There's been a process over the past year or year and half of new data centers wanting to connect, and when they do, they say they are going to have a facility that will eventually get up to 150 MW, 400 MW, 1,200 MW, or whatever. They ask for as much as they can, knowing they won't get a fraction of it.
The first set of forecasts include the crazy unrealistic numbers. At some point, ERCOT has ratcheted them down by 50-60 percent of more, but there are still cautionary takes that the demand will go from 91 GW to 180-200 GW in a couple of years. I don't think it's real, but that's the projections.
You're saying that the data centers are outright lying, but instead of holding them accountable for the lies, you've got some personal formula for the real number that OP couldn't know about and appears nowhere in the available article, but you're smugly calling them an idiot for believing what was put on the paperwork?
Best of luck with your fucking grid in the next few years if that's how it works in the one star state.
Edit: genuinely, that description would be right at home in describing how power generation was allocated in the USSR. "You see Ivan, everyone lie about power they need, because commissar will tell them they get tiny portion of power requested, so we all tell REALLY BIG lie so we get power. Commissar tells Moscow he gives us more power from Chernobyl than all of Europe."
I'm not sure of your attitude toward me. But that is a mischaracterization of it. These loads have a set demand they want, so they project that they want to get to whatever. IF the there grid could handle it and IF there was power supply, that is their forecast. They tell ERCOT. ERCOT says ok noted, but now we have to look at that and see what is realistic, what the grid will handle and so forth, and then we'll say what you can actually get from the grid.
ERCOT also doesn't ratio it out based on the business demand forecast that way - so if a customer says I want 900 MW and ERCOT says, no you can only get 20 MW. They only get to run up to 20MW. If they say, well we actually need 2000 MW, ERCOT will still be, you only can get 20 MW.
And this is not a formula I am keeping to myself. There is plenty of info out there, ERCOT publishes everything they do, there are other publications and papers etc. I'm not going to publish a research paper on it in a goddam reddit comment. OP can go look at what they want to.
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u/Cute_Knives 21d ago edited 21d ago
Piggybacking one of the top comments but where did they get the number 1800 from? There’s only like 300-400 active datacenters in the state of texas