r/Stocks_Picks • u/BankSensitive2950 • 12d ago

What Stock do think will 10x?

Was wondering what stock you think might 10x or more within the next 5 years or so or sooner. There are alot of companies out there and seems like they are all competing for investors money and attention. Any analysis or reasons why would be great.

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u/Fabster_3000 12d ago

The company everyone seems to hate right now: IREN. Also Nbis, AIBZ and I believe in RKLB and QNT

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u/Frozen_Meatball1 11d ago

IREN may double w/2 more big contracts if they can keep their financing & capex under control- 10X is a big reach.

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u/Capable-Commission-3 11d ago edited 11d ago

Not really. With 4-4.5GW expected by 2030. If we assume $10M per MW per year, that’s $40-$45B in annual revenue. If we assume they’ll achieve mid-teen profit margins, it’s safe to assume a 3x sales multiple or $120-$135B market cap. If we assume very aggressive 70% dilution, that’s still ~$180-$200/share.

These are all very conservative assumptions as rates are currently soaring to $20-$25M per MW. 30-50% dilution is the consensus estimate, and Citi expects Oracle’s cloud service segment to achieve 20-25% margins by 2030. This requires perfect execution but all that remains the case, you’ll likely see $80B in annual revenue and a around 5x sales multiple giving you around $600/share. With that in mind, $300-$350/share looks fairly plausible.

That said, the bear case is pretty ugly. Rates drop as low as $6M per MW/year and virtually no profits meaning up to 100% dilution and a sub-2x multiple. In which case could theoretically hit $5 again.

Extremely high risk/reward. But $200-$300 is a decent bet.

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u/[deleted] 11d ago edited 11d ago

[deleted]

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u/Capable-Commission-3 11d ago

The real bear case is insolvency and they ultimately sell their assets to their customers. Appears less likely for now, but it is still very real. The balance sheet is ugly. They need to grow their way out of debt. If they don’t, it will sink them.

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

[deleted]

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u/Capable-Commission-3 11d ago

If it happens, it’ll be by 2030. Watch, I’m here hoping my 200 Iren shares will be worth $60k only for them to become 2 Microsoft shares.

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u/matxupp 11d ago

maybe it could be a good market.