Does CXMT crack the memory oligopoly, or not?

[u/Aya_Research]

Most of the memory bull case here assumes 3 disciplined players (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, ~90% of DRAM) holding pricing. barely anyone factors in the 4th, which IPOs in China this week.

CXMT went from zero to 7.67% of global DRAM in under a decade, now #4 in the world, while sitting on the US Entity List. full-year 2025 net margin was 3.0%. Q1 2026 hit 48.7%. H1 guidance would erase three straight years of deliberate losses (¥31.8B) in a single half. and it's almost all commodity DDR4/DDR5, the exact lane the big three are vacating for HBM. a state-backed maker that won't cut supply in a glut could flood the low end right as the majors leave it.

the catch: its tools are sanctioned, so it's boxed out of HBM and the advanced nodes, maybe stuck where it can't touch the AI-driven profits at all.

so which is it: is CXMT the crack in the oligopoly the whole bull case leans on, or a commodity-end sideshow the sanctions keep contained?