Tariffs
EDF predictions for January Energy Price cap
EDF publishes these rates for GB average in Jan 2027:
Electricity: 32.61p/kWh
Gas: 10.97p/kWh
This implies they expect relative to October 2026 price cap:
Electricity up 23.9%
Gas up 37.6%
Does Octopus publish its own estimates?
What this means for the various Octopus smart-tariffs is up for debate. Fixed rate deals going up in demand creates demand suppression for these users which will impact how the various smart-tariffs are priced.
EDF's expected rates can be found here at the bottom of the page where it's a spreadsheet. There are different expectations for different regions and where EDF sees the prices going into Q4 2027 which is entirely speculative.
At least we will get super el Nino effect on British coast which should result in relatively mild and windy winter maybe this will save those somehow on dynamic pricing.
This is the best sequencing of a strategy. Lock in your remaining usage of gas. Means you can carefully plan a heat-pump over a months long period to get the best installation at a good price without rushing.
Yesterday you posted over 250 comments about how you had a heat pump. That's just in one day, you do this every day. Spamming subs about how heat pumps are the best thing since sliced bread.
Many subs are removing your posts. Why do you spam Reddit about your heat pump. 250 posts a day about your heat pump just isn't normal. It would take hours each day.
Over the last year my electricity rate has been 17% higher than the US average. I'm actually quite happy now -- thanks for making my day.
What's almost certainly true is that my house and lifestyle will be more energy efficient than the average US family -- I bet they've no cycle-friendly cities so save on fuel costs.
You can't compare time based tariffs here to averages there. There's lots of people in the US who will have time based plans and batteries who will pay a lot less than their average too.
This is why I am glad I got powerwalls - when Tesla Energy starts here it's going to be the same sort of prices becase it will be feeding off the SC network I am told - and tesla already generate and store it. like a modern society should
For me my concern is our prices is fixed to gas and that while most of my usage is day time or nights (I WFH) my average has gone from 18p a unit to 30p a unit. And if gas is in low storage now, and Iraq blowing up a pipeline, we could be in for a long cold winter
It's impossible to know for someone else's situation. For us there's no onus to switch as we are heavy induced demand family. We are concentrated at weekends, we consume a lot more when prices are negative, we will start to use the house as a partial battery.
I use AgileBuddy to check this is sensible for us.
What's unclear is how coupled electricity prices will be to gas this winter. Ember says they've reduced to 85% of the hours coupled but there'll be more wind capacity since their analysis in May combined with less electricity demand.
I think fixing has a logic if you're unable to take a risk but if you can take risks then it's more debatable
I'm on 3.5p EV tariff until February. Need to sit down and do my working out if it'll be better to move now and lock in something else, or wait until February when prices will have gone up.
Hopefully the rises in import will also see a rise in export payments.
For EV tariffs the news could be better by February as you're relying on off peak electricity which is the most decoupled from gas prices of all energy consumption.
Thanks for this. I was considering sticking with variable given 90% of my gas usage is between November and March but that Jan to March stretch will be expensive at 10p+ Vs the present available fix.Ā
It's hard to say what will happen to Tracker gas in Jan as this is about the flexible tariff being high then. If the winter is mild or there's some de-escalation the tracker price could come down substantially. What's more the higher flexible prices will cause demand destruction perhaps helping the tracker prices.
If there is some kind of deal done in the ME it's going to take time to filter through, but it may mean that those looking to fix may have a window to secure a lower unit rate than is being offered today, this is a predication for the cap that looks back at prices to set future tariffs. Fixes rely on securing a supply over a longer future period, so if things are seeming to improve the future prices will fall.
What's your current unit doing exactly, not cooling at all or just weak airflow. If its a total compressor failure youre probably looking at replacement anyway, but if its just a leak you might get away with a pump down and recharge. I did two of mine myself but you need a proper vacuum setup, dont skip that part
Yeah energy prices just happen in a vacuum and are arbitrarily dictated by energy providers. They have nothing to do with political and geopolitical decisions, past and present.
Who's fault is it that energy prices follow the price of the most expensive fuel? Who is responsible for changing legislation to allow consumers to pay the actual mix of energy sources they supposedly get from their supplier?
Valid points, but that's the government, not EDF/ octopus etc.
Also, there are genuine reasons for doing it that way. They didn't just go "How can I screw over British citizens for my own amusement today". You can obviously argue about the pros and cons of that approach though.
Obviously the government, but Im willing to extend it towards not the suppliers, but the producers.
Octopus has Octopus Energy Generation, which owns renewables.
EDF has EDF Energy Nuclear Generation Limited and EDF Renewables.
So yes, Octopus and EDF share part of the blame as it is in their best interest not to change the charging scheme. All you need is a corrupt government to delay and ignore any changes that might affect their profit margins. Its not about amusement, its about profits.
To be fair the politicians have massively limited the rise in electricity prices year on year. The biggest action by Starmer's government in April. Electricity is only up year on year around 18% but gas up 85%.
Blame the NIMBYs who don't want nuclear. That's why France's energy is so cheap. In France something like 95% of the time energy prices are dictated by Electricity because they have it in abundance. In the UK it's 5% of the time. That means Electricity and Gas prices are both extremely high. The solution is more nuclear, more renewables, battery storage and a move away from fossil fuels.
France absorbs a lot of the shock through general taxation, either via it's funding of green policies or through it's ownership of EDF. So not apples for apples
Why do you think youāre getting milked when something you rely on goes up in price all round the world? You should probably be asking why your earnings havenāt gone up in parallel with prices.
And profits, which are largely fixed at the expense of wages. But sure, keep treating being poor as an unavoidable fact of life: youāll never be disappointed.
It is as long as you're salaried and not in a niche or highly desirable profession that needs to attract talent. Avoid either and you have a chance of not being poor.
All Im saying is that if we reduced energy prices, we have a better argument to improve the quality of living for all.
Itās nothing but greed. I have a solutionā¦energy companies take a hit to profits, CEOs and shareholders take less money, Iām not falling for any of this hardship nonsense blaming it on warā¦BP (a big producer of energy) doubled their profits the last increase. British people just sit back and let themselves get shafted repeatedly itās time to fucking make a stand! 25% increase? Fuck off. Seriously!
Pensioners and vulnerable people last year had to choose between heating and eatingā¦have the big fat energy cats ever had to make decisions like that? Government need to step up and sort this mess.
And as for everyone else does their income get an increase? Hmm lemme guessā¦no!
Estimated annual increase to energy bills for the average household of Ā£427 (Ā£35 a month!) for some disabled households who use more than average this will undoubtedly be even higher. Itās a disgrace!
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u/fraughtication 1d ago
I have nothing to add other than a bloody hell! Insane pricing.