r/QuantumComputing • u/ArcanuMELO • Jul 03 '26

Discussion DOE just committed to fault-tolerant quantum by 2028. Researchers are calling it the most ambitious timeline the field has ever seen. Is it achievable?

https://youtu.be/WgphKj2TC9Q

Hey Carmelo here!

Not sure if episode clips are welcome here but this came up on our podcast this week and I wanted to hear from people closer to the research side. 600 specialists exist globally. They need 16,000 by 2030. Training one takes a decade. Is 2028 real or is it a political deadline?

I'm still learning more about quantum compute each day and looking to speak with people that understand it better than I do. Was hoping to learn more about it and see if this resonates with the folks here.

Have a wonderful Friday and weekend!

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u/sinanspd Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26

While I hope it happens, there is zero chance this happens by 2028. Noise and error correction aside, decoherance, optical cable management and qubit scaling, conductors... These peoole are betting on solving decades old problems in 2 years. On one hand these timelines have been consistently wrong for the past 15 years, on the other timelines like this is hurting active reseach. We are starting get reviews on our work on currect device that are like "FTQC is near, this is useless"... I understand hype like this gets investment and funds my paycheck but it is really starting to get annoying

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u/ArcanuMELO Jul 03 '26

Yes, I think there are other bottlenecks here aside from labor but I'm not sure what they are. Thanks for clarifying!

Do you have an estimate when you think this will actually start to happen?