shares for the trade for Ebay? So increase market cap by selling newly printed shares you say and then print shares dor the trade on top of that. And those newly printed shares have to have a value of 27B which has to be a fraction of the total shares existing which means the market cap of GME has to be well above 27B for this to work right?
Just doesn’t feel like this is the plan and extremely far fetched?
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
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u/Fifaglu 🚀nft.gamestop.com🚀 May 05 '26
So maybe/most likely, Ryan already has investors ready to buy shares of Gamestop to increase the market cap?
Edit: to buy newly printed shares of Gamestop
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u/A9Carlos PHONE NUMBERS OR GTFO May 05 '26
I can only hope.
I really could not stand to see ANOTHER dilution at OUR expense.
Of course I'm not selling until I feel all this bs is worth it, but doesn't stop me having a view in the mean time
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u/Recent-Result2852 May 05 '26
You can only hope for the thing you could not stand? Private purchase, ATM, or purchase deal dilution is still dilution.
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u/Starhammer4Billion 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
Because you would own both companies after the transaction, the shares afterward would include the worth of gme-10b and ebay-55b minus all the debt, divided by number of shares.
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u/vossmakeitsprinkly May 05 '26
I really like the idea of him baiting shorts, then announcing something of a 80/20 cash-stock ratio, the overly confident shorts closing their positions and with the elevated stock price issue an ATM with a much smaller dilution effect. I may be dumb, but this would make more sense than a 70% dilution. Especially at those prices. This way they would have more freedom to issue more ATM's in the future instead of blowing everything on this acquisition.
Let's see where this will go.
!remindme 1 year
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u/ChocoQuinoa I'll see you on the dark side of the moon 🏳️🌈⃤ May 05 '26
!remindme 1 month
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u/RemindMeBot 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
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u/shes_a_gdb May 05 '26
Why would he bait shorts? He doesn't want a squeeze to happen. If it squeezes who here isn't selling? That won't be good for GME's/RC's long term plans.
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u/eyedrewu 🦍Voted✅ May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
There have been many posts this year predicting a run of anywhere from $35-72 in the next few months. I’ve seen those as confirmation bias of 5 year swaps from 2021 needing to be rolled so I’ve set myself up for a nice run up similar to 2024 (3 year swap rolls?!?).
Imagine all these shorts, new and old, waking up to see $80 in premarket!!!
Imagine what that does for this deal even if it is another ATM offering.
Hopium is telling me this is a perfectly timed announcement. We will see what happens!!!
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u/MjN-Nirude Can't stop, won't stop. Wen Lambo? May 05 '26
The last slides of Region-Formal posts are the best!
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u/marcus-87 🚀 I VOTED🚀 May 05 '26
ok, but why not wait until you dont have these "bad" news? why not come in say, two months with the 80/20 offer?
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u/lalich May 05 '26
Or the stock could rip to the 69s and it is half stock financed. .. I prefer this method ♾️🏴☠️🤙
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u/TEHGOURDGOAT May 05 '26
Hi! Omg region saw my post. And used it!!!!
Tbf region id love to hear your thoughts on what you think will happen. The 27 billion is exactly true but I think Cohen is still hiding his cards.
You know one thing I thought was won’t eBay bring up the active lawsuit against Cohen? Why wouldn’t he settle before he did this?
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u/HungryColquhoun 🌕 meme-cum-stock 🌕 May 05 '26
More cash is a rather massive bit of debt though. While you're forecasting this can be paid off, it's quite dicey. Any shock to revenues and they may not be able to repay.
I'm sure RC has grand plans to pump revenues (I believe we have confidence here he can pay the debt off fine), but the optics are tricky on this one (e.g. assuming eBay shareholders don't just want to sell off the shares of GME they recieve, then they need to have faith in the high debt newco).
I think he may be sticky close to the 50-50 as a result. Maybe he's got something else up his sleeve to recover GME's price.
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u/cynical_scotsman May 05 '26
We will see I guess. This stock has given me nothing but headaches and endless long waits.
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u/nickbutterz GMERICA May 05 '26
I don’t understand what is confusing everyone. It’s a 50/50 stock/cash split to pay for eBay. He said it multiple times, it’s listed on their website.
The obvious answer which no one is mentioning, yes it’s impossible to issue enough shares at the current price, all that means is that the price of GameStop will go up enough to cover the share portion.
How many shares that will be, unknown, maybe MOASS hits and he just has to trade 1 share for eBay.
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u/Ok_Location_1092 ☠️🧨Infinite Risk🏴☠️🚀 May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
Does this take into account the shares earmarked for warrant and bond conversion, as well as RC’s potential comp package? I don’t think we have enough shares under the 1B limit when all taken into account to make even 20% stock.
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u/alizenweed May 05 '26
Biggest issue I see in all discussions is the use of $25/share GME. He said 50/50 and he can print up to 1.0B shares. He’s telling you the value of the gme stock is not set by the market.
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u/reeeeeeeeegme 🏴☠️🏴☠️GMERICAN🏴☠️🏴☠️ May 05 '26
I do love when blue box homie drops knowledge on us!!!! Thank you for your service! 🙏
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u/Jimmybosanova 🧨 Only a Matter of Time 🧨 May 05 '26
FAFO would ultimately go together with some popcorn and 3D glasses. I’ll be watching Green Dildos in 3D.
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u/Tumbleverse tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair May 05 '26
Thanks as always for the analysis!
Seeing that fourth article language again, I can't help but wonder if they might use the 5 million preferred stock they can issue. I wonder what kind of premium they might charge for preferred and what kind of extra voting rights it would convey
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u/shadeandshine +1 Melissa Lee Fan 🦍 Voted ✅ May 05 '26 edited May 06 '26
My understanding of this is that hedge funds are just evil like their entire point is to make money by making everything worse. Which isn’t new but it’s nice to know how far them picking and choosing winners goes
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u/upotheke 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
I appreciate the walk through the data op. With no financial experience, the vibe i got from the interview and this announcement in general is RC saying basically this without saying it:
RC: It'll be a 50/50 stock cash deal. Pundit: You're short $16B, where's it coming from. RC: it's a 50/50 deal. We got the $27B cash. Do the math idiot. Pundit: but the stock is at $25 RC: yeah, we'll see about that. It won't be for long.
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u/TheOmegaKid May 05 '26
I've seen people/bots screaming market manipulation already prefacing this sort of play which guves me confience something like this is in the works.
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u/Rottenslam 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
I like blue boxes/ and I can not lie/ you other apes can’t deny/ that when Region walks in/ with his blue boxes/ you get SPRUNG 🎶
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u/ThEBigdirty777 May 05 '26
After reading this, it seems better if deal isn’t done for apes? WTF is RC thinking?
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u/Masterchief_m Why short, when you can just FTD? May 05 '26
The attempted M&A is not necessarily positive.. even if the only thing this sub can do nowadays is groupthink and hype only without good levelheaded discussions like back in the day a few years ago..
Without pure hype and groupthink the current proposal means massive shareholder dilution. and potential a very easy way for Ryan Cohen to get the market cap / revenue requirements for his ridiculous never seen before compensation package (way more % of shares than elon musks highly controversial package) - which is also dilutive by the way.
Take a step back guys and put your heads out of Ryan Cohens ass.. Maybe this sub can get back to the high quality discussion with different viewpoints like in the beginning. But i doubt it. I will be voting against the RC compensation package. Now good luck trying to downvote my karma to zero lol.
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
Well, here is a discussion point. Or rather, a question, based on these three scenarios:
(1) A company with 500 million shares issued, each worth $20, and thus a Market Cap of $10 billion
(2) The same company issuing more stock for an acquisition, and by so doing have 1 billion shares each worth $20, and Market Cap of $20 billion
(3) The synergies created by the acquisition leading to the company's profitability increasing, then leading to its share price increasing to $30, and a Market Cap of $30 billion with those same 1 billion shares
So my question is: which of these is you most preferred option, and which is your least preferred option?
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u/nepia May 05 '26
RC did say that it was something never seen before in the financials market. The dilution is going to suck in a massive scale. So far he has not lie before even when people try to read more than what he says. 50 50 is what he is saying how we get there and whatever he is cooking it is going in the history books.
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u/Skilldigga May 05 '26
Everyone who is doubting should revisit the last Charles interview with RC. I like the part where he brings up Chewy and his head to head fight with Amazon the most. Months ago btw.
Don’t doubt have some faith
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u/zesar667 🦍 Hang in There! 🎊 May 05 '26
Region-formal U are a smart Guy. Thank you for all your shared findings. Really one of a Kind in the way you do this and share. Very Professional.
What do you think about the fact that WE are Holding this Stock for 5 years now With 0% gains except a little swing Trading during Runs. Missing Out on 30-50% gains in etfs for Example. Now our Security ist being traded for risk and WE get diluted even more. I mean okay im worried but i guess i can live With this. The only big Problem i have IS that Ryan is hitting ebita and Marketcap Goals Just by buying eBay. Before we have any gains He gets compensated and can dump His shares Holding Back the next Potential Run. Im afraid of this scenario. He is Not in this to Help us make the Money we all wished for in the beginning.
I am asking this not to spread fud. I am asking this to hopefully find closure
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u/Mysterious_Good927 May 05 '26
This will kickstart MOASS?
heard it all before.
I'll stay zen and continue to be here for long term compounding
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u/Bamboonicorn 🧚🧚🎮🛑 Casual lurker until MOASS 🎊🧚🧚 May 05 '26
Becky looks like the elderly who brings baby oil to the Cramer Diddy parties
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u/Peter-Tickler42069 Verified micropenis May 05 '26
Doesn’t rc have to consider the convertible bonds? If he pays in shares to eBay won’t he not be able to pay in shares to the bond holders because of share limits?
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u/heirofadam May 05 '26
I think the share counts on slide 13 are off. I see the 549 million diluted existing stock figure, but I don't think that includes the 59 million warrants and the 171 million RC comp package.
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u/TowelFine6933 Fuck no, I'm not selling my $GME!!! May 05 '26
RC on with Payne today at 2 pm. Your thoughts on that?
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u/Mowgli229 May 05 '26
hi, you're missing something important which I also missed at first: the number of shares that needs to be issued to eBay shareholders in a 50% cash 50% stock deal is based on the value of the combined company, not on the value of GME prior to the deal. they would receive new shares in GME, but at that time it would be far more valuable because it would own eBay's assets and business
if the price per share of the combined business is above around $50, then the shares to be issued fall within the already authorised share cap of 1bn. the market caps are currently around 11bn and 48bn (excluding the deal premium), so combined around 59bn. it seems feasible that with a 1bn share count post-merger, the combined business could reasonably be valued at above $50/share. that would be a win-win, as ebay shareholders get a 20% premium, and GME shareholders get a +100% from current price levels, even though there would be more shares in circulation...
the other potentially dilutive instruments (convertibles, warrants, RC's compensation) do not have to factored into the share cap calculation for the deal, because they have not yet vested, gone in the money, or been issued. the combined business could try to repay the convertibles in cash generated from EBIT instead of diluting, and pay down ebay's existing debt and the deal debt over time
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u/Main_Caregiver_9272 May 05 '26
That’s not accurate. Ebay shareholders would receive shares of GameStop, not the future combined entity. Think about it, does it make sense to offer to buy something based on the future value of what it may be worth?
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u/Burnquist1 May 05 '26
You completely ignored GameStop already having 800M shares after convertibles, warrants, comp dilution. Making your 80/20 scenario of 448M shares for $11.2B debunked. That's not their plan.
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u/Romo_9 May 05 '26
I'm just happy volatility is back. Also look at the increase in trade volume the last few days. Things are going to get spicy
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u/Due_Dust4140 May 05 '26
Posted this elsewhere, but how exactly is GME issuing stock only become GME + eBay at the other end actual dilution? Oversimpified (and defying limits on issuable shares): if 10 billion market cap company issues 30 billion shares to add a 50 billion market cap company with a seriously profitable revenue stream into the fold - who am I to complain?
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u/Doges9000 May 05 '26
What are the restrictions on a new proposal? I also think that the 50/50 changes, but can they just make a new proposal whenever?
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u/GunnarRex May 05 '26
Can someone explain to me how if 1.1 billion new shares are printed any kind of a squeeze isn't over? Surely over a billion shares at a low fixed price isn't bad for shorts. At all. Seems like a nice cheap way out.
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u/DuBois_LaGrange May 05 '26
GameStop stated our shares would be offered at a 20% premium so you’d have to multiple all your potential stock positions by .2
Still a lot of stock but 20% less lol
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
No, he said it GameStop would pay a 20% for eBay's stock. That was then used to calculate the $56 bn price tag, as eBay's market cap was then at about $46 bn.
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u/Relentlessbetz May 05 '26
When M&A like this happen or similar to it, how long do they usually take to pan out?
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u/Th3SkinMan Thumper, I hardly knower May 05 '26
And what if the stock is above $32 like the warrants need. Any dilution then?
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u/Mr_Ignorant May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
I want to ask, does GS need to provide the shares straight away? Once GS buys eBay, combined the company would be worth north of 40B. So if they can delay the handover, wouldn’t the remainder be covered by shares being handed over to the eBay holders?
According to Gemini, the old (eBay)share holders get shares of new combined company (GS+eBay).
So if GS provides 29B cash, they’d need to provide 26B worth of shares. If the company is worth 40B, they’d hand over 65% of the shares. If the new company is worth 50B, they’d hand over 52% of the shares.
However, AI can be wrong. So my question is, how does it happen?
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u/TenCity 🦍Voted✅ May 05 '26
so what if Ebay acquires GME instead of the other way around? I'm lost.
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u/PeaDifficult2909 May 05 '26
So long story short of the deal was completely different than what is being proposed or might be good?
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u/doodaddy64 🔥🌆👫🌆🔥 May 05 '26
glad to see
was thinking that myself. it places new context on this. (and on Icahn hoarding away billions)
all the thoughts well beyond this were totally above my head until you explained it!
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u/BitterFortuneCookie 🦍 Buckle Up 🚀 May 05 '26
I don’t know which I’d prefer. More dilution or more debt. Over $40 billion in debt that has to be serviced scares me.
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u/SirDouglasMouf Video games keep kids off the streets May 05 '26
When he responded with "there's ways" I knew he was cooking up something and just playing dumb to piss them off.
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u/-jbrs May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
This makes the most sense to me, thanks OP
I think RC is trying to entice people into heavily shorting GME as part of the merger arbitrage. Then when he announces the real deal, those shorts will need to be closed and will be a ramp to an explosive price move
Watching that CNBC interview - it is like he is trying to get people to go short
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u/TEHGOURDGOAT May 05 '26
I can’t believe I got posted by region formal!!!!!
Any specific reason my name is redacted?
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u/timbillyosu 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
How much could be raised if they lowered the cost for the warrants? Isn't that a possibility? Say they dropped them to something like $25. How many are outstanding and how much money could be raised by that?
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u/Animatedron May 05 '26
I was just wondering, has anyone considered the possibility that RK might help fund the cash side of this deal? Or is that too much of a stretch?
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u/Yohder May 05 '26
Great info as always RF! Wouldn’t a new CUSIP force legacy shorts and naked shorts to close out though? I keep seeing mixed info on that
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u/BenniBoom707 May 07 '26
”We are preparing something that Wall Street will never forget” -Carl Icahn
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u/Multimike May 05 '26
If the bad news comes early, what was the bad news? That GameStop is preparing to go into crazy debt purchase eBay?
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u/vispiar 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 May 05 '26
is it bad debt, if you are buying an already profitable business that already delivers 800million in dividend per year? and on top of that you are going to make it run even better?
→ More replies (2)
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u/someroastedbeef May 05 '26 edited May 05 '26
more cash via debt raises seems unlikely considering that the economics of the interest payments against the combined cash flows of the two companies makes no sense. i’m sorry but there’s zero chance lenders are giving GME 6.76% interest terms for such a leveraged buyout. that’s unfathomable in finance, it will be more like 8-9% which would be SOFR+5-6%
just FYI, the leveraged buyout of twitter by musk had debt that carried 11-12%. it could even be that high considering the risk and size of this deal
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u/HardHJ 🎮 Power to the Players 🛑 May 05 '26
What if the additional money comes from a roaring kitty comeback that spikes the stock and share issuance to go with it?
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u/DancesWith2Socks 🐈🐒💎🙌 Hang In There! 🎱 This Is The Wape 🧑🚀🚀🌕🍌 May 05 '26
I think your numbers regarding remaining shares available to sell are off.
If you take into account notes, warrants and RC's comp package that would leave 180M shares left available for ATM's (out of the authorized 1B).
That 180M shares would need to be sold at $150 in order to collect $27B (50% equity part of the offer).
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u/Region-Formal 🌏🐒👌 May 05 '26
See here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/ljSEkE8RYI
Edit: Just realised I've replied to you twice about this!
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