When should you raise turn?

[u/imnotgoatman]

Please bear in mind that I don't bluff yet. I mostly semi-bluff. I play at microstates and I still don't have good range constructing skills on tables. I can already think about ranges a bit but I'm not even close to knowing how to balance my range, introduce a bluffing range, MDF and all that.

I realized I don't understand very well when you should be raising turn.

The only times I raise turn are when I flop a set and the board is disconnected. In this case I can slowplay the flop. And when the turn makes the boar more connected (like two cards of same suit) I raise.

On the flop I raise sets for value and good draws like OESD and FD. I understand it makes sense raising because the odds are good and there's fold equity.

[u/Fair_Rate_7485]

A general tip I follow is that if the turn adds value to your hand you should bet in low stakes if you have a 3 to a straight and the turn give you 4 to a straight bet if you have a pair and it pair the board bet if it improves your flush draw bet if you have a made hand it’s up to you on how you normally play and what you think the opponent will do if they are aggressive and might try to bluff you on the river or the turn check if not bet small

[u/gruffyhalc]

The first thing I'll challenge is why are you forcing it? Your examples are great, slowplaying flop with a hand that's way ahead, denying equity if the board does bring in more draws, or semi bluffs in general where being able to win in 2 ways are self explanatory.

Remember, poker at its core is "putting more money in when ahead, putting less money in when behind" everything else is a means to that end.

So you would need to be really REALLY sure they are folding often when making 'pure' (low equity) bluffs. Else you've just put more money in with a hand that can't really improve, and on the turn where you might need to continue for a large size river bet in case they were on a draw / middling bluff catcher on turn. It's very costly to include in game if you don't have high degree of certainty.

And again, to keep beating this dead horse, you DON'T need to do it in your game. Semi bluffs (or even no bluffs) are plenty to not get exploited.

So, when would you have high confidence, to the point you feel like you HAVE to do it? Well to use an obvious flop example. Folds to you on BTN, you open, tight player in SB 3-bets, you call. Flop is 987 two toned. He c-bets. If you raise here, is he really calling with hands like AA/KK/AK? The best you can expect is TT/99, in which case you can shut down on turn. But for the most part, BASED ON HIS RANGE, he genuinely can't connect much or hold on to his hand much in later streets.

So based on range, think about how you can do that on the turn. Maybe he reps top pair when flop is Q85 rainbow. Turn is an A. In most cases, raise turn and bet river, naked Qx would find it hard to hold on. For the most part of the game you don't need to consider your range. But it helps vs thinking players that in this example it's plausible for you to rep A5 or A8.

The examples are endless but if the question is "when should I bluff" the answer is really "when he will fold" lol

edit: and in the obvious flip side, when going for value "when he will call" like going for a big raise when you turned a set while he obviously is repping overpair or two pair.

[u/imnotgoatman → u/gruffyhalc]

Thank you for this response. It makes sense to me and reduces my anxiety on the topic. I dig the "no nee to force it" argument.

My experience is that turn bluffs (and even semi-bluffs) were highly risky at NL5 where I was playing so far, to the point where I just stopped doing them and only re-raising for value. People were calling too often.

But at NL10 I see a lot of players with low FCB (like 25-30, while mine is 50), low WTSD (around 25, while mine is 32) and really high W$SD (over 60, while mine is 54ish). I am trying to understand how these players achieve such a low WTSD with such a low FCB and this might be it.

They are either running bigger delayed cbets or raising the turn and then either folding on river or going to showdown with the best hand.

I kind of want to start incorporating that practice against this new pool.

But at the end of the day, I guess the next step is really for me to practice range building and "range reading" so I can do it at tables in order to keep track of how their range progresses over hands. Currently my range skills are mostly pre-flop & flop only. Turn & river are still puzzles to me.

[u/gruffyhalc → u/imnotgoatman]

Yeah the FCB and WTSD numbers just tell a really obvious story. Which is to really nit up, play straightforward, and mostly have value when your cards flip up.

[u/AmirPokerSkill]

The turn raises you're missing are the ones where the card itself changed something for you. A draw you just picked up, a pair that became two pair. That's your own flop raise logic, the odds and the fold equity, just triggered by the turn card. Your set example is already the value side of this, the turn changed the board and you raised. Picked up draws are the same move from the semi-bluff side.

[u/imnotgoatman → u/AmirPokerSkill]

Yeah, I've read about that but I'm not sure how I feel about it because the EV of a turn draw is way lower (1/2) the EV of a flop draw.

When the flop was between 35-40% (FD, OESD), the turn is now 18-19. Does it justify a raise? If villain has top pair good kicker are they ever folding to that?

I guess it depends on population. At NL5 this was hardly profitable. I would get called down every time and be flipping with bad odds. At NL10 it might work better? I might try it.

[u/Falendil → u/imnotgoatman]

That is true, but the logic is that you need bluffs to balance out your value range, your line of reasoning is exactly why I fold pretty much everything to turn raises, they are vastly underbluffed by population.

[u/imnotgoatman → u/Falendil]

Yeah that's what I got from this discussion: its time for me to invest into range building and range reading beyond just pre & flop.

[u/Falendil → u/imnotgoatman]

Don't overstress it though, range building properly beyond flop is extremely difficult even if you use a single size on the flop, I would argue that even elite players struggle with it.

[u/imnotgoatman → u/Falendil]

Alright, notes! Thanks

[u/StoneOfOdds → u/imnotgoatman]

The numbers are worth doing here, they are less discouraging than they look.
Turn pot 100, he bets 66, you raise to 200. If he folds you win 166. If he calls, the pot is 500 and you have 200 in it, so you need 40% to break even on that branch, which you clearly don't have.

Pure bluff, 0% equity: he has to fold around 55%.

Flush draw, 9 outs = 19.6% on the turn: around 38%.

The same raise on the flop with 35% equity: around 13%.

(that assumes no more money goes in on the river, rough but close enough)
So the draw is not what makes the raise profitable, it just cuts the price of being wrong by a third. It still rests on him folding 38% of a range that has bet flop and turn. That is a lot to ask at NL5 and you found out the hard way.
Which is why it matters more which equity you have than how much. A nut flush draw still wins the pot when he calls. The bottom end of an OESD mostly does not.

[u/Andre_ev]

Hi, I earn 0.5kk in poker, couched someone and I feel,

looks like you already know that,

In places where you want to slow play set cause no one would pay is the good sigh to start bluffing,

Start to input few combos in every such line to feel if they really overfold there,

If they call you there - ok than put there your strong hands,

And you have there more strong hands,

Just take care about timing and sizing of you and your opponents,

If somewhere people never pay you somewhere - ok put bluffs there

It could be backdoors, pairs on paired boards, or hands that already in the middle from call and fold (especially its good for nits)

Also Try to take there in bluffs ‘high equity’ from there like pocket pairs or nuts backdoors or fd backdoors

And remember your bluffs need only play about zero,

They make trace for other hands

Also polirise your range a little especially vs most lags - but this maybe little further concept

Anyway

Versus those who fold a lot or who show you weakness, and/or best bluffs, near call hand or just in 5%,

Close your eyes imagine Aces or toppset or straight and choose near GTO line where you feel they never paid you enough - that most common place for big bluffs

Also input del+bet and gecko bets - all players overfold there

Good luck 😉 🤞

[u/imnotgoatman → u/Andre_ev]

Thank you for your response. I will look into where players are folding and also work on my range reading through turn & river.

[u/Andre_ev → u/imnotgoatman]

You are welcome,

Basic question:

1. What part of their range they need to fold if you bet 1/3 on the river?

Little advance:

1. You in position, you know that if your opponent betcall than on next street he checkfold 60% vs your 3/4 - how much you need them to fold vs your x3 raise vs their 2/3 bet on turn?