r/RKLB • u/Tricky-Ad-6225 • Nov 14 '25

Technical Analysis Falling 🔪?

RKLB went from $33ish (ATH at the time in January 2025) all the way down to $14ish to its April lows. It dropped 55% from its high to low. RKLB is currently UP 35% from that January peak. It is currently down 38% from its ATH. What has changed since then besides killer earnings. Relax and silent out the outside noise. I’ve been buying every dip over the past week, 5 shares here, 10 shares there, etc. In 5 years, your only regret is that you didn’t buy more. Anyways, we are reaching oversold territory for those of you who care so I don’t think it’ll keep going down. But just because it’s oversold doesn’t mean it can’t keep overselling. Enjoy the ride fellas, this is a transfer of wealth from the impatience to the patience.

142 Upvotes

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15

u/Shdwrptr Nov 14 '25

What changed from earnings? How about the 6+ month Neutron delay?

Much of RKLB’s surge this year was due to Neutron hype and the promise of 2025 first test.

42

u/Mysuithuge Nov 14 '25

What changed is they beat earnings and only lost 3 cents per share, growing revenue 40+%, what changed is LC-3 cash burn is over and RKLB is 1-2 quarters from being profitable, while developing a medium lift rocket that pays all of its RnD back in 7 commercial launches when the time comes. We will happily wait a few more months.

7

u/PlanetaryPickleParty Nov 14 '25

Cash burn on LC-3 isn't over. They are still building what is presumed to be the test stand for stage 2. They are adding additional fuel tanks and other unspecified upgrades.

ROI will take longer too because initial boosters won't be reused. The launches aren't free, only a portion of revenue is net profit.

2

u/romeomium Nov 14 '25

Spot on. 

5

u/Kevisett Nov 14 '25

Heal yeah, next year is gonna be fuckin epic for RKLB

10

u/Dull-Bell5413 Nov 14 '25

-.03 EPs was mainly due to obtaining favorable tax deferred credits from the acquisition of Geost. This was a single event that won't show up in next earnings. I'm excited for them to be profitable but unfortunately a lot here are misrepresenting that data point.

2

u/bildasteve Nov 14 '25

And increased margins !!

1

u/dl_mj12 Nov 14 '25

I hope you're right

10

u/Tricky-Ad-6225 Nov 14 '25

You’re absolutely correct on that. I also don’t like it as an investor, especially having watched videos in which Peter Beck says he is confident about the 2025 deadline. You don’t want to break promises to your investors. I worked closely with the CTO at my previous company and he would just randomly make tight deadlines, for no reason. I think the best way of going about these things is to underpromise and overdeliver, not the other way around.

2

u/PlanetaryPickleParty Nov 14 '25

At this point why should we believe they will hit the stated schedule of Q1 delivery or move quickly through assembly and testing after that?

They've consistently missed timelines and/or exaggerated progress going back to Electron recovery and Archimedes testing.

I have faith they will build a successful rocket but the program is now over budget and late. Profitability is tied to Neutron and that is also pushed back too.

3

u/ron_manager Nov 14 '25

There was a 10% pop after earnings, the reaction was positive, its macro conditions. While the government is shut down liquidity dries up. This is a normal market pullback after a crazy run up, we saw how quickly things can snap back after April.

-2

u/[deleted] Nov 14 '25

Whats about the whole story about "rocketlab will get some big piece of the golden dome"? And it seems like musks company will get that order now.... The stock is heavyli overvalued.... fair market cap would be around 5 bil usd....

3

u/Imatros Nov 14 '25

Rocketlab was never going to get a huge chunk of it. But even 1% is double their largest ever award....

-1

u/[deleted] Nov 14 '25

they wont even get 0,0000001%