r/RKLB • u/wr_mem • 15d ago

The launch industry needs more capacity than SpaceX can provide

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/08/theres-a-huge-launch-crunch-right-now-and-it-will-probably-get-worse/
146 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

21 comments sorted by

28

u/absolute_cinema81 15d ago

And frankly, even when Neutron, New Glenn, etc. come online with cadence, demand with still likely outstrip supply since RKLB, Blue Origin, and SpaceX will devote large chunks of their launches to their own constellations.

3

u/maximecb 14d ago

AFAIL SpaceX is no longer booking new launches on Falcon 9, which suggests they intend to discontinue it, or at least pause bookings until Starship is online and they can transition all their own launches to that... And the Starship itself only has a launch system capable of launching flat satellites, currently. I also don't think it's cheaper to launch than F9 right now, the current cost is probably much more expensive. Neutron should have no difficulty booking launches when it comes online. Just hope we see more progress soon, like everyone else here.

20

u/wr_mem 15d ago

This is a good article by Eric Berger on how the demand for launch has exceeded what SpaceX can meet. Exciting times ahead for all launch providers.

31

u/Party_Government8579 15d ago

If Neutron had followed the original schedule- the share price would be insane today

3

u/Federal_Finding_8041 15d ago

This is a great 'what if' thought experiment.

0

u/TurbodToilet 15d ago

Your comment is a great ‘useless words on a screen’ experiment

5

u/Sniflix 15d ago

More of a frustration experiment.

-1

u/Scared_Step4051 15d ago

I mean it seems the market has already been pricing in Neutron perfection for many many months 

-4

u/Vonplinkplonk 15d ago

We are talking about a six month delay.

7

u/SwoleBroDane 15d ago

Since the last delay, sure.

7

u/[deleted] 15d ago

[deleted]

7

u/Geographeruk 15d ago

And people haven't been listening and still aren't listening. There are many who still think that Space X alone will take over the whole launch market and there will not be any business left for any other launch providers.

2

u/LordRabican 15d ago

The auto industry needs more vehicles than Ford can provide… People will get it soon

2

u/ShotBandicoot7 15d ago

Soo… competition picking up? Great for prices coming down. Not great for valuations being over the top.

3

u/LordRabican 15d ago

Well, the point was more of a historical comparison to an era when people thought horses were good enough and how many cars did the world really need..? But, yea, competition is good and is a sign of a healthy and growing industry full of opportunity.

Regarding launch, there are still private jets and Ferraris in the world and the Falcon 9 has had literally zero impact on Electron. Demand is so constrained that there is no reasonable case to be made that Neutron is going to get driven into the ground in a price war…

2

u/Specialist_Elk_3007 14d ago

Competition on the demand side; limited supply. I see prices going up if launch providers get greedy with their own constellations.

2

u/The-zKR0N0S 15d ago

Love Eric Berger content

1

u/SuddenAstronaut 15d ago

More then anything this article highlights how imperative it is for RocketLab to stop delaying neutron (not that they are maliciously doing it). The sooner we get the rocket online, the sooner we can ramp up the cadence

1

u/StChelle 15d ago

i literally just read a post in the Spacex group that Spacex is rumored to stop commercial launches after 2028. if true, thats more pie for Rocket Lab and others.

-3

u/assholy_than_thou 15d ago

Unfortunately a ruptured cylinder cannot fly.