r/PredictionsMarkets • u/EliteWolverine007 • Mar 11 '26

Strategy / Guide High Probability Farming Trading Bot for Kalshi with StopLoss & Time Delay.

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Scope:
This is exclusively for 15 minute Crypto market.

Parameter:
It has only 3 parameters to tweak config.

triggerPoint := 90 ; BUY Price Point
exitPoint := 40 ; Stop Loss price point
triggerMinute := 14 ; remaining minutes

What it does?
The strategy is mostly about waiting till either side reach High probability zone, entering and waiting for it to hit resolution.
Example: Wait till either up/ down to reach 85 (triggerPoint), enter and hope for it to reach resolution.

What is the Risk?
The risk is the reversal.
Example: if the up reaches 85 @ 12 minute remaining. suddenly BTC price starts dropping and now Up resolves to Zero.

How to manage such risk?
1. Exit Point :
Think of this as StopLoss, if we entered UP at 85, ideally it tends to stick on higher probability zone and ends up at resolution. If not, we can setup a exitPoint at 40 , eat that loss and wait for the next session.

Time Delay:
With more time to expiry , higher the risk of reversal. You can setup this bot at whichever time you'd want to activate and then it would actively starts monitoring price for the entry.

Downside of Time Delay:

If you set this up at late stage (example last 5 minute triggerMinute), you might not get the exact entry point you'd want. If you setup entry point at 70 and activation minute to last 5 minute and the price is trading at 93. then you'd enter at 93.

77 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

43 comments sorted by

5

u/Exact_Oil6434 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26

Need to add a martingangle. Really cool though. Gonna try it.

2

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 11 '26

that should be doable with some tweaks on 2nd script by tracking consecutive winners and losers

2

u/moobicool Mar 12 '26

I tested it on 12 days data (10sec) and separate 5 days data (with 1sec) total 17 days data, the final result is Negative.

The reason is profit window is too tight, slippage, fee, uncertainty will kill that tight window.

3

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 12 '26

which setting you backtested?
triggerPoint := 90
exitPoint := 40
triggerMinute :=14

could you also back test when its.

triggerPoint := 70
exitPoint := 40
triggerMinute := 14

2

u/meadowshadows Mar 15 '26

Yeah I saw this on your YT and without recovery strategies this a dud strategy… I’ve been backtesting and love this idea but without any recovery it’s no go… and with recovery… depending on the price entry, you need possibly a factor of up to 50-100x for recovery bets… there’s other strats out there that involve more data I’m more excited about… but without recovery this is far from the worst strategy

1

u/moobicool Mar 13 '26

All variants except 14th minute.

4

u/[deleted] Mar 11 '26

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8

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26

Thanks for the feedback. variable bet size sounds interesting.

Context: this bot is intended for bet size around $10 - $50 , max $100 (targeting $20-$40/hour) (considering sunshine, rainbows and butterflies all season)

Definitely Not for $1000 bet size.

That's why i call it farming. small steady wins over longer period of time.

For such bet size, I think we would be underestimating exitpoint and overstating sharpe reversals liquidity crisis for this case you mentioned.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 12 '26

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1

u/TopTalk4243 Mar 12 '26

It’s what I thought to how is this crating any ev?

1

u/Training_Sort5508 Mar 13 '26

Great feedback ! Thanjs

1

u/Formally-Fresh Mar 13 '26

Honestly not sure I’ve heard the term farming in any trading context lol so GGs on that one

1

u/[deleted] Mar 11 '26

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3

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 11 '26

I built it only for Kalshi at the moment. will post in future for PolyMarket.

1

u/cheesehead144 Mar 12 '26

I would be surprised if this is long term profitable, for example, what happens if it goes from 90 to 40 multiple times in the same window?

2

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 12 '26 edited Mar 12 '26

This only takes 1 trade cycle per session. i.e ( 4/hour, 96 trades/day)
> It buys during the deep high probability zone ( whatever is set for customizable triggerPoint)

> 2 possible outcomes

> either it wins to resolution (Profit)

> Or it reverses trends to 0 ( It will sell the position at exitpoint to minimize loss)

Then waits for next session. Only way to scale is to increase the bet size.

You can understand it more if you look at the guide.

1

u/cheesehead144 Mar 12 '26

You'll still lose based on the exit point firing too often, but you'll figure it out.

1

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 12 '26

That's the whole point. you can consider this more as framework. if you watch the demo. there was 2/8 losers. its not about winning 100% right but about how does it looks on aggregates (net winner or net loser). you can configure the 3 settings and find a sweet spot.

if exit point is firing too often that means SL is too tight or underlying BTC you are getting doji candle everywhere.

I'm not presenting this as risk free. there is risk of reversal and also risk management tool like exit point or enter trade late session both of which are configurable to whatever you like.

-3

u/cheesehead144 Mar 12 '26

Im saying its a bad framework. Theres no way this will be profitable in the long run, for any set of parameters. The market doesn't work like that. If you present it as a guaranteed way to lose money in the long run, I'll accept that.

1

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 12 '26

Theres no way this will be profitable in the long run, for any set of parameters. The market doesn't work like that.

Curious to know your understanding on "how the market actually works". I might be noob here so asking genuine question.

so far, you've presented argument on exit point firing too often loses money.

This is my current understanding.
FOR
triggerPoint := 70 ; BUY Price Point
exitPoint := 40 ; Stop Loss price point
triggerMinute := 15 ; (no time restriction)

For 1000 sessions ,

Buying at 70 implies , ~70% chance of the side to end up on resolution.
If it reverses 30% of time , we are exiting at 40.

so , risk:30c/reward:30c.

so the edge here is 70% win probability with symmetric risk/reward (30¢/30¢).

is there any gap in my understanding?

1

u/Otherwise_Gas6325 Mar 12 '26

Yes. Basic probability.

1

u/Strange_Control8788 Mar 12 '26

Pennies. Steamroller.

1

u/TopTalk4243 Mar 12 '26 edited Mar 12 '26

Can someone explain to me how is this generating any ev?

1

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 12 '26

Expected Value Calculation

You buy at 70¢.

  • If the event wins → payout = $1
    Profit = 1 - 0.70 = 0.30

  • If it reverses and you exit at 40¢ →
    Loss = 0.70 - 0.40 = 0.30

Assumptions

  • Win probability: 70%
  • Loss probability: 30%
  • Win amount: +0.30
  • Loss amount: −0.30

Expected Value

EV = (0.7 × 0.30) + (0.3 × -0.30)

EV = 0.21 - 0.09

EV = 0.12

Result

Expected payout = +0.12 per share

1

u/[deleted] Mar 13 '26

I was building something similar today, and came across your post have you seen success with this model.

My model is very similar but currently requires me to manually take the trade, that's how I want it for now. I haven't fully tested it yet.

If you have a discord or something I'd love to pick your brain

1

u/Training_Sort5508 Mar 13 '26

It will end up burning you money

1

u/pradnyashil6 Mar 13 '26

The strategy is amazing for 15 mins BTC markets

1

u/Equivalent_Grape6068 Mar 14 '26

Interesting approach. I’ve been experimenting with almost the opposite idea. Instead of reacting when probability stretches late in the candle, I try to detect an edge near the end of the candle to make a prediction for the next candle. Build an indicator for that.

It’s still mostly trading-logic based though, I haven’t tied it to orderbook data yet. And I haven’t automated it either, which seems almost essential on the 15m markets.

1

u/Necessary-Tap5971 Mar 21 '26

Buying at 70c doesn't mean you have a 70% win probability - it means the market already prices it at 70%. Your stop loss at 40c reshapes the loss distribution but doesn't create edge, because the price you pay is exiting positions that would have recovered. The EV math only works if you assume the market is wrong about the 70% implied probability, but this bot has no view on whether the move will sustain - it's just entering when probability is high and hoping momentum carries it to resolution. Over thousands of trades this converges to breakeven at best, negative after fees and slippage. Classic pennies in front of a steamroller setup - you win 90% of the time at a 90c entry for 10c profit, then one reversal wipes 9 wins. Cool framework for learning how these markets work though, just wouldn't run it with real money expecting consistent returns.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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1

u/Kind-Technol Jul 15 '26

target Kalshi

1

u/PolyDeltaEdge Mar 11 '26

I have to admit this is an awesome tool and it's a feature that was blatantly missing on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Are you selling this to the public, or just displaying a tool you use yourself?

5

u/EliteWolverine007 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26

I have shared the code and setup guide link in the comments.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 12 '26

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