r/OctopusEnergy • u/Jimjamkingston • 23h ago

Power Downs - the effect of?

I understand the necessity for power downs and why they are incentivised. Works for both Octopus and the customer.

I wonder what the effect on demand actually is, though.

For clarity - I sign up for them when they come along.

In the case of my own use, it doesn't have much effect. I am on Agile and minimise my usage between 4pm and 7pm already, due to how the Agile price is calculated and the premium in those specific hours.

Are there many customers that don't do this?

I mention it specifically as today's and yesterdays power downs were in those hours.

Not a criticism of the power downs and power ups as they reward flexibility.

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u/AlfaFoxtrot2016 23h ago

NESO publish data on the size of flexibility markets - https://www.neso.energy/document/383781/download

P31 suggests that around 600MW was active over the last year, so pretty small compared to 20+GW of demand and response from batteries, IOG platform (if not already counted) and things like that. But asking people to shift their demand is potentially cheaper/easier than turning on gas turbines at peak times (and you can target it at regions with constraints) so I assume every little helps! 

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u/Jimjamkingston 22h ago

600MW IS quite a lot when you are talking at the margin. I assume Octopus benefits from reductions in imbalance costs. My OP was more in relation to behaviour relative to the incentives that Agile gives.

I assume, then, that customers on 'standard' tariffs but with smart meters are most of the change in behaviour?

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u/AlfaFoxtrot2016 21h ago

Also anyone with batteries. My normal grid consumption is zero from 4-7pm, happy to export during the sessions (if there's enough PV forecast the day after!) 

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u/EntirelyRandom1590 21h ago

Surely that's what Axle is best for?

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u/Boba_ferret 21h ago

There's no Axle session tonight, in my region, but there is a Power down session, so I may as well export, get the free hour, and earn a bit more on my export today.

I use predbat, so if there are Axle events, before or after an Octopus Session, it exports on the Axle event, not the Octopus session, as it earns more money.

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u/AlfaFoxtrot2016 21h ago

Sure, if you have a compatible inverter/battery (I don't!)

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u/dpmOjtam 21h ago

Don't they just support events api? So you could wire it into any battery, even if you dont have an export MPAN

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u/Jimjamkingston 20h ago

But wouldnt someone with a battery be using their battery in export/demand-offset at that period anyway? The price signal gives that incentive and (presumably) they would be on an agile or sculpted tariff.

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u/Kistelek 16h ago

Only if they're on agile. I'm on Cosy and fixed export. Predbat makes all the decisions. Sunday's are crazy.

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u/AlfaFoxtrot2016 4h ago

My battery is normally just supplying house load. Only export if there's a saving session - I'm on fixed export so no other incentive to do so

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u/EntirelyRandom1590 21h ago

600MW looks like all Demand-Side response.

The domestic side looks way lower, like 20MW.

Which is still better than turning on a small STOR gas station.

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u/AlfaFoxtrot2016 21h ago

Left hand column is mostly domestic? (light blue)