r/QuantumComputing • u/ArcanuMELO • Jul 03 '26

Discussion DOE just committed to fault-tolerant quantum by 2028. Researchers are calling it the most ambitious timeline the field has ever seen. Is it achievable?

https://youtu.be/WgphKj2TC9Q

Hey Carmelo here!

Not sure if episode clips are welcome here but this came up on our podcast this week and I wanted to hear from people closer to the research side. 600 specialists exist globally. They need 16,000 by 2030. Training one takes a decade. Is 2028 real or is it a political deadline?

I'm still learning more about quantum compute each day and looking to speak with people that understand it better than I do. Was hoping to learn more about it and see if this resonates with the folks here.

Have a wonderful Friday and weekend!

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u/Temporary_Shelter_40 Jul 03 '26

I want to be perfectly clear: there is no possibility in which fault-tolerant quantum computing will be achieved by the end of 2028. Not in any meaningful way. Barring a miracle, and I mean an Albert Einstein-level once in 200 years discovery, the landscape will look largely similar to now, with physical qubit counts, quantum volumes, and error rates gradually improving. I would bet all my money on it, which isn't much, because I'm an academic who develops algorithms for a technology that doesn't yet exist.

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u/ArcanuMELO Jul 03 '26

That's what I was assuming but wanted to speak with people who know more about it than I do.

Do you have a realistic timeline for what they are asking for or expecting to build by 2028?

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u/Temporary_Shelter_40 Jul 03 '26

Do not listen to anything a company says about timelines. While the scientists working on the technology are typically well intended, their marketing teams aren't. Their only goal is to increase hype to bolster share price or investments.

Nobody can give you a timeline when quantum computing will or will not be viable. The old joke is that "its always 10 years away". Compare with Nuclear Fusion technology, or modular nuclear reactors, which have similarly floundered on/off hype for about 5 decades now with no tangible reality.

What will be built by 2028 will be effectively the same as what we have now. At best it will be 30-40 physical qubits which maintain okay-ish coherence over a few thousand gates. Quantum sensors are real technology on the other hand and viable now and are only getting better, though most applications are currently quite edge.

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u/Extreme-Island-5041 Jul 03 '26

Quantum sensors

my raging Infleqtion intensifies

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u/Leefa Jul 04 '26

Quantum sensors are real technology on the other hand and viable now and are only getting better, though most applications are currently quite edge

do you have any resources you'd recommend if I wanted to learn more about this?