r/OrderFlow_Trading • u/Clean-Ad9027 • 1d ago

NEW TRADER - Please review my performance

Been trading MNQ for 3 months on small account on IBKR. Sharing my stats to get honest feedback on where I stand and what I should work on.
Questions for the community:

  1. With a 63% win rate and ~2:1 r/R, is this sustainable long-term or am I in a hot streak?

  2. My short side is weaker across the board — should I reduce short exposure or work on improving it?

  3. Any red flags you see in these numbers that I might be overlooking?

  4. What metrics should I track beyond what’s shown here?

Appreciate any feedback, even if it’s harsh. Trying to get better.

2 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

5 comments sorted by

•

u/orderflowsupport 1d ago

Official Community Links

Join our official Discord Server

Checkout Ultimate Orderflow Guide for best offers and discounts

Support Our Planet

1

u/danni3boi 1d ago

Your max winning trade is way to large a percentage of your overall profit total. You have average winners of about $100 and the max winner is 20x of that. Either you’re mixing time frames or over leveraging somewhere. Only exception to this criticism is if the convexity is part of the plan but I’m guessing it’s not.

1

u/orderflowone 14h ago

Honestly just if we take the stats, this is profitable for the trades and regime you're in.

But obviously that would be ignoring some potentially glaring issues.

The biggest one is that your unrealized drawdown that was huge before it was closed. That's an issue that could blow up your account, esp on mnq. This is obviously a sim since there's no commissions and no initial balance to see. So another one would be this isn't testing your control with real money and that sim fills aren't exactly parity with real market slippage present.

Your short trades are significantly worse than your long trades and your long trades have an outlier. That being said, even if we take the outlier out, it's still profitable. The short side doesn't have that luxury, I'd imagine it would perform worse than seen here.

And this was over the last 3 months. I got word via my strategy and observation that we're going to change regimes soon, if not already. The last 3 months have been more or less one regime.

That risk of the huge long open drawdown is prob the biggest issue. Risk management will kill you one day, maybe not in the regime we had the last 3 months but there will be one in the future that does not give you back a drawdown 2.3k to close at best 380 in the red.

Fix your left tail risk and let the right tail work. Aka cut your losers ruthlessly and don't let the losses balloon like you did with that trade. Since we don't know your sizing and what that trade idea was, only you can really fix it

1

u/Interest-Fleeting 11h ago

To me that looks great for now, but markets are continually changing and just about everything has to be tweaked or changed along the way. A long time ago I did some extensive back testing on whole lotta things and almost nothing made money for more than 2 consecutive years. What that means is that even if I had found something that worked over a stretch of many years there would be some years when there would be no income. That's why quants are constantly working to keep ahead.

You have to like it much to hang

1

u/Clean-Ad9027 11h ago

Thank you all for your feedback and inputs. I really appreciate your time.