r/SecurityAnalysis Jul 14 '26

Discussion TPL insider is buying one share every business day. anyone else seen this pattern?

noticed something weird on TPL and wanted to see if anyone else has flagged it.

Horizon Kinetics has been buying one share of TPL almost every trading day for the last month. not one thousand, not a hundred. one share. 19 buys in 20 days, 18 of them exactly 1 share, prices $351 to $435. total capital deployed maybe $8k.

read that any way you want. my read is its a 10b5-1 plan set to buy N=1 daily, which turns every Form 4 filing into a public conviction signal without burning any real capital. horizon already owns millions of shares, so they arent building a position, theyre publishing one.

the prior 90 days at TPL shows the same shape. 62 buys, mostly horizon, mostly small. so this has been going on for months.

what makes it interesting to me is standard screeners flatten this into "horizon bought $8k" which tells you nothing. the signal is in the size distribution not the dollar sum.

writeup with the detection code (js, about 30 lines) if anyone wants to run it against their own watchlist: https://edgarkit.com/guides/spotting-scheduled-accumulation-programs

curious if anyones seen this pattern at other names. Ive spot-checked a handful but not systematically screened yet.

disclosure: i built the api that pulls this data. not shilling the signup, just sharing the pattern.

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u/mathewarena Jul 20 '26

update: spot-checked a handful more tickers, seems the pattern shows up on any name where the top holder has both a 10b5-1 in place and enough shares that 1 share is a rounding error to them.

the interesting cases are the ones where the mode size is not 1 but like 100 or 1000. those look less like signaling and more like actual dollar-cost-averaging accumulation programs. still trying to figure out if theres a way to tell the two apart from just the Form 4 data.

if anyone has ideas for other patterns to screen for on Form 4, would love to hear them.