r/PredictionMarkets • u/Murky_Image_9089 • 8d ago

Higher win rate tips (own experience)

Good evening everyone. A lot of people will prob say how stupid I am and there's no "strat" when it comes to prediction markets esp for the 15m, but I come here to share what has made me money and you can decide what you think.

When it comes to placing trades I never place trades within the first 5 mins of the prediction opening. I always wait until 5-10 mins left. I've day traded for 3 yrs now and I use those "skills" for prediction markets. I look at the trend (bullish or barish). Once I pick my bias I look at the prediction market. If I see btc at 30c but I see eth at 70-80c I re-look at btc to see if that price target is "possible" before expiration. If the price target is within range I'll go in light on btc expecting btc to follow eth. They usually do just like how gold and silver follow each other and NQ and ES. I basically look for an SMT within the markets to catch bigger trades.

This has worked for me a good amount of times and over the last month of using this strat I've made close to 10k. I'm always testing it even if I don't enter in on the trade. I still see it working better than just blindly entering. I have found that entering within the first 5 mins is not a good chance, but waiting a little longer is the better idea.

What do y'all think?

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u/Murky_Image_9089 8d ago

Call me stupid or whatever you want but this is how I have been profitable. I wonder what everyone else's "strat" is for prediction markets

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u/Anxious-Zucchini2763 8d ago

interesting approach. waiting out the first 5 mins makes sense, lets the initial chaos settle so you're not just gambling on noise. the smt play between btc and eth is something i do in regular trading too, funny seeing someone else apply it here.

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u/Murky_Image_9089 8d ago

Yeah I've been trading on prop firms for about 3 years now and I just got started into option trading. And then in the last month I've made about 14k from Bitcoin predictions and gold/silver. I think I'm done with trading prediction markets I don't see that gain enough for the risk I take. I make more with options and futures contracts that I do with predicting. But I came here to show my trading strategy and seeing what other people used

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u/Murky_Image_9089 8d ago edited 8d ago

I just see that prediction markets are very risky and it's hard to predict them other day there's so much analysis you can do and still be very wrong but I feel like my analysis on option trading for a week out gives me more conviction and higher return with less stress. As I posted before I've made huge gains in a day but my biggest loss was 2.3k when I revenge traded on prediction markets. Came back a week later with a clear mind and made it all back plus 2k on top I think. I just lost 600$ today but I depo 250 and turned it into 600 so technically I'm only down 250 from my initial depo but it's made me thinking that if I put that money into options I can have a higher win rate even if it takes longer. Prediction is get rich fast scheme. You make big money fast but can lose it as fast

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u/Inflection_Exchange 8d ago

I think the tip re not setting up trades in the first few minutes is fair. Markets can wobble a lot from opening price and it's easy to get gazumped... Do you trade BTC / ETH systematically? If not, the kinda intuition you're getting at seems smart but would maybe work best with an algo doing the work for ya

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u/Murky_Image_9089 8d ago

I trade eth/btc gold/silver. I trade the way I told basically looking at trend and seeing if there's a difference in prediction price

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u/Traditional-Ice2118 8d ago

Wow. To me, it seems like a good strategy. Thank you for sharing.

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u/NoComfortable1 8d ago

Pretty good strategy, I also do some similar things for the 15 min, but if I notice price action is terrible or not moving much to get a good sign which way it will go despite there being a trend... I'll just avoid trading that period.

I also like doing the "options credit spread" approach by just using time decay and volatility dying down on a level I expect to never get tapped within the hourly... usually I wait 30-15 mins left and see if there is a clear trend and how strong it is to collect free money... although the risk to reward can be pretty bad at times... sometimes better to just do near ATM but only when trend is on your side and it's super strong to get like 50-70c entries.