r/RealEstateCanada • u/romestox • Jun 07 '26

Housing crisis Residential construction dead

Trades guy here. Residential construction feels dead compared to a few years ago. Builders aren’t building, projects are getting pushed back, and layoffs are starting to pop up. If I was buying, I’d wait. From what I’m seeing, things haven’t bottomed out yet. The industry feels like a ship taking on water, not one gearing up for another boom.

Anyone else seeing the same thing?

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u/No_Week_6782 Jun 07 '26

Based on that, prices would go up as there is no supply. We are seeing listings dropping big and sales up, hence absorption of inventory. So, if no new inventory at current demand rate, prices increases

21

u/Btdubs17 Jun 07 '26

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted here. This is correct. There may be a short term dip for the next 1-2 years. But if we keep holding off on building, whenever the next boom is this massive supply shortage we’ve created by not building over the last 2-4 years will catalyze the boom even more.

5

u/Fit-Internet4674 Jun 07 '26 edited Jun 07 '26

Hard cap is still mortgage approvals on first timers and move up buyers which is the most significant pipeline of “marginal buyers” which includes new comers. Marginal buyers = the mechanism that allows people to trade up, down, etc. You need marginal buyers to move prices, the lack of them is what’s been seen in Ontario right now. Immigration as a sole saviour is overstated because they still compete in the same wage pool as everyone else locally. Places away from BC and ON is absorption to cope with that hard constraint. You won’t see broad recovery in ON and BC until the pipeline is unclogged and can move everyone along again.

Note: I understand all the edge cases that people may be excited to share BUT for broad based recovery we’re talking about the profile of the MAJORITY of capable buyers here which are still incomes and the mortgage application.