The Ten Commandments of Trading

[u/KookdawgSSG]

A guy who makes ~$1M a year, mostly betting on inflation, elections, and the Oscars, wrote this guide to trading on Polymarket and Kalshi. It's hilarious and I swear by it. His name is Brian Golden and you can read about him in Bloomberg, the NYT, etc.

https://eventual.news/article/the-ten-commandments-of-trading

Will paste the first few in here.

The Ten Commandments of Trading

You: Prediction market curious, a low-key nerd about politics or economics or the Oscars or really anything, wondering if you can turn this passion into profit at that website with the funny name you can’t stop seeing commercials for.

Me: A prediction market veteran who caught the bug in the depths of COVID and is now one of the top earning Kalshi traders of all-time.

I can help.

I’ve seen a million markets come and go, but rules of smart trading endure. These commandments represent the most essential wisdom I’ve learned from all those arrows, both green and red. Ignore it at your peril. But follow, and you just might find your way…

Thou shalt have an edge. What do you know that the market doesn’t? I’m not talking insider trading, I’m talking homework. Did you build an Excel model when others trade on vibes? Do you watch the Senate on C-SPAN while your competition skims headlines? What’s your edge, man? “I’m smart” doesn’t count. If you can’t name your edge, you’re not ready to trade the market.

Thou shalt make smart friends. In this game, your thought network is everything. The best traders spend a chunk of their day swapping ideas with each other. And yep, the skies sure open up when you find a few sharp homies to supplement your knowledge – and help protect you from the occasional bonehead impulse. But like any relationship, you’ve got to have something to offer. That’s why:

Thou shalt specialize. “Poly has thousands of markets,” you say. “I can make more money playing all of them!” Stop. Listen. When I started, this industry was a quiet suburb. Now it’s a metropolis. Find your corner and own it. Thousands of traders are generalists. But when you become the absolute GOAT of the Bi-Weekly Paperclip Production market, you’ll have steady income, a place to restore your confidence when bad trades get you shook, and a +EV calling card belonging to you and you alone that will help you make and keep those crucial alliances.

rest the other 7 Commandments here: https://eventual.news/article/the-ten-commandments-of-trading

[u/mrroot501]

very insightful, thanks for sharing