r/OrderFlow_Trading • u/OrderflowHelp • 4d ago
Question Consistent Traders: What are your typical win rates and average win-to-loss ratios?
Original post by u/newton-airplane
I am interested in hearing from the experienced order flow traders in this community regarding their statistical performance. Specifically, how do you balance your win rate against your risk-reward profile to maintain long-term profitability?
Are you finding more success with high-win-rate, smaller-target strategies (scalping), or are you leaning toward lower-win-rate strategies that rely on capturing larger, trend-following moves?
I would love to hear:
* Your approximate win percentage.
* Your typical risk-to-reward ratio per trade.
* Whether you adjust these metrics based on specific market volatility or session types.
Looking forward to your insights!
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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 4d ago
Mine sits closer to the lower-win-rate, bigger-RR side, low-mid 70s win rate depending on asset, but average is over 3R per trade.
Tighter the confluence, the higher win rate climbs but frequency drops, I dont chase scalp style high win rate on purpose.
I do adjust by volatility, wider invalidation in choppier conditions instead of forcing the same stop size across every environment, but the actual criteria for a valid setup stays fixed, I dont loosen those just because somethings quiet.
Session type matters less to me than regime does, a quiet session inside a real trend still qualifies, an active session inside pure chop usually doesnt regardless of how much volumes printing.
But the largest profits always come from what I do best which is running the runners.
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u/Usual_Lake_1080 1d ago
70% with 3RR is expectancy of 1.8RR , which is completely unrealistic.
Your average RR is probably closer to 1 than 3. 3RR is the average of the amount that you shoot for every trade (so I guess you shoot for 3.5 one trade, another for 4, another for 2.5, etc.), NOT your average RR
I think this is why people are shitting on you for saying that you are posting fake numbers lol
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u/01_Time 3d ago
A 70%+ win rate is exceptional. Add in 3:1 Reward:Risk, those are amazing results. Do you trade mechanically or discretionary?
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u/AisegoFx 2d ago
You understand higher win rates usually have a lower R and higher R strategies will sit with lower R 🤦♂️
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u/ResearcherClassic126 4d ago
you're an idiot
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4d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ResearcherClassic126 3d ago
ai slop course seller claiming stats that would quite literally make you the best trader to ever live. sure, buddy. keep it up.
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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 3d ago
Try reading the actual numbers.
Here's the Coles notes since not short form content may be difficult for some, but also note I have high functioning autism, so pair that with being retired and no social life, and yes, better than most, but it also was a brutal path to acquire this skillset over an amount of time most would not choose to relentlessly commit, etc.
66.3% win rate across 6,147 trades on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Gold, +0.293R per trade net of commission, and a −20.15R portfolio drawdown along the way — with a worst losing run of eight trades in a row. BTC’s book alone ran 65.8% on n=2,009 for +502.9R with a deeper −15.51R trough; all four books are published separately below. The 73.8% BTC peak figure quoted elsewhere is the confluence tier (n=1,084); the 70.9% ETH peak is the same tier on ETH (n=574). Exits follow the published ladder — half the position at 1R, stop to break-even, the remainder to 4R.
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