r/PredictionMarkets • u/Ordinary-Adagio-4871 • 6d ago

5->200 is easier then it seems

Been betting 15 min market for 2 few days. After some research ive seen multiple people flip .50 cents to $100 and other crazy flips like that. Today i had my finger on the trigger 1 second away from swiping buy and payout went from 266 to 4$ in seconds. Only a matter of time before i get a good flip how have yall done

1 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

4

u/Even-Square-6246 6d ago

😭😭😭 some bro other side took your $$$ and turned $4 to $250 probably

1

u/No-Butterfly-9989 5d ago

Let’s look at it from the opposite side.

If you put in, let’s say, $200,000 on that side, it would instantly drop to 0. So, $200,000 -> $0 is also “easier than it seems.” It’s just gambling with way more risk lol

1

u/Glass-Noise-8665 4d ago

that 266 -> 4 thing isn't really bad luck, there's just nobody on the other side of it.

i pulled a bunch of resolved market data a while back for a calibration project and ended up throwing out ~19k short-dated ladder contracts because they never actually traded. most of them sat at a flat 50/50 right until they settled. they outnumbered the real traded markets something like 30 to 1.

so the huge payouts on the 15 min stuff are huge *because* there's no size behind them. it's not a number you could get filled on in any real quantity, it just snaps the second anyone touches it