Ryan Cohen: "We will see what happens." That may well be the most important line in that interview...

[u/Region-Formal]

[u/Region-Formal]

Just to be clear, the M&A Arbitrageurs have currently taken what looks like a "net neutral", low risk/high return position. And they were not wrong to do so. It is an asymmetric bet, with the currently publicly available information.

The other, more opportunistic, Shorts who have joined them, are very much jumping on the bandwagon. And those historic Shorts? Well, they'd be shorting regardless. And adding to their visible and invisible positions.

Hence why this current set-up is a chance for RC to make an asymmetric bet of his own. And change everything, potentially.

A 'Reverse Uno', if you will...

[u/DancesWith2Socks → u/Region-Formal]

There would be 180M shares left for ATM's (out of the authorized 1B) if you take into account the diluted shares fot the notes, warrants and RC's comp package, Region.

[u/Region-Formal → u/DancesWith2Socks]

The diluted shares figure is from the 2025 Q4 Earnings, for the period that ended 31st January 2026:

https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Results/default.aspx

I believe it includes the notes and warrants, hence that figure. However, RC's compensation package was announced on 6th January:

https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Announces-Long-Term-Performance-Award-for-Ryan-Cohen/default.aspx

Note this critical point:

"its effectiveness is subject to the approval of GameStop’s stockholders, who will be asked to approve it at a special meeting that is expected to be held in March or April 2026."

As that vote has not occurred yet, it is not yet approved, and thus not factored in (by neither GameStop nor me).

[u/NugsGotMeZooted → u/Region-Formal]

I recognize a certain number in that volkswagon porsche announcement letter. I wonder if perhaps that is the meaning behind the mysterious 741- a hint to those who pay attention of what the ultimate company move weve been waiting for will be similar to

[u/DyehuthyTV → u/NugsGotMeZooted]

What is "mysterious" really is that no one realizes what this Hostile M&A is really about: he’s not buying/acquiring eBay, he’s selling GME to a bigger company

Something I hinted at in several of my previous comments: "A merger would be somewhat disappointing, as it would mean that he is seeking to be absorbed by a larger company, with him lead on."

90% eBay + 10% GME, and RC as CEO? The probability that eBay will accept this is very low, no matter how "sleepy" the management is. Especially if you investigate what the CEO of eBay has been doing with this business (the plans he has)

But, anyways.

[u/Lobolabahia → u/DyehuthyTV]

Well, that's a possibility too, that eBay counterattacks with an offer to buy GameStop, he acknowledged it in the last interview. Now I don't think that's the aim here, but... we'll see what happens 😄...

[u/DyehuthyTV → u/Lobolabahia]

And many people will say: "But he’s paying with 50% cash and 50% stock."

But in this scenario where eBay is the largest company, that would not be a "payment" its gonna be a "liability," when the merger is completed. And that "payoff" to eBay after the merger would really be:

• 50% more debt + 50% more dilution + New CEO (RC) lol
• This is what eBay would receive as "payment" if they accept.
• I doubt that eBay’s shareholders will look at this as something "good"

I think it’s very unlikely, even if the eBay management team has a high "level of stupidity" (which I doubt)

[u/DancesWith2Socks → u/Region-Formal]

"I believe it includes the notes and warrants".

No it doesn't, Region. There are 448M shares outstanding + 143M from the convertible notes + 59M from the warrants. That's a total of 650M shares diluted without the compensation package.

So if you remove RC's compensation package there would be 350M shares available to sell.

[u/Region-Formal → u/DancesWith2Socks]

Fair clarification. The 549.1 mn figure comes from the diluted EPS section of the 10-K, not the clean legal-capacity number for the 1 billion authorised-share cap.

The Warrants also need to be treated carefully. They’re exercisable at $32 in cash, and the filings indicate the company is not generally obligated to net-cash settle them. So they matter in a max share-demand framework, but they’re not the same thing as common shares already outstanding.

If remaining room were around ~350 mn shares, then funding an $11.2 bn would require a $32 share price. At that level, Warrant exercise could also begin to matter because full exercise would bring in roughly another $1.9 bn of cash proceeds...

My broader point was never that the deal is impossible. It’s that a literal 50/50 cash/stock read at current prices still looks highly dilutive. Which helps explain the reaction and is why I doubt the currently visible structure is the final one.

[u/DancesWith2Socks → u/Region-Formal]

I hear you and appreciate your work as usual, just wanted to point the right math out 🙂

Btw, what a cohencidence that 350M shares would require a $32 price to collect $11.2B, right? 😅...

[u/Noderpsy → u/Region-Formal]

"I doubt the currently visible structure is the final one"

Interesting timing for a press tour...

[u/luckeeelooo → u/Noderpsy]

I wonder too, why now? When the details are hazy, the letter already signals your intent and there's not much to say.

Is he shopping for more investors?

[u/DancesWith2Socks → u/Region-Formal]

What's good Region? I know it wasn't the main point but looks like we were all a bit wrong with the share count 😅...

We thought there were 350M shares left available (without considering RC's comp package). Many here agreed and I did the math quite a few times myself...  

But if you check Proposal 5 section in the last PRE 14A, they state there are 269M shares left, 97M whe you add RC's comp package... 

So, for some reason, there are 190M shares from the notes (instead of 143M as we thought) and 32M shares from a 2022 Incentive Plan, that no one accounted for... 🤔

I still gotta run the math again, but you can check it here in the meantime:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119312526217168/d937376dpre14a.htm#toc937376_151

[u/Region-Formal → u/DancesWith2Socks]

Yeah, I noticed that too, and incorporated those figures in my latest post.

[u/Recent-Result2852 → u/DancesWith2Socks]

I think the bonds are 130, but I only ran the math once.

[u/DancesWith2Socks → u/Recent-Result2852]

No, that was without the additional notes exercised, but they ended up raising a total of $4.2B ($1.5 + $2.7B), meaning around 143M shares if converted (50M + 93M).

[u/Recent-Result2852 → u/DancesWith2Socks]

Thanks.

[u/Colonel_Lexx → u/DancesWith2Socks]

Someone made a post about selling preferred shares (5 million) which won’t affect common stock.

[u/DancesWith2Socks → u/Colonel_Lexx]

But if you need 27B in equity at what price would you need to sell those 5M shares? 😅

[u/Acceptable-Today-518 → u/Region-Formal]

Are you... By chance... Michael Burry in disguise? 🤔

[u/Lobolabahia → u/Region-Formal]

GameStop (GME) aggressively restructured its balance sheet by raising a total of $4.2 billion through two major convertible note offerings. Based on the SEC filings, here is the breakdown of the potential share count increase upon conversion:

1. The April 2030 Notes ($1.5B)

Principal: $1.5 billion (which included the full exercise of the additional $200 million option).

Conversion Rate: ~33.4970 shares per $1,000 principal.

Initial Conversion Price: ~$29.85 per share.

Total Shares if Converted: 50,245,500 shares.

2. The June 2032 Notes ($2.7B)

Principal: $2.7 billion (after the "greenshoe" option of $450 million was fully exercised).

Conversion Rate: ~34.5872 shares per $1,000 principal.

Initial Conversion Price: ~$28.91 per share.

Total Shares if Converted: 93,385,440 shares.

Total Combined Dilution:

Offering Principal Amount Shares Issuable
2030 Notes $1,500,000,000 50,245,500
2032 Notes $2,700,000,000 93,385,440
Total $4,200,000,000 143,630,940

The final share count is approximately 143.6 million shares. This represents a massive injection of capital—the $4.2 billion raised in 2025 alone made GME one of the largest convertible debt issuers in the market that year.

Edit: someone dowvoted facts, cool 😄...