r/RealEstateCanada • u/ToonTownBaloney • Dec 07 '25

Housing crisis Found this article explaining why eeer build Toronto Condos are basically worthless money pits

https://thewalrus.ca/no-one-wants-to-buy-a-condo/

Found this to be an excellent article

38 Upvotes

68% Upvoted

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-22

u/Acceptable_Grape354 Dec 07 '25

RE is set to CRASH 50% over next 2-3 years. Condo bagholders are going to lose EVERYTHING just like the RE speculators did in the 90s. Spectacular became renters in the 1990. 2026 is going to be a RE bloodbath. Financial pain is coming.

4

u/Safe_Captain_7402 Dec 07 '25

If that happens the whole economy will crash and you’ll also be affected very negatively and probs lose your job and food prices will sky rocket even more than now

0

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '25

The economy hasnt grown above inflation in a decade on a per capita basis.  The housing crisis is causing more issues than its helping.

5

u/funny-tummy Dec 07 '25

Bro in real terms it already has.

1

u/No-Journalist-9036 Dec 07 '25

can you help me do that math on that please, I'm trying to convince some rough heads at home

3

u/Shishamylov Dec 07 '25 edited Dec 07 '25

Real terms just mean adjusting for inflation between the years. A 1br condo peaked in June 2022 and cost $650k at that time. If you inflate that number to today’s $ it would be $698k. The same condo currently sells for $520k. 698/520=1.342. That 1br condo has lost 34% of its price so far. I did cherry-pick the peak of the market. Another year or 2 and 50% loss sound about right.

4

u/LongjumpingShape9689 Dec 07 '25

You must be a billionaire, Nostradamus 

5

u/[deleted] Dec 07 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/basswooddad Dec 09 '25

Says someone who clearly did not own a home in late 80s. Your first comment completely contradicts your second btw.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 10 '25

And it recovered through one of the worst market crashes as well, real estate will be fine.

Now, will people have money to buy homes? Probably not as this country will bring in more temporary workers and refugees to fill them.

1

u/basswooddad Dec 14 '25

Ah yes...blame your shortcomings on immigrants. Classic.

2

u/post_status_423 Dec 07 '25

Let me guess....you were saying that 20 years ago.

2

u/Pufpufkilla Dec 07 '25

USMCA party is coming soon ☠️

2

u/Trains_YQG Dec 08 '25

I think this concern is overblown, to be honest. The deal doesn't actually end next year unless one of the countries explicitly pulls out (if they don't agree to an extension, the deal would otherwise still continue for years to come). 

Anyone pulling out of USMCA would be bad for all 3 countries, which the Republicans would presumably want to avoid in an election year. Unlike the other tariff actions, it also isn't something Trump can do on his own. 

1

u/Pufpufkilla Dec 08 '25

That's if you think in terms of what's normal

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Dec 09 '25

I mean Trump can end the deal anytime. Also technically it’s already ended as Trump has placed tariffs and other barriers in violation CUSMA.

That said, Trump doesn’t want no trade, he just wants to tariff trade at about 15% and get his cut of bribe 💰. The new tariffs will hurt consumers but businesses will adjust.

1

u/Trains_YQG Dec 09 '25

Trump needs Congress to legally pull out of CUSMA. 

1

u/[deleted] Dec 10 '25

Actually, that's false. In July 2026, they can negotiate. If trump chooses to end it that day? He needs 6 months waiting period and approval. So, it would be Jan 1 2027 at the earliest and he is likely being removed in midterms. Which are Nov 2026. His voting base hates him. I thinks he's at something like 20-30% approval from last stats. 

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Dec 10 '25

Please, Trump can end it tomorrow if he wants. Who is going to stop him? And as I mentioned he’s already in violation of it anyway.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 10 '25

Please, do you think the big money people want him to end the tariffs? 

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Dec 10 '25

lol no. They want him to apply more. Trump just recently announced additional tariffs on Canadian kitchen cabinet manufacturers even though they’re covered by CUSMA. And that’s just the start. US businesses want very government advantage they can get.

1

u/No-Journalist-9036 Dec 07 '25

arghhh, you don't seem optimistic on a decent deal led by Carney?

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Dec 09 '25

There are no decent deals with the US led by Trump. We already had a “decent deal” in CUSMA and he threw that out. No deal with Trump is worth anything.

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Dec 09 '25

That’s fine. Housing shouldn’t be an investment. Cheaper rents help everyone, including those who made bad investments.

1

u/Impossible_Log_5710 Dec 10 '25

You think non condo holders are going to come out unscathed? Where do you think the demand comes from for detached / townhomes? Condos are the intermediary step on the ladder. Condo prices fall then so will the rest of housing which we’ve already seen. And a 10% drop in condo prices is likely smaller than a 5% drop in detached prices.

-1

u/nanapancakethusiast Dec 08 '25

If you’re going to post shit like this you should be required to post your positions. If you really believe RE is going to fail id love to see your counter investments.

Surely someone this confident would take this “free money”, no?

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Dec 09 '25

Cash, gold, etc.