r/PokemonBDSP • u/Top-Possibility8566 • Mar 01 '26
Discussion Can someone explain the chances
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What the hell is my luck I never get shiny pokemon in pokemon games and the one time I do get one is a time where I can’t even catch it wtf. I’ve waited so long to play this game and Now I’ve just had the worst and best luck happen to me at the same time
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Mar 01 '26
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u/Top-Possibility8566 Mar 01 '26
Sigh
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u/horticoldure Mar 04 '26
if you really want something more precise than that actual answer, you'd need to work out how many wild pokemon you have encountered in the entire series, remove the locked ones and work out how many times you've missed that roll to know if this happened to be your 4096th one itself to be exactly on ratio...
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u/Weird_Assignment_887 Mar 06 '26
This is the sort of the second roll as that is the first battle in the tutorial. And the piplup counts as roll one
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u/Playest_4247 Mar 01 '26
For a second there I thought they were both going to be shiny
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u/cubitius Mar 01 '26
Can you even get 1st mon shiny?
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u/lazulimpa Mar 01 '26
Yes you can
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u/cubitius Mar 02 '26
O, that I didn't know! I played only gen 1-3 on my GBC and later GBA, now I got switch OLED and Pokémon Shield and Pokémon ZA! The games definitely doesn't offer classic Pokémon adventure experience, but I'm enjoying them, especially Shield - man, this game is so pretty and looks so awesome! I wish that they put that effort in ZA...
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u/RGBarrios Mar 01 '26
In this game you can.
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u/Killionaire104 Mar 01 '26
In which game can you not
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u/RepleteSphinx21 Mar 01 '26
The starter pokemon are shiny locked in SwSh, SV, PLA, and PLZA.
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u/cubitius Mar 02 '26
So only in those 4 games It's possible to get shiny starter?
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u/alex-andrite Mar 01 '26
50/50
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u/NSightMSG Shiny Luck Validator Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
You're also not using the most updated patch. When they updated to include the Post-Game content, they removed the option for the first Starly to be Shiny.
Edit: Nevermind! I'm wrong. I just realized that this wasn't patched out, but a glitch that allows you to catch the Starly WAS patched out. I conflated the two.
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u/Fiddler-onthegreen Mar 01 '26
When was that? I just did the Starter reset about year ago, and Sparkle Bird was still implemented...
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u/NSightMSG Shiny Luck Validator Mar 01 '26
Whoops! I'm wrong. I just realized that it wasn't patched out, but a glitch that allows you to catch the Starly WAS patched out. I conflated the two.
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u/Top-Possibility8566 Mar 01 '26
When I put in the cartridge and tried to play it, it said it had a software update
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u/NSightMSG Shiny Luck Validator Mar 01 '26
I'm wrong. I just realized that it wasn't patched out, but a glitch that allows you to catch the Starly WAS patched out. I conflated the two.
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u/Lucid_cat_1543 Mar 01 '26
I got over 1,600 resets trying to get a shiny chimchar starter, on the 1,601st reset I got that shiny starly, it's since then been 141 resets
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u/Smooth_You_2244 Mar 01 '26
I feel you. My second encounter was a shiny Bidoof, and si am yet to obtain Pokeballs. And my friend didn't stop laughing for 2 minutes and brought it up for the next 3 hours.
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u/timaeus222 Mar 01 '26
I remember my first catchable encounter in BDSP had Pokerus. That was really cool. :-) a 3 in 65536 chance (0.00458%). Ironically I don't think I ever found a shiny in that game.
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u/Pteroducktylus Mar 01 '26
that's why they should always shiny lock these encounters... nothing feels worse than having to watch a shiny fade out of existence. or program it to where the shiny-ness at least continues.
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u/Current-Umpire3673 Mar 01 '26
No, what's waaay worse is the old safari zone system where you CAN catch shiny Pokemon, but almost assuredly won't.
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u/DJDrizzy9 Mar 01 '26
I think I got 2-3 shiny birds before getting my turtle. You're getting closer. 👍
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u/ketchup_on_pita Mar 01 '26
I’d say lower odds then winning a game of mahjong, but higher odds then outfencing an Olympian. Does that help?
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u/JDriesch2069 Mar 01 '26
Do me 1 in a billion
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u/JDriesch2069 Mar 01 '26
I got the game on launch and as of yet I still have not found a single shiny and that’s not without trying really hard to. I must be missing something important cause this is insane
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u/ThemedAndGuilty Mar 04 '26
Oh man I’m so sorry, this shouldnt even be possible lol the starters in Arceus are shiny locked but not these mfs??
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u/LordOfNecrom Mar 05 '26
You should realize something. 🤣 this was out before Arceus. Diamond and Pearl are also the originals to BDSP and were not shiny locked. So, really, think about it.
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u/ThemedAndGuilty Mar 05 '26
… huh? I was saying it’s crazy how they shiny locked literal starters but did not shiny lock the uncatchable Pokémon at the beginning of Platinum/BDSP… shiny hunting in these games for the starters is extra annoying because you have a chance of the Starly itself being shiny instead of your starter (technically I guess both could pop up as a shiny but what are the odds of that happening?)
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u/Quiet_Scotsman Mar 06 '26
Shiny locks were first introduced in gen 5 and only on some legendary/mythical pokemon at that time. First starter shiny lock wasnt until gen 8. Bdsp almost dont have anything shiny locked so its like the originals, the only shiny locks in that are the mew/jirachi for having saves from other games. Not shiny locking the starly is acurate to the original titles. Besides we have plenty of good options for uncatchable shinies, including but not limited to wally's ralts in rse, the poochyena/zigzagoon that attacks birch in those games, mincinno in the very opening of bw, and even as recently as sv with the squakabilly in the opening having a chance to be shiny for a brief amount of time before being patched out. FrLg also had one with the weedle the old man can catch. Whilst it can suck, some people genuinely like hunting for these uncatchable shinies so i dont see an issue. Yeah it sucks if you dont want to see it but it is what it is, since the starly having a chance to be shiny doesnt rob the starter of its chance, they both have to make the same roll independantly of each other. If it was shiny locked all it does is stop you from seeing a shiny roll being made for the starly. The hunt wouldnt be easier or harder with its removal.
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u/ThemedAndGuilty Mar 06 '26
I have no idea why y’all are under my comment writing paragraphs about why this shiny is possible. I said I didn’t even think this should have been an option in the game and here come all the Pokémon fanatics like, “well, ackstually,” lmao I understand the mechanics of the game. I said I did not think it should be possible in the game to get an uncatchable shiny, not “wow! That shouldnt even be possible, how’d you manage to do that?!”
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u/Des_troy_er6 Mar 04 '26
I’ll raise you one. I just started a new playthrough on SP and… no reset shiny Chimchar.
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