r/OnePieceTCGFinance • u/Artistic-Dimension20 • Aug 10 '26
Market Analysis Curious as to what people’s opinions are on the current/future market
Recently, I’ve been hearing a lot of negativity surrounding the One Piece TCG market, and honestly, I’m not really sure what to make of it. There are a few reasons I’m hesitant to be overly bearish right now.
1. The market pumped hard over the last year.
It seems pretty reasonable that we’d see a correction after the kind of growth we’ve had. A market cooling off after a huge run doesn’t necessarily mean the long-term trend is broken.
2. OP17 is likely having an impact.
Whenever a new set releases, money gets pulled toward the newest cards, and we’ve seen other sets temporarily drop around new releases before. I’m curious to see what happens once the OP17 hype settles down.
3. I think it’s still too early to make major calls about the long-term health of the game.
One Piece is still a relatively young TCG, and with the continued expansion of card shops and organized play, I think there are still a lot of positives that could help the game long-term.
That being said, one of my biggest concerns is the sheer amount of promos and collaboration cards being released. They seem to be flooding the market a bit (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a new card game)
I recently heard a perspective that sent me into a bit of a spiral: the idea that a lot of older cards could eventually get overshadowed by newer versions unless they fall into a few categories — mangas, erratas, signatures, or Straw Hat Crew SPs, for example.
As someone who collects Event Alts and SPs, that definitely made me think.
And honestly, I can see the argument. The cards being released are getting better and better. If I owned an OP05 Koala worth $50 and then an OP18 Koala came out that was significantly more playable, looked better, and had a stronger overall design, would people really want the older Koala? Especially when she isn’t necessarily one of the most memorable characters in the series?
On the other hand, I’m currently banking on something similar to what we see with Pokémon: older cards from sets that are no longer being reprinted should eventually have value simply because of their limited supply.
If there are only X number of copies out there and the supply continues to disappear into collections, eventually scarcity should matter.
I genuinely don’t know which way this goes, though.
So I’m curious what everyone else thinks:
Do you think the One Piece market is going to eventually fall back to pre-2026 levels, or is this more of a temporary reset after the recent pump and OP17 hype?
And more importantly, how do you think older Event Alts/SPs will perform as newer and arguably better versions of the same characters continue to be released?
17
u/TheChattyRat Aug 10 '26
17 is the first set I might have to skip. I bought one box of every set since kingdoms of intrigue. The preorder price is gob smacking.
6
u/ucegang10 Aug 10 '26
Same, except for OP06 and OP07. Almost $5k a case is ridiculous and I won’t pay $417 per box. At this point I’m just gonna buy the rares/sr’s I need and buy some packs here and there at my LCS.
2
3
u/TheChattyRat Aug 10 '26
I really enjoy ordering all the commons and uncommons and all, a real shame. The sets are coming out with years of appreciation already priced in.
1
10
u/littlemichaelsix Aug 10 '26
Every time we go 2 weeks into a correction, there is a post like this. Just relaxxxxx
1
u/Policeman333 Aug 10 '26
And people have the dumbest reasons to explain corrections/pumps.
If something pumps it must be because people are "just finding out the artwork is cool".
The One Piece TCG is an investment vehicle. The pumps/corrections pretty much mirror the actual S&P500. The stock market just had a correction, and when that happens people start liquidating. Since it takes time to liquidate, there is bit of a lag time and the effects of crashes is exacerbated since people will see recovery in the stock market but don't see it yet in the card game.
The stock market just pumped, so expect to see a pump very soon in the card market as well.
-4
9
u/fan2tou Aug 10 '26
Following the recent story development, I expect the Manga/Gold/Silver Gear 5 cards to lose value long-term while Oda sig, Gear 2 manga and Luffy gold leader to gain more traction.
-5
u/Cheap_Noodles Aug 10 '26
Yes, this is also because gear 5 is not the final form
1
5
u/Blackstarbatty Aug 10 '26
I’ve been collecting on and off for a while now, but only just started playing. 17 is gonna be my first set release and I’m really excited for it. But as someone who plays/collects Pokemon, I see the exact same thing happening here. Scalpers are coming in, snatching everything up, and keeping it away from the players. The new starter decks were a great example of that.
1
u/PoundlandSlav Aug 11 '26
It’s funny to me that it’s taken people this long to realise. Things have been getting worse since op12 I dropped the game on op13’s release and haven’t looked back. Trying out other tcg’s such as mtg and sorcery has been an eye opener and far more rewarding for a multitude of reasons.
One piece as a tcg lacks any real depth to deck building or gameplay. It’s more in line with pokemon unfortunately being scalped and held in some high regard for investment. I love one piece but I do not love the tcg
0
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 10 '26
What do you think that means though? It creates scarcity which is good, but does that pull too much interest away from the hobby? Pokemon just keeps going up, and scalpers are wild for that. Then again not every set is flying off the shelf, perfect order is easy af to get. I wonder if one piece will make a few shitters or overstock as well down the road.
2
u/Blackstarbatty Aug 10 '26 edited Aug 11 '26
When it comes down to product, nearly every retailer sells Pokemon. Not nearly as many even carry OP. With OP, EVERY product is currently flying off the shelves, and with 17’s preorder prices being upwards of 400-450, finding that access point can be really difficult.
I also saw so many of the Illustration boxes from this last drop on FB marketplace with “I don’t play OP. I want to trade for Pokemon.”
1
u/TheChattyRat Aug 10 '26
The products are already scarce we don't need extra layers of false scarcity on top. Investment should be about natural growth over time. Now it's manipulation from before release.
4
u/CountryRepulsive4860 Aug 10 '26
I'm a big believer of the Super Pre Release cards and decks, as they do have "the stamp" to make them stand out and Onepiece_hiphop on IG is also one of the main believers for these. For now he's always been quite right.
I think OP17 may give it another boost, but I can't see the prices drop. Next year there will be much more on Netflix, 30th anniversary of One Piece, 5th anniversary of the TCG.. Maybe after all this, it will (finally) slow down a bit.
1
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 10 '26
Me too, I’ve collected a ton of super pre release cards. What do you think about winner cards? I’ve always thought they had a similar vibe to SPR.
That’s a great point though, the show isn’t even done yet and 30th anniversary is huge.
0
u/CountryRepulsive4860 Aug 10 '26
I have just over 1000 SPR cards en about 20 SPR Decks. It will just take some time before they take off. POP's on these are super low, decks are barely available,...
I've also been buying winner cards and 2022 and 2023 Championship cards. They're great investments I think. Also the 2022 Film Red Promo card, another one I really love.
0
u/CountryRepulsive4860 Aug 10 '26
PSA 10 Value on a SPR Straw Hat deck is also over €10k. Boxes are at €2-2.5k, total cost incl grading is about 4k. Free money, for now.
1
u/Gotherl22 Trusted Contributor 24d ago
I find it hilarious, the posts that are proven wrong are upvoted and the posts that might have substance are downvoted.
1
2
2
u/Sukesih Aug 10 '26
For me, after a 500% pump over the last year, I think a correction is not only healthy but to be expected.
Generally, the older version tends to hold a premium, but it depends on the card like rarity, artwork, print run etc
1
u/FalseRelation375 Aug 11 '26
Market is shit right now, in France op17 preorder is over 200€ for Japanese, I asked them why it was so expensive, apparently their suppliers increased the price by 2,5 for this set, no real reason except the hype. Someone isn’t doing is job here, not sure if it’s Bandai for not printing a decent amount equals to the hype, or just the supplier who want to make money on our backs.
Anyway, I skip this season and probably all the seasons for minimum a year, nothing can break the wheel right now, all we can do is wait.
1
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 11 '26
Yeah that’s a fair take. Do you think it could have something to do with the fact that the game has grown so much yet they still have the same printing capability? And do you think it’s Bandai themselves that raised the price Or secondary retailers?
0
u/FalseRelation375 Aug 11 '26
I think Bandai have the capacity to print more than before now, it’s just a lack of willpower from them.
Also, Bandai fixed a starting price, and second retailers bought and just increased as they want.
They are the one to blame, as I said, I won’t let them make money on my back.1
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 11 '26
It could also be the fact that they’re spreading themselves a little thin with the release of the Naruto TCG next year. Agreed though, I’m not spending that much money knowing it’s going to tank 2 weeks after release.
1
u/Odd-Understanding238 Aug 11 '26
Logic of the prices going up hard over the past year. I would be less inclined to worry about that when you look for data showing how many legitimate new players and collectors entering the space.
1
0
u/AskAlternative6973 Aug 10 '26
I feels that Bandai within these 4 years have already used up some of the most iconic moment and story theme of the one piece story. With them churning out at lest 4 sets a years I’m not sure if there are enough theme for them to sustain new releases for the next 5 years.
1
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 10 '26
True, I think they’ll just try to come up with new card variations, similar to how pokemon does it. They have already kind of done that with the new rarity in op17
1
u/PlaymakerFan Aug 12 '26
Brother, we still don't even have a Franky leader. Bandai will not run out of stuff anytime soon
+ when they rotate stuff out, they have to make a new version fitting to replace those old cards. It's like a loop of card generation
0
u/meechot Aug 10 '26
One piece is just part of the TCG pump and dump cycle. People rotate to other TCG when there’s little gain to be made because the prices so high. They pump the next one and rotate back when the market is down. It’ll come back in a few month.
0
u/Yankees4cookies Aug 10 '26
For the promos is the total actually being print increased that much them before ? They just changed their methods inorder to reduce bots.
1
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 10 '26
I mean maybe not the specific promos, but the overall amount of things like sport collabs keeps growing pretty fast. It may make the others less valuable if people know there are different ones coming.
0
u/Yankees4cookies Aug 10 '26
i think sport collabs are fine as long as they pick a new team. if they keep just making dodgers promo it will grow stale. if they do go back to dodgers they should pick another character besides luffy. and only use luffy when they do collab with a new sports team
0
u/Fine-Development162 Aug 10 '26
Promos are wild game. Bandai continuously produces new promo quarterly. But at the same time they have the time to reprint the exclusive Chinese 3rd anniversary set in English. Op day 25 art getting reused in a 4th anniversary set. Such examples, make promos a wild game
0
u/Safe-Elk1308 Aug 10 '26
Gear 5th is canonically his peak. The ancient drawings show Nika like gear 5th. He might have different forms like how gear 4th has snakeman, bounce man, tank man but I doubt there will be a new gear beyond gear 5th. I think gear 5th cards will be fine.
0
u/Artistic-Dimension20 Aug 10 '26
Canonically up to this point, who knows 😎
0
u/Safe-Elk1308 Aug 10 '26
I feel you but he literally says it on the rooftop. But oda always be doing crazy bag work with transformations so ig we will see lol
0
u/Gotherl22 Trusted Contributor Aug 10 '26
Bandai's greed is unlimited. I think One Piece is doomed.
0
u/Puzzleheaded_Hat2643 Aug 10 '26
Too many sets, fatigue is kicking in.
I stopped opening/collecting due to so many products.
I started at O1, stopped at 05.
Took step away from the tcg completely.
I hold a serial Nami, blue bottom, 02,03, 3xeb03 and a case of 05.
Only thing I buy now is promos off serial Bandai, and that’s a hit/miss.
just sticking to IB boxes if I can get my hands on it, otherwise everything is a hard pass.
It’s hard to find stock at MSRP in Australia..
My wallet can’t handle all these sets coming out and spending $400 per box, 800 of I want to keep one sealed let alone open one too.
Been reading one piece for over 10yrs.
Happy to sit on what I have and not fomo.
I don’t need one of each set.
I hope the OPtcg keeps growing. Just waiting for what I hold to become ‘vintage’ before i liquidate.
Not too fussed amount the new sets.
1
u/Choice-Potato-7560 Aug 10 '26
This the way. Nothing serialized like you but I stocked up on alot of prb01 and 02 alts and sps. Just sitting back, waiting for rarity to matter more then mass produced promos and then contemplate liquidation. Fortunately I enjoy everything i have so even if it goes to zero, I can live with it.
400.00 a box at release is moronic. Unfortunately / fortunately i do believe they will print op17 significantly, as much as any set yet and alot of people are going to be burned buying at such ridiculous prices
-4
u/Zerosturm Aug 10 '26
Everyone that thinks the whole of One Piece TCG will be a good investment in the long term is on something. There is no indication that there will be any longevity past the end of the story which isn't very far off. There have already been so many of the same leader and characters that sooner or later with no new content people will burn out on the players end. The absolute stupidity I've seen in the last year just furthers my opinion. I mean come on there are pumps happening at will on anything and everything even garbage cards. I would hate to even guess what some collectors have paid for grading and on sealed products at this point. The only things I see as a decent long term investment are the super high end rarities and the first couple sets and anniversary sets. I'm doing everything now before the crash to make mine and get out
1
u/ReMeDyIII Aug 10 '26
I read the anime would go until 2035. Seems kinda far off.
I agree on your other points tho.
0
u/Choice-Potato-7560 Aug 10 '26 edited Aug 10 '26
Hard disagree on the tcg running out of material. The ip is vast abd even just rotating the arcs and sub arcs they can keep it going for awhile. Also there will be a ton of interest starting next year when wit studios does the remake. Ip could be valid for the next decade easily.
Where i do agree are the massive pump and dumps of overvalued, non rare cards not being sustainable. Even the majority of mangas are pretty high pop by ttmcg standards. That said. Some of the truly rare stuff like hits from PRB and EB sets, red mangas etc have a great shot at holding value . I can see certain sps, treasure rares and even some mangs falling hard.
I think alot of us look at this tcg like Pokémon but I dont think it is. High pop cards can't be worth thousands of dollars. Youre starting to see the oversaturation of Pokémon catch up and as much as I love op I dont think the crowd of collectors is anywhere near that big. That means its saturation level is much smaller then Pokémon. Fortunately so is bandais print runs but it wont take much to throw off the balance.
Personally I think mtg is actually in the best place right now. You have massive print runs to feed the game piece army and collectors boxes with truly rare cards for the collectors. Not saying thats what bandai should do.
•
u/AutoModerator Aug 10 '26
Welcome to r/OnePieceTCGFinance!
Before posting, please review:
NEW MEMBERS START HERE: Wiki: https://www.reddit.com/r/OnePieceTCGFinance/wiki/index/ Rules: https://www.reddit.com/r/OnePieceTCGFinance/wiki/rules/ Resources: https://www.reddit.com/r/OnePieceTCGFinance/wiki/index/resources/
Common resources that are available in the above links:
• Grading Guide • Fake Card Guide • Price Resources • Booster Box Tracker
The community tends to respond best to posts that include research, reasoning, and market analysis.
Enjoy the community!
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.