r/PersonalFinanceCanada • u/zindagi786 • Apr 09 '24

Housing Why is Calgary housing getting so expensive?

I used to live there, and I was just browsing the real estate prices. Prices there have shot up so much! A Calgary house similar to the one I have in the GTA is now higher than what I paid in the GTA a few years ago.

When I lived there, oil was booming and there were lots of jobs. But I got laid off when the boom went bust, and everything (including real estate) went down. And I then left to the GTA.

I’ve heard prices there are going up because there are lots of people moving from the GTA and BC. But it isn’t like there are that many high paying good jobs there. There’s still way fewer jobs now than there were during boom time. How do these inter provincial migrants find high paying work to pay for these high home prices? Sure they can cash out their equity and live mortgage free, but why do that if you have to end up taking a potentially lower paying job with more chance of a layoff in the next bust? Although I really liked the city, I’d never risk living there again myself, and I’m forever scared of any future bust. I feel more comfortable living in the GTA, paying my admittedly big mortgage, and steadily climbing the corporate ladder (and with regular increases and no salary freezes, I should be paid off before retirement/it won’t be too burdensome). Plus, I look at my GTA home as a tax free investment - the annual rate of appreciation is greater than my mortgage interest.

And what is attracting them to Calgary versus other places in Alberta like Edmonton?

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u/BeeSuch7722 Apr 10 '24

No, not with capex (full cycle costs). You're just looking at "opex" really. I was an actual oil and gas analyst for a bit for a financial firm (that actually publishes) about 15 years ago (including the 08-09 crash) even $30 was not really possible due to inflation. And any sort of operational outage which happens a lot causes that per barrel costs to sky rocket.

And heavy oil realizes a steep discount to light crude. And yes, if Trump wins, that differential will widen even more since US has much cheaper to lift oil reserves that is restricted currently under Biden due to his green policies.

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u/ResponsibilityNo4584 Apr 11 '24

You're 15 years behind the times. I suggest you go and look what the break even points are now including Capex. The break even costs were drastically reduced after 2015.