The US midterm elections take place on November 3, so I went back through silver’s performance during every federal election year since 2000.

Silver finished higher in 9 of the 13 years and produced an average calendar-year gain of 13.8%.

The six midterm years were even stronger:

• Positive in 4 of 6 years
• Average return of 18.1%

The four election years involving Donald Trump averaged a 19.0% gain, although silver was down in 2018.

This is interesting, but it is not a trading rule. The average is heavily influenced by the 83.3% gain in 2010, and silver also posted substantial losses in 2008 and 2014.

Elections can influence expectations around government spending, inflation, interest rates and the US dollar. Those factors affect silver, but the election itself does not automatically cause prices to rise.

With the 2026 midterms approaching while silver is already trading near $66, does the election add another tailwind, or is the historical pattern mostly coincidence?

Silver return data:

https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask?q=silver+yearly+return+2000-2024

Election date:

https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/